The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility and Inflation on Average Tourist Expenditures: Empirical Evidence from Türkiye

İbrahim Halil Uçar; Gülümser Palta

The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility and Inflation on Average Tourist Expenditures: Empirical Evidence from Türkiye

Abstract

This study aims to empirically investigate the theoretical relationship between exchange rate, inflation and average tourist expenditure within the context of the Turkish economy. The causal relationship between the exchange rate, inflation and average tourist expenditure has been investigated by using the Toda-Yamamoto test. According to the findings of the Toda-Yamamoto test, a one-way causality at a 5% significance level from average tourist expenditure to inflation and bidirectional causality at a 1% significance level between the exchange rate and inflation have been identified. On the other hand, no causal relationship has been found between average tourist expenditure and the exchange rate. The co-integration, long and short-term relationships among the parametres have been analyzed by using the ARDL (4,0,0) bound testing model. The F-statistic value estimated by utilizing the ARDL (4,0,0) model had remained below the upper bound values determined by Pesaran et al. (2001) at the 1% and 5% significance levels. This result led to the acceptance of the null hypothesis, which states that there is no long-run co-integration relationship between the parametres. Consequently, it has been concluded that there is no significant co-integration relationship between average tourist expenditures and the exchange rate and inflation in the long term. The findings of the study indicate that changes in exchange rates and inflation have no statistically significant effect on average tourist expenditure.

Keywords

Ethical Statement

During the writing process of the study “The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility and Inflation on Average Tourist Expenditures: Empirical Evidence from Türkiye” scientific rules, ethical and citation rules were followed. No falsification was made on the collected data and this study was not sent to any other academic publication medium for evaluation.

References

Achyar.D.H&Hakim.D. B., (2021) Cointegration Analysis of Tourism Sector, Inflation, Interest Rate and Economic Growth in a Special Autonomy Region of Aceh Province, Indonesia, International Journal of Scientific Research in Science, Engineering and Technology, 8 (1); 216-221; doi: https://doi.org/10.32628/IJSRSET218144
Akarsu.G (2023) Interrelationships between Tourist Arrivals, Exchange Rate, Inflation and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence for Türkiye, World Journal of Applied Economics 9(1): 49-76; doi: 10.22440/wjae.9.1.3
Athari.S. A., Alola.U.V., Ghasemi.M&Alola.A.A., (2020) The (Un)sticky Role of Exchange and Inflation Rate in Tourism Development: Insight from the Low and High Political Risk Destinations, ResearchGate Current Issues in Tourism; 1-18. https://doi.org/10.1080/13683500.2020.1798893
Balım, H & Durgun Kaygısız, A., (2022). Türkiye’de Turizm, Enflasyon İlişkisinin Ampirik Analizi. Politik Ekonomik Kuram, 6(2), 279-303. Doi:10.30586/pek.1187013
Bhatia, A.; Singh, K. & VinodNaik (2024). Effective Exchange Rate Volatility and its Effect on Tourism Demand in India: a cointegration analysis. Anais Brasileiros de Estudos Turísticos, 14(1).1-6; DOI: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11187707
Baykul.A., (2024) Döviz Kuru Dalgalanmalarının Türkiye'nin Turizm Gelirleri Üzerindeki Etkisi, Uluslararası Global Turizm Araştırmalar Dergisi, 8(2);101-111;https://doi.org/10.58670/ijgtr.1598422
Belloumi.M., (2010) The Relationship Between Tourism Receipts, Real Effective Exchange Rate and Economic Growth in Tunisia, International, Journal of Tourism Research. 12, 550–560; DOI: 10.1002/jtr.774.
Bingöl.N., Pehlivan.C&Han.A (2020) Turizm Gelirleri-Makro Değişkenler Arasındaki İlişkinin Türkiye için Ampirik Olarak İncelenmesi, Ekev Akademi Dergisi,24(82), 245-262.

