MEASURING THE SENSITIVITY OF DIFFERENT MONTE CARLO MODELS IN FORECASTING AIRLINE STOCK PRICES

Olcay Ölçen

doi:10.17261/Pressacademia.2024.1925

MEASURING THE SENSITIVITY OF DIFFERENT MONTE CARLO MODELS IN FORECASTING AIRLINE STOCK PRICES

Abstract

Purpose- Monte Carlo Models are widely utilised by scientific research in a variety. Two research models are argued and designed regarding the Quasi and Pseudo Monte Carlo models in this paper. Methodology- The main research questions are formed here as “Which Monte Carlo model can give more effective results to USA Airline investors?”. There is a utilisation problem of Monte Carlo Models by investors. The research also will help to fill this gap. On the other hand, Sobol and Halton sequences are utilized to develop Quasi Monte Carlo Model. Findings- Quasi-Monte Carlo Models are given more real results than Pseudo Monte Carlo Models, especially in high number (5000) iterations. The results are specifically important for investors. The main disadvantage of the research is a random timespan that is out of a crisis or special event. Conclusion- According to research results of bias (the approximation to reality), the Quasi-Monte Carlo Model gives more efficient results than the Pseudo Monte Carlo Model regarding accuracy and sensitivity. Investors in the American Air Carriers financial market should be aware of this important reality.

Keywords

References

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Details

Primary Language

English

Subjects

Labor Economics, Finance, Business Administration

Journal Section

Research Article

Authors

Olcay Ölçen ^*
0000-0002-4835-1171
Türkiye

Publication Date

December 31, 2024

Submission Date

November 11, 2024

Acceptance Date

December 10, 2024

Published in Issue

Year 2024 Volume: 20 Number: 1

DOI

https://doi.org/10.17261/Pressacademia.2024.1925

IZ

https://izlik.org/JA95XA66HD

Cite

RIS / Bibtex

APA

Ölçen, O. (2024). MEASURING THE SENSITIVITY OF DIFFERENT MONTE CARLO MODELS IN FORECASTING AIRLINE STOCK PRICES. PressAcademia Procedia, 20(1), 56-65. https://doi.org/10.17261/Pressacademia.2024.1925

AMA

1.Ölçen O. MEASURING THE SENSITIVITY OF DIFFERENT MONTE CARLO MODELS IN FORECASTING AIRLINE STOCK PRICES. PAP. 2024;20(1):56-65. doi:10.17261/Pressacademia.2024.1925

Chicago

Ölçen, Olcay. 2024. “MEASURING THE SENSITIVITY OF DIFFERENT MONTE CARLO MODELS IN FORECASTING AIRLINE STOCK PRICES”. PressAcademia Procedia 20 (1): 56-65. https://doi.org/10.17261/Pressacademia.2024.1925.

EndNote

Ölçen O (December 1, 2024) MEASURING THE SENSITIVITY OF DIFFERENT MONTE CARLO MODELS IN FORECASTING AIRLINE STOCK PRICES. PressAcademia Procedia 20 1 56–65.

IEEE

[1]O. Ölçen, “MEASURING THE SENSITIVITY OF DIFFERENT MONTE CARLO MODELS IN FORECASTING AIRLINE STOCK PRICES”, PAP, vol. 20, no. 1, pp. 56–65, Dec. 2024, doi: 10.17261/Pressacademia.2024.1925.

ISNAD

Ölçen, Olcay. “MEASURING THE SENSITIVITY OF DIFFERENT MONTE CARLO MODELS IN FORECASTING AIRLINE STOCK PRICES”. PressAcademia Procedia 20/1 (December 1, 2024): 56-65. https://doi.org/10.17261/Pressacademia.2024.1925.

JAMA

1.Ölçen O. MEASURING THE SENSITIVITY OF DIFFERENT MONTE CARLO MODELS IN FORECASTING AIRLINE STOCK PRICES. PAP. 2024;20:56–65.

MLA

Ölçen, Olcay. “MEASURING THE SENSITIVITY OF DIFFERENT MONTE CARLO MODELS IN FORECASTING AIRLINE STOCK PRICES”. PressAcademia Procedia, vol. 20, no. 1, Dec. 2024, pp. 56-65, doi:10.17261/Pressacademia.2024.1925.

Vancouver

1.Olcay Ölçen. MEASURING THE SENSITIVITY OF DIFFERENT MONTE CARLO MODELS IN FORECASTING AIRLINE STOCK PRICES. PAP. 2024 Dec. 1;20(1):56-65. doi:10.17261/Pressacademia.2024.1925