OLAYLAR VE YORUMLAR

Yıl 2022, Sayı: 46, 11 - 45, 30.12.2022

Alev Kılıç

Öz

Bu incelemede 2020 yılında meydana gelen 44 gün savaşı sonrası Azerbaycan ile Ermenistan arasında başlayan barış anlaşması süreci, Ermenistan’daki iç gelişmeler, dış dinamikler ve Türkiye-Ermenistan ilişkilerinin Haziran-Kasım 2022 tarihleri arasında gösterdiği gelişmeler ele alınmaktadır. Savaşın sona ermesinin ve Moskova’da Rusya’nın katılımıyla Azerbaycan ve Ermenistan taraflarınca imzalanan ateşkes anlaşmasının üzerinden iki yıl geçmesine rağmen barış anlaşmasının imzalanamamıştır. Bu aksaklığı Ermenistan’ın oyalama taktiklerine başvurarak bölgede farklı çıkarları bulunan üçüncü tarafları kullanıp mağlubiyet sonrası kayıplarını en aza indirme ve birtakım kazanımlar elde etme gayretleriyle açıklamak mümkündür. Diasporada militan-radikal bir kesim, içeride de Taşnaksutyun-EDF güdümüne girmiş sayıca az ancak militan bir muhalefet, hükümetin barış girişimlerine aktif olarak karşı koymaktadır. Bu durum yönetimi rahatsız etse de uygun bir bahane de yaratıyor gibi de görünmektedir. Barış anlaşmasının önündeki en ciddi engel sınırların tespitidir. Zira bu Karabağ’ın Azerbaycan sınırları içinde olduğunun resmen tanınmasını sağlayacaktır. Bunu perdelemek üzere yapay bir engel olarak Zangezur koridoru konusu ön plana çıkarılmaktadır. Dış ilişkilerde Rusya’nın hışmını çekmeden Batı’ya yanaşma çabaları, yeniden gündeme gelen çok vektörlü dış politika anlayışıyla uygulanmaktadır. ABD ve Fransa, daha tarafsız ve apolitik görünüm veren AB’nin de desteğiyle Ermenileri bu yönde cesaretlendirmekte, hatta tahrik etmektedir. Türkiye ile ilişkiler normalleşme süreci kapsamında adım adım da olsa ilerlemektedir. Ancak Ermenistan’ın Türk ve Türkiye karşıtı yaklaşımları bu süreçten hiçbir şekilde etkilenmemiş görünmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Paşinyan, Kaçaturyan, Mirzoyev, Diaspora, Dünya Kiliseler Birliği, Taşnaksutyun-EDF, II. Karekin, I. Aram, Pelosi, Zangezur Koridoru

FACTS AND COMMENTS

Öz

This article covers domestic and international developments of Armenia, the process for concluding the peace agreement with Azerbaijan following the 44-day war of 2020 and Türkiye-Armenia relations in the period of June-November 2022. Two full years have elapsed since the end of the war and the cease-fire agreement signed by the leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia in Moscow with the participation of the Russian President. It is possible to explain this lapse with the efforts of Armenia using delaying tactics as it appeals to third states with own interests in the region, to minimize its losses and make some gains. There is an active resistance to the peace agreement initiatives of the government also by a radical-militant group in the Diaspora and an opposition in the country, small in numbers but led by the militant Dashnaksutyun-ARF. This is certainly a nuisance for the government, yet it also appears to provide it with a passable excuse. The most serious challenge before the peace agreement is the issue of delimitation and demarcation of the borders as it would lead to the acknowledgement of Karabakh to be within the boundaries of Azerbaijan. With a view to obviating this, an artificial and disputable issue called the Zangezur Corridor is being pushed to the fore. In foreign policy, the efforts to shift to the West without drawing the ire of Russia is being carried out with the re-fashioned concept of multi-vector foreign policy. The US and France, with the assistance of a more neutral and apolitical acting EU, came to the fore in encouraging, even instigating Armenians in this direction. Relations with Türkiye are moving forward in a step-by-step approach within the process of normalization. On the other hand, the long-established anti-Turk and anti-Türkiye stand of Armenia does not seem to be restrained despite this process.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Pashinyan, Khachaturyan, Mirzoyev, Diaspora, World Council of Churches, Dashnaksutyun-ARF, Karekin II, Aram I, Pelosi, Zangezur Corridor

Kaynakça

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