Cheng.K.M., Kim.H&Thompson.H (2013) The Exchange Rate and US Tourism Trade, 1973–2007, Tourism Economics, 19 (4), 883–896; doi: 10.5367/te.2013.0227.
Demirel.B., Alparslan.B., Bozdağ.E&Inci.A. G (2013) The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on Tourism Sector: A Case Study, Türkiye, Niğde Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 6(2),117-126.
Dritsakis.N&Gialetak.K (2004). Cointegration Analysis of Tourism Revenues by the Member Countries of European Union to Greece, ResaerchGate Tourism Analysis • January 2004,1-23.
Esen.E., Yıldırım.S&Kostakoğlu.F (2012) Feldstein-Horioka Hipotezinin Türkiye Ekonomisi İçin Sınanması: ARDL Modeli Uygulaması, Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi İIBF Dergisi, 7(1), 251-267.
Gülcü.Y., (2024) Türkiye’de Reel Döviz Kuru ile Turizm Geliri İlişkisi, Akademik Yaklaşımlar Dergisi ,15(2),844-858
Gündüz, S., Çeken, H., Yazıcıoğlu, İ. (2023). Türkiye’de Reel Efektif Döviz Kurunun Turist Başına Düşen Ortalama Harcama Miktarı Üzerindeki Etkisi, İşletme Araştırmaları Dergisi, 15 (3), 2402-2412
Fibriyani.V., Akramiah.N&Pudyaningsih.R., (2024) The Influence of Inflation Rates on International Tourist Arrivals via Air Gateways in Indonesia During 2017‐2024; Proceeding of the International Conference on Economics, Accounting, and Taxation, 1(2);450-459
Hui Yi.J.T., Roslan.R.R., Kadir.N.H., Abdullah.N.A., Abisuan.N.S., Ishak.N., Yusoff.S.N.M& Muniran.A (2020), Analysis on the Relationship between Tourist Arrival and Unemployment in Malaysia, International Journal of Business and Technopreneurship, 10(2), 269-278
Işık.C., (2010) Türkiye’de Yabancı Ziyaretçi Harcaması ve Turizm Gelirleri İlişkisi: Bir Eşbütünleşme Analizi (1970- 2008), Sosyoekonomi 2010-2/100206, 116-128.
Kanca.O.C., (2015) Turizm Gelirleri ve Ekonomik Büyüme: Türkiye Örneği (1980-2013), Marmara Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, Sayı 8, Aralık 2015, 1-14. https://dergipark.org.tr/en/download/article-file/3347800
Karadağ.H (2021) Türkiye Ekonomisinde Turizm Gelirlerinin TÜFE’ye Etkisinin Incelenmesi: MWALD Temelli Nedensellik Analizi, Journal of Tourism Intelligence and Smartness, 4(1), 31-42.
Khandaker.S&Islam.S.Z., (2017) International Tourism Demand and Macroeconomic Factors, International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 7(5), 389-393.
Manasseh.C.O., Abada.F.C., Ogbuabor.J.E., Onwumere.J.U., Urama.C. E&Okoro.O.E., (2018) The Effects of Interest and Inflation Rates on Consumption Expenditure: Application of Consumer Spending Model, International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 8(4), 32-38.
Meoa.M.S., Chowdhuryb.Ö.A.F., Shaikh.G.. A., Alid.M&Sheikh.S.M., (2018) Asymmetric Impact of Oil Prices, Exchange Rate, and Inflation on Tourism Demand in Pakistan: New Evidence from Nonlinear ARDL, Asia Pacific Journal of Tourism Research,23(4), 408–422; https://doi.org/10.1080/10941665.2018.1445652
Mestanoğlu.M&Yıldırım.H.H (2021) Döviz Kurundaki Değişimin Turizm Sektörü Üzerindeki Etkisi; Türkiye Örneği, Econder International Academic Journal, 5 (2): 119-144
Naidu.S., Chand.A &Pandaram.A., (2017) Exploring the Nexus Between Urbanisation, Inflation and Tourism Output: Empirical Evidence from the Fiji Islands, Asia Pacific Journal of Tourism Research, 22(10),1021–1037
Nkoro, E&Uko, A. K. (2016). Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) cointegration technique: application and interpretation. Journal of Statistical and Econometric Methods, 5(4), 63-91.
Öcal.O., Kum.H & Özsolak.B., (2021) Türkiye’de Turist Sayısını Etkileyen Makroekonomik Faktörler: 1990-2017 Dönemi VAR Analizi Örneği, Anadolu Akademi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 3(2), 1-24.
