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NEW FORESIGHT GENERATION AND FRAMEWORK OF FORESIGHT

Year 2017, , 224 - 233, 30.06.2017
https://doi.org/10.17261/Pressacademia.2017.593

Abstract

The article
starts with various definitions of technology foresight from the literature and
new definition is given by the authors. Prominent definitions of foresight are
analyzed and given according to their different elements in the literature. By
assessing the evolution of foresight as a term and its five generations through
time, the foresight of sixth generation is set forth. Based on the literature
analysis, foresight generations are grouped into four main categories.
Foresight frameworks are analyzed and a generic foresight functional model with
nine consecutive phases named ‘FORESIGHT’ is suggested. Functions in the
FORESIGHT model are matched with the phases of main foresight frameworks in the
literature based on their actions and artifacts within specific phases. It is
like a guide for practitioners of which activities are carried out in foresight
studies. 



 

References

  • J. Schatzmann, R. Schäfer, and F. Eichelbaum, “Foresight 2.0 - Definition, overview & evaluation,” Eur. J. Futur. Res., vol. 1, no. 1, p. 15, 2013.
  • J. Voros, “A Primer on Futures Studies,” Prospect Foresight Bull., vol. 6, no. 1, 2001.
  • R. Amara, “The Futures Field: Searching for Definitions and Boundaries,” Futurist, vol. 15, no. 1, pp. 25–29, 1981.
  • P. R. Kreibich, B. Oertel, and M. Wölk, “Futures Studies and Future-oriented Technology Analysis Principles, Methodology and Research Questions,” in Berlin Symposium on Internet and Society, 2011, pp. 1–53.
  • Z. Sardar, “The Namesake: Futures; futures studies; futurology; futuristic; foresight-What’s in a name?,” Futures, vol. 42, no. 3, pp. 177–184, 2010.
  • R. A. Slaughter, The Foresight Principle: Cultural Recovery in the 21st Century. London: Adamantine Press, 1995.
  • M. Conway, Foresight: an Introduction. Thinking Futures, 2015.
  • G. Steed and S. Tiffin, “A National Consultation on Emerging Technology,” in Science Council of Canada, 1986. [ B. R. Martin, “The origins of the concept of ‘foresight’ in science and technology: An insider’s perspective,” Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change, vol. 77, no. 9, pp. 1438–1447, 2010.
  • K. Cuhls, “From forecasting to foresight processes—new participative foresight activities in Germany.,” Forecast, vol. 22, pp. 93–111, 2003.
  • D. Loveridge, “Technology foresight and models of the future,” in CEC ASTPP Network Conference Ideas in Progress, 1996, no. Number 4.
  • A. Hines and J. Gold, “Professionalizing foresight: Why do it, where it stands, and what needs to be done,” J. Futur. Stud., vol. 17, no. 4, pp. 35–54, 2013.
  • B. R. Martin, “Foresight in science and technology,” Technol. Anal. Strateg. Manag., vol. 7, no. 2, pp. 139–168, 1995.
  • I. Nonaka and N. Konno, “The concept of ‘Ba’: BUILDING A FOUNDATION FOR KNOWLEDGE CREATION,” Calif. Manage. Rev., vol. 40, no. 3, pp. 40–54, 1998.
  • V. Kamtsiou, A. Naeve, L. K. Stergioulas, and T. Koskinen, “Roadmapping as a Knowledge Creation Process: The PROLEARN Roadmap,” J. Knowl. Manag., vol. 1, no. 3, pp. 163–173, 2006.
  • H. A. Linstone, “Three eras of technology foresight,” Technovation, vol. 31, no. 2–3, pp. 69–76, 2011.
  • B. R. Martin and R. Johnston, “Technology Foresight for Wiring Up the National Innovation System-Experiences in Britain, Australia, and New Zealand,” Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change, vol. 60, no. 1, pp. 37–54, 1999.
  • L. Georghiou, “The UK Technology Foresight Programme,” Futures, vol. 28, no. 4, pp. 359–377, 1996.
  • L. Georghiou, J. C. Harper, M. Keenan, I. Miles, and R. Popper, The Handbook of Technology Foresight: Concepts and Practice. Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar Publishing, Inc., 2008.
