TÜRK CUMHURİYETLERİNDE TURİZM-İKTİSADİ BÜYÜME İLİŞKİSİ: PANEL NEDENSELLİK ANALİZİ

Year 2018, Issue: 80, 35 - 44, 30.12.2018

Zamira Oskonbaeva

Abstract

Bu çalışmanın amacı geçiş sürecindeki Türk Cumhuriyetlerinde turizm ve iktisadi büyüme arasındaki ilişkiyi 1995-2014 dönemine ait yıllık verileri kullanarak incelemektir. Bu bağlamda üç aşamalı Panel Granger nedensellik testi uygulanmıştır. İlk olarak serilerin durağanlığı Panel birim kök testi yardımıyla araştırılmıştır. Daha sonra bütünleme mertebeleri aynı olan seriler için eşbütünleme testi uygulanmıştır. Son olarak Panel Granger nedensellik testi aracılığıyla değişkenler arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisi ortaya konulmaya çalışılmıştır. Elde edilen bulgulara göre büyümeden turizme doğru kısa dönem nedensellik ilişkinin mevcut olduğu kanısına varılabilir.

Keywords

iktisadi büyüme, panel veri analizi, turizm, geçiş ekonomileri, Türk Cumhuriyetleri

TOURISM AND ECONOMIC GROWTH RELATIONSHIP IN THE TURKIC COUNTRIES: PANEL CAUSALITY ANALYSIS

Abstract

The aim of this study is to examine the relationship between tourism and economic growth in the Turkish Republics using annual data for the period 1995-2014. In this context, a three-step Panel Granger causality test was applied. First, the stability of the series was investigated by means of the panel unit root test. Then panel co-integration test was applied to the series integrated of the same order. Finally, the causality relationship between the variables was examined through the Panel Granger causality test. According to the findings obtained, it can be concluded that there is a short term causality relationship running from economic growth to tourism.

Keywords

economic growth, panel data analysis, tourism, transition economies, Turkish Republics

ВЗАИМОСВЯЗЬ МЕЖДУ ТУРИЗМОМ И ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКИМ РОСТОМ В ТЮРСКИХ РЕСПУБЛИКАХ: АНАЛИЗ ПРИЧИННО-СЛЕДСТВЕННЫХ СВЯЗЕЙ

Abstract

Целью этого исследования является изучение взаимосвязи между туризмом и экономическим ростом в тюркских республиках в переходный период с использованием годовых данных за период 1995-2014 гг. В этих рамках к анализу панельных данных был применен трехступенчатый тест причинности Грейнджера. Сначала стационарность данных была исследована с помощью теста на единичный корень. Затем был применен коинтеграционный тест. В заключение с помощью теста Грейнджера была выявлена связь между экономическим ростом и туризмом. Согласно полученным результатам анализа существует краткосрочная однонаправленная причинно-следственная связь между переменными, идущая от экономического роста к туризму.

Keywords

экономический рост, анализ панельных данных, туризм, страны с переходной экономикой, тюркские республики

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