Oğan E& Sevim U.. (2020). Reel Döviz Kuru ile Turizm Sektörü Arasındaki Nedenselliğin Değerlendirilmesi: Türkiye Örneği. Gümüşhane Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Elektronik Dergisi, 11(3), 858-869.
Özcan.C.C (2015) Türkiye’de Turizm Gelirinin Makroekonomik Belirleyicileri: Panel Veri Analizi Ç.Ü. Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 24(1), 203-220.
Palaios.P., Sarker.P. K&Leventis.F (2025) Inflation in Tourism Sector: New Evidence From Climate and Geopolitical Spillover Effects, International, Journal of Tourism Research, 1-19; https://doi.org/10.1002/jtr.70116
Raifu.I.A&Afolabi.J.A., (2024) Does Rising Inflation Affect the Tourism Industry? Evidence from Nigeria, Journal of Policy Research in Tourism, Leisure and Events https://doi.org/10.1080/19407963.2024.2314495
Rathnayake.G.I., (2018) Effect of Exchange Rate Volatility on Sri Lanka's Inbound Tourist Flow, Central Bank of Sri Lanka – Staff Studies, 48(2); 41-81; http://doi.org/10.4038/ss.v48i2.4712
Rookayyah.I., Seetanah.B., Nunkoo&KhanJaffur.Z (2024) The Impact of Exchange Rate and Exchange Rate Volatility on Tourism Demand Using Disaggregated Data, Wiley International Journal of Tourism Research Article. 2024; 26: e2640; https://doi.org/10.1002/jtr.2640
Saayman., A &Melville Saayman., M., (2012) Exchange Rate Volatility and Tourism Revisiting the Nature of the Relationship, European Journal of Tourism Research,6(2),104-121
Shan.J & Wilson.K., (2001) Causality Between Trade and Tourism: Empirical Evidence from China, Applied Economics Letters, 2001, 8, 279-283.
Shaari.M. S., Ahmad.T. S&Razali.R., (2018) Tourism Led-Inflation: A case of Malaysia, MATEC Web of Conferences 150, 06026;1-6. Doi: Https://Doi.Org/10.1051/Matecconf/201815006026
Şen, A., Şit, M., (2015) Reel Döviz Kurunun Türkiye’nin Turizm Gelirleri Üzerindeki Etkisinin Ampirik Analizi, Journal of Yasar University,10(40), 6752-6762.
Sevinç.V (2013) Türkiye’ye Gelen Yabancı Turist Sayısı, Amerikan Doları Kuru ve Ekonomik Kriz Yılları Arasında Bir Granger Nedensellik İlişkisi Analizi, Ekonomik ve Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 9(2), 233-249.
Şit.M&Şen.A (2022). Türkiye Ekonomisinde Turizm Gelirleri ve Enflasyon İlişkisinin Ampirik, Analizi, Turizm Akademik Dergisi, 01 (2022) 209-218.
Tengilimoğlu.E&Kuzucu.S.C., (2019) Döviz Kuru Oynaklıkları Turist Başına Düşen Ortalama Harcamayı Etkiler mi? 2003-2018 Yılları Arasında Bir Nedensellik Analizi, V Human & Civilization Congress from Past to Future INES 2019, 148-156.
Thompson.A& Thompson.H (2010) The Exchange Rate, Euro Switch and Tourism Revenue in Greece, ResearchGate Tourism Economics •September 2010; 1-17
Timur, M. C. & Mert, N. (2021), Turizm Gelirleri ve Reel Döviz Kuru Arasındaki Asimetrik İlişkinin Analizi, Fiscaoeconomia, 5(1), 219-237.
Uğuz.S. Ç&Topbaş.F (2011) Döviz Kuru Oynaklığı Turizm Talebi ilişkisi: 1990-2010 Türkiye Örneği, Anadolu International Conference in Economics II June 15-17, Eskişehir, Türkiye, 1-12
Yakıca Ayan T. & Değirmenci N. (2024). Factors Affecting International Tourism Demand for Türkiye: Gravity Model-Fuzzy Regression. Gümüşhane Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 15(2), 577-586.
Yıldırım.B.I., Yıldırım.F&Gülmez.M (2017) Türkiye’de Enflasyon ve Turizm Gelirleri İlişkisi Üzerine Ekonometrik Bir Analiz, Uluslararası Iktisadi ve Idari Bilimler Dergisi Özel Sayı 1, 69-81
Yong.E. L (2014) Innovation, Tourism Demand and Inflation: Evidence from 14 European Countries, Journal of Economics, Business and Management, 2(3), 191-194. https://doi.org/10.1080/10941665.2017.1360923