  • R. Barré, “Synthesis of Technology Foresight, Strategic Policy Intelligence: Current Trends, the state of Play and Perspectives,” 2001.
  • I. Miles and M. Keenan, “Practical Guide To Regional Foresight in the UK,” 2002.
  • I. Miles, “The development of technology foresight: A review,” Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change, vol. 77, no. 9, pp. 1448–1456, 2010.
  • J. C. Harper, “Vision Document, eFORESEE Malta ICT and Knowledge Futures Pilot, 2003.” 2003.
  • J. Voros, “A generalised ‘layered methodology’ framework,” Foresight J. Futur. Stud. Strateg. Think. Policy, vol. 7, no. 2, pp. 28–40, 2005.
  • M. Keenan, R. Popper, M. Alexandrova, D. Marinova, D. Tchonkova, and A. Havas, “Research infrastructures foresight (rif),” 2007.
  • R. Popper, “Foresight Methodology : an overview and more...” 2008.
  • R. Popper, “Dr. Popper’s Foresight and Horizon Scanning Blog-Futures.” 2011.
  • J. M. Schmidt, “Policy, planning, intelligence and foresight in government organizations,” Foresight, vol. 17, no. 5, pp. 489–511, 2015.
  • M. Jemala, “Evolution of foresight in the global historical context,” Foresight, vol. 12, no. 4, pp. 65–81, 2010.
  • G. Reger, “Technology Foresight in Companies: From an Indicator to a Network and Process Perspective,” Technol. Anal. Strateg. Manag., vol. 13, no. 4, pp. 533–553, 2001.
  • R. Boutellier, U. Deplazes, and K. Loffler, “Model of Technology Foresight: An innovative Approach,” in IEEE International Engineering Management Conference, 2007, pp. 7–14.
  • L. Georghiou and M. Keenan, “Evaluation of national foresight activities: Assessing rationale, process and impact,” Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change, vol. 73, no. 7, pp. 761–777, 2006.
  • R. Popper, L. Georghiou, M. Keenan, and I. Miles, Evaluating Foresight Fully-Fledged Evaluation of the Colombian Technology Foresight (CTFP). Universidad del Valle (Colombia), 2010.
  • S. Gieseke, “FLA as a means of participation in modern democratic decision-making,” in The Role of Forward-Looking Activities for the Governance of Grand Challenges, Insights from the European Foresight Platform, 2012.
  • M. Conway, “An Overview of Foresight Methodologies,” Thinking Futures. pp. 1–10, 2006.
  • O. Saritas, “Sytemic Foresight Methodology,” in Forth International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) FTA and Grand Societal Challenges – Shaping and Driving Structural and Systemic Transformations, 2011, p. 34.
  • J. C. Harper, “Impact of Technology Foresight,” 2013.
  • R. Studer, R. Benjamins, and D. Fensel, “Knowledge engineering: Principles and methods,” Data Knowl. Eng., vol. 25, no. 1–2, pp. 161–198, 1998.
  • A. Abdollahi, M. Fasanghari, M. Mohammedpour, M. Soltani, and M. Nili, “An Ontology Based Model for Technology Foresight,” in 2008 Third International Conference on Convergence and Hybrid Information Technology, 2008, vol. 1, pp. 510–514.
  • J. Voros, “A generic foresight process framework,” Foresight, vol. 5, no. 3, pp. 10–21, 2003.
  • A. Hines and P. Bishop, Thinking about the Future:Guidelines for Strategic Foresight. Washington, DC: Social Technologies LLC, 2007.
  • W. L. Schultz, “The cultural contradictions of managing change : using horizon scanning in an evidence-based policy context,” Foresight, vol. 8, no. 4, pp. 3–12, 2006.
  • Ma, “In Wikipedia. Retrieved April 10, 2017, from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ma_(negative_space).” .
  • Netocracy, “In Wikipedia. Retrieved April 22, 2017, from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Netocracy.” .
  • A. Bard and J. Soderqvist, NETOCRACY: The New Power Elite and Life After Capitalism. Stockholm: Pearson Education, 2002.
  • M. Hauben, “Preface: What is a Netizen.” pp. ix–x, 1995.
  • M. Lee, “Futurists and futurizens,” no. July. pp. 1–3, 2013.
Year 2017, , 224 - 233, 30.06.2017
https://doi.org/10.17261/Pressacademia.2017.593

