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Öz

In our study, the question whether real exchange rates have long memory property or not is examined by the help of fractional integration analysis. In this respect, two different real exchange rate series for the Turkish lira, one is U.S.A. Dolarbased and the other is Euro-based, are constructed by using the monthly data for the period 2003:01 – 2013:07 and these series are tested within the ARFIMA model. Empirical findings show that the real exchange rate series which are fractionally integrated exhibit high persistence and long memory property

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Real Exchange Rate, Long Memory, Fractional Integration, ARFIMA

TÜRKİYE’DE REEL DÖVİZ KURLARININ UZUN HAFIZA ÖZELLİKLERİ: KESİRLİ BÜTÜNLEŞME ANALİZİ

Öz

Çalışmamızda, reel döviz kurlarının uzun hafıza özelliği taşıyıp taşımadığı kesirli bütünleşme analizi yardımıyla incelenmektedir. Bu bağlamda, 2003:01 – 2013:07 dönemine ait aylık veriler esas alınarak Türk lirası için biri A.B.D. Doları bazında, diğeri Euro bazında olmak üzere iki ayrı reel kur serisi oluşturulmuş ve seriler ARFIMA modeli çerçevesinde test edilmiştir. Ampirik bulgular, kesirli bütünleşik yapıda olan reel kur serilerinin yüksek direnç ve uzun hafıza özelliği taşıdığını göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Reel Döviz Kuru, Uzun Hafıza, Kesirli Bütünleşme, ARFIMA

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