Details

Primary Language

English

Subjects

Tourism Economics

Journal Section

Research Article

Authors

İbrahim Halil Uçar ^*
0000-0002-6046-1285
Türkiye

Gülümser Palta
0000-0002-9039-6939
Türkiye

Publication Date

January 7, 2026

Submission Date

November 9, 2025

Acceptance Date

January 4, 2026

Published in Issue

Year 2026 Number: 102

IZ

https://izlik.org/JA35EZ53HF

Cite

RIS / Bibtex

APA

Uçar, İ. H., & Palta, G. (2026). The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility and Inflation on Average Tourist Expenditures: Empirical Evidence from Türkiye. Reforma, 102, 115-131. https://izlik.org/JA35EZ53HF

AMA

1.Uçar İH, Palta G. The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility and Inflation on Average Tourist Expenditures: Empirical Evidence from Türkiye. Reforma. 2026;(102):115-131. https://izlik.org/JA35EZ53HF

Chicago

Uçar, İbrahim Halil, and Gülümser Palta. 2026. “The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility and Inflation on Average Tourist Expenditures: Empirical Evidence from Türkiye”. Reforma, nos. 102: 115-31. https://izlik.org/JA35EZ53HF.

EndNote

Uçar İH, Palta G (January 1, 2026) The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility and Inflation on Average Tourist Expenditures: Empirical Evidence from Türkiye. Reforma 102 115–131.

IEEE

[1]İ. H. Uçar and G. Palta, “The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility and Inflation on Average Tourist Expenditures: Empirical Evidence from Türkiye”, Reforma, no. 102, pp. 115–131, Jan. 2026, [Online]. Available: https://izlik.org/JA35EZ53HF

ISNAD

Uçar, İbrahim Halil - Palta, Gülümser. “The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility and Inflation on Average Tourist Expenditures: Empirical Evidence from Türkiye”. Reforma. 102 (January 1, 2026): 115-131. https://izlik.org/JA35EZ53HF.

JAMA

1.Uçar İH, Palta G. The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility and Inflation on Average Tourist Expenditures: Empirical Evidence from Türkiye. Reforma. 2026;:115–131.

MLA

Uçar, İbrahim Halil, and Gülümser Palta. “The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility and Inflation on Average Tourist Expenditures: Empirical Evidence from Türkiye”. Reforma, no. 102, Jan. 2026, pp. 115-31, https://izlik.org/JA35EZ53HF.

Vancouver

1.İbrahim Halil Uçar, Gülümser Palta. The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility and Inflation on Average Tourist Expenditures: Empirical Evidence from Türkiye. Reforma [Internet]. 2026 Jan. 1;(102):115-31. Available from: https://izlik.org/JA35EZ53HF