Abstract

References

  • J. Schatzmann, R. Schäfer, and F. Eichelbaum, “Foresight 2.0 - Definition, overview & evaluation,” Eur. J. Futur. Res., vol. 1, no. 1, p. 15, 2013.
  • J. Voros, “A Primer on Futures Studies,” Prospect Foresight Bull., vol. 6, no. 1, 2001.
  • R. Amara, “The Futures Field: Searching for Definitions and Boundaries,” Futurist, vol. 15, no. 1, pp. 25–29, 1981.
  • P. R. Kreibich, B. Oertel, and M. Wölk, “Futures Studies and Future-oriented Technology Analysis Principles, Methodology and Research Questions,” in Berlin Symposium on Internet and Society, 2011, pp. 1–53.
  • Z. Sardar, “The Namesake: Futures; futures studies; futurology; futuristic; foresight-What’s in a name?,” Futures, vol. 42, no. 3, pp. 177–184, 2010.
  • R. A. Slaughter, The Foresight Principle: Cultural Recovery in the 21st Century. London: Adamantine Press, 1995.
  • M. Conway, Foresight: an Introduction. Thinking Futures, 2015.
  • G. Steed and S. Tiffin, “A National Consultation on Emerging Technology,” in Science Council of Canada, 1986. [ B. R. Martin, “The origins of the concept of ‘foresight’ in science and technology: An insider’s perspective,” Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change, vol. 77, no. 9, pp. 1438–1447, 2010.
  • K. Cuhls, “From forecasting to foresight processes—new participative foresight activities in Germany.,” Forecast, vol. 22, pp. 93–111, 2003.
  • D. Loveridge, “Technology foresight and models of the future,” in CEC ASTPP Network Conference Ideas in Progress, 1996, no. Number 4.
  • A. Hines and J. Gold, “Professionalizing foresight: Why do it, where it stands, and what needs to be done,” J. Futur. Stud., vol. 17, no. 4, pp. 35–54, 2013.
  • B. R. Martin, “Foresight in science and technology,” Technol. Anal. Strateg. Manag., vol. 7, no. 2, pp. 139–168, 1995.
  • I. Nonaka and N. Konno, “The concept of ‘Ba’: BUILDING A FOUNDATION FOR KNOWLEDGE CREATION,” Calif. Manage. Rev., vol. 40, no. 3, pp. 40–54, 1998.
  • V. Kamtsiou, A. Naeve, L. K. Stergioulas, and T. Koskinen, “Roadmapping as a Knowledge Creation Process: The PROLEARN Roadmap,” J. Knowl. Manag., vol. 1, no. 3, pp. 163–173, 2006.
  • H. A. Linstone, “Three eras of technology foresight,” Technovation, vol. 31, no. 2–3, pp. 69–76, 2011.
  • B. R. Martin and R. Johnston, “Technology Foresight for Wiring Up the National Innovation System-Experiences in Britain, Australia, and New Zealand,” Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change, vol. 60, no. 1, pp. 37–54, 1999.
  • L. Georghiou, “The UK Technology Foresight Programme,” Futures, vol. 28, no. 4, pp. 359–377, 1996.
  • L. Georghiou, J. C. Harper, M. Keenan, I. Miles, and R. Popper, The Handbook of Technology Foresight: Concepts and Practice. Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar Publishing, Inc., 2008.
  • R. Barré, “Synthesis of Technology Foresight, Strategic Policy Intelligence: Current Trends, the state of Play and Perspectives,” 2001.
  • I. Miles and M. Keenan, “Practical Guide To Regional Foresight in the UK,” 2002.
  • I. Miles, “The development of technology foresight: A review,” Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change, vol. 77, no. 9, pp. 1448–1456, 2010.
  • J. C. Harper, “Vision Document, eFORESEE Malta ICT and Knowledge Futures Pilot, 2003.” 2003.
  • J. Voros, “A generalised ‘layered methodology’ framework,” Foresight J. Futur. Stud. Strateg. Think. Policy, vol. 7, no. 2, pp. 28–40, 2005.
  • M. Keenan, R. Popper, M. Alexandrova, D. Marinova, D. Tchonkova, and A. Havas, “Research infrastructures foresight (rif),” 2007.
  • R. Popper, “Foresight Methodology : an overview and more...” 2008.
  • R. Popper, “Dr. Popper’s Foresight and Horizon Scanning Blog-Futures.” 2011.
  • J. M. Schmidt, “Policy, planning, intelligence and foresight in government organizations,” Foresight, vol. 17, no. 5, pp. 489–511, 2015.
  • M. Jemala, “Evolution of foresight in the global historical context,” Foresight, vol. 12, no. 4, pp. 65–81, 2010.
  • G. Reger, “Technology Foresight in Companies: From an Indicator to a Network and Process Perspective,” Technol. Anal. Strateg. Manag., vol. 13, no. 4, pp. 533–553, 2001.
  • R. Boutellier, U. Deplazes, and K. Loffler, “Model of Technology Foresight: An innovative Approach,” in IEEE International Engineering Management Conference, 2007, pp. 7–14.
  • L. Georghiou and M. Keenan, “Evaluation of national foresight activities: Assessing rationale, process and impact,” Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change, vol. 73, no. 7, pp. 761–777, 2006.
  • R. Popper, L. Georghiou, M. Keenan, and I. Miles, Evaluating Foresight Fully-Fledged Evaluation of the Colombian Technology Foresight (CTFP). Universidad del Valle (Colombia), 2010.
  • S. Gieseke, “FLA as a means of participation in modern democratic decision-making,” in The Role of Forward-Looking Activities for the Governance of Grand Challenges, Insights from the European Foresight Platform, 2012.
  • M. Conway, “An Overview of Foresight Methodologies,” Thinking Futures. pp. 1–10, 2006.
  • O. Saritas, “Sytemic Foresight Methodology,” in Forth International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) FTA and Grand Societal Challenges – Shaping and Driving Structural and Systemic Transformations, 2011, p. 34.
  • J. C. Harper, “Impact of Technology Foresight,” 2013.
  • R. Studer, R. Benjamins, and D. Fensel, “Knowledge engineering: Principles and methods,” Data Knowl. Eng., vol. 25, no. 1–2, pp. 161–198, 1998.
  • A. Abdollahi, M. Fasanghari, M. Mohammedpour, M. Soltani, and M. Nili, “An Ontology Based Model for Technology Foresight,” in 2008 Third International Conference on Convergence and Hybrid Information Technology, 2008, vol. 1, pp. 510–514.
  • J. Voros, “A generic foresight process framework,” Foresight, vol. 5, no. 3, pp. 10–21, 2003.
  • A. Hines and P. Bishop, Thinking about the Future:Guidelines for Strategic Foresight. Washington, DC: Social Technologies LLC, 2007.
  • W. L. Schultz, “The cultural contradictions of managing change : using horizon scanning in an evidence-based policy context,” Foresight, vol. 8, no. 4, pp. 3–12, 2006.
  • Ma, “In Wikipedia. Retrieved April 10, 2017, from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ma_(negative_space).” .
  • Netocracy, “In Wikipedia. Retrieved April 22, 2017, from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Netocracy.” .
  • A. Bard and J. Soderqvist, NETOCRACY: The New Power Elite and Life After Capitalism. Stockholm: Pearson Education, 2002.
  • M. Hauben, “Preface: What is a Netizen.” pp. ix–x, 1995.
  • M. Lee, “Futurists and futurizens,” no. July. pp. 1–3, 2013.
There are 46 citations in total.

Details

Journal Section Articles
Authors

Nurdan Yuksel This is me

Hasan Cifci This is me

Serhat Cakir This is me

Publication Date June 30, 2017
Published in Issue Year 2017

Cite

APA Yuksel, N., Cifci, H., & Cakir, S. (2017). NEW FORESIGHT GENERATION AND FRAMEWORK OF FORESIGHT. PressAcademia Procedia, 5(1), 224-233. https://doi.org/10.17261/Pressacademia.2017.593
AMA Yuksel N, Cifci H, Cakir S. NEW FORESIGHT GENERATION AND FRAMEWORK OF FORESIGHT. PAP. June 2017;5(1):224-233. doi:10.17261/Pressacademia.2017.593
Chicago Yuksel, Nurdan, Hasan Cifci, and Serhat Cakir. “NEW FORESIGHT GENERATION AND FRAMEWORK OF FORESIGHT”. PressAcademia Procedia 5, no. 1 (June 2017): 224-33. https://doi.org/10.17261/Pressacademia.2017.593.
EndNote Yuksel N, Cifci H, Cakir S (June 1, 2017) NEW FORESIGHT GENERATION AND FRAMEWORK OF FORESIGHT. PressAcademia Procedia 5 1 224–233.
IEEE N. Yuksel, H. Cifci, and S. Cakir, “NEW FORESIGHT GENERATION AND FRAMEWORK OF FORESIGHT”, PAP, vol. 5, no. 1, pp. 224–233, 2017, doi: 10.17261/Pressacademia.2017.593.
ISNAD Yuksel, Nurdan et al. “NEW FORESIGHT GENERATION AND FRAMEWORK OF FORESIGHT”. PressAcademia Procedia 5/1 (June 2017), 224-233. https://doi.org/10.17261/Pressacademia.2017.593.
JAMA Yuksel N, Cifci H, Cakir S. NEW FORESIGHT GENERATION AND FRAMEWORK OF FORESIGHT. PAP. 2017;5:224–233.
MLA Yuksel, Nurdan et al. “NEW FORESIGHT GENERATION AND FRAMEWORK OF FORESIGHT”. PressAcademia Procedia, vol. 5, no. 1, 2017, pp. 224-33, doi:10.17261/Pressacademia.2017.593.
Vancouver Yuksel N, Cifci H, Cakir S. NEW FORESIGHT GENERATION AND FRAMEWORK OF FORESIGHT. PAP. 2017;5(1):224-33.

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