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TÜRK CUMHURİYETLERİNDE TURİZM-İKTİSADİ BÜYÜME İLİŞKİSİ: PANEL NEDENSELLİK ANALİZİ

Yıl 2018, Sayı: 80, 35 - 44, 30.12.2018

Öz

Bu çalışmanın amacı geçiş sürecindeki Türk Cumhuriyetlerinde turizm ve iktisadi büyüme arasındaki ilişkiyi 1995-2014 dönemine ait yıllık verileri kullanarak incelemektir. Bu bağlamda üç aşamalı Panel Granger nedensellik testi uygulanmıştır. İlk olarak serilerin durağanlığı Panel birim kök testi yardımıyla araştırılmıştır. Daha sonra bütünleme mertebeleri aynı olan seriler için eşbütünleme testi uygulanmıştır. Son olarak Panel Granger nedensellik testi aracılığıyla değişkenler arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisi ortaya konulmaya çalışılmıştır. Elde edilen bulgulara göre büyümeden turizme doğru kısa dönem nedensellik ilişkinin mevcut olduğu kanısına varılabilir.

Kaynakça

  • Akinboade, O. Akinloye ve Braimoh A. Lydia (2010). “International Tourism and Economic Development in South Africa: A Granger Causality Test”. International Journal of Tourism Research 12: 149–163.
  • Antonakakis, Nikolaos, Mina Dragouni ve George Filis (2013). “Time-Varying Interdependencies of Tourism and Economic Growth: Evidence from European Countries”. MPRA Munich Personal Repec Archive, 4875: 1-34.
  • Antonakakis, Nikolaos, Mina Dragouni ve George Filis (2015). “How Strong is the Linkage between Tourism and Economic Growth in Europe?” Economic Modelling 44: 142–155.
  • Amaghionyeodiwe, A. Lloyd (2012). “Research note: A Causality Analysis of Tourism as a Long-Run Economic Growth Factor in Jamaica.” Tourism Economics 18 (5): 1125-1133.
  • Aslan, Alper (2008). “Türkiye‟de Ekonomik Büyüme ve Turizm Ilişkisi Üzerine Ekonometrik Analiz”. MPRA Paper 10611: 1-11.
  • Arslanturk, Yalcin, Mehmet Balcilar ve Zeynel Abidin Ozdemir (2011). “Time-Varying Linkages between Tourism Receipts and Economic Growth in a Small Open Economy”. Economic Modelling 28 (1-2): 664-671.
  • Balaguer, Jacint ve Cantavella-Jorda Manuel (2002). “Tourism as a Long-run Economic Growth Factor: the Spanish Case”. Applied Economics 34 (7): 877-884.
  • Bai, Jushan ve Ng Serena (2004). “A Panic Attack on Unit Roots and Cointegration”. Econometrica 72(4): 1127-117.
  • Brida, J. Gabriel Lionello Punzo ve Wiston Adrián Risso (2011). “Research Note: Tourism as a Factor of Growth: the case of Brazil”. Tourism Economics 17 (6): 1375-1386.
  • Breitung, Jorg (2000). The Local Power of Some Unit Root Tests for Panel Data, In: Nonstationary Panels, Panels Cointegration and Dynamic Panels, Baltagi B.H. (ed). Elsevier Amsterdam, 161-177.
  • Clancy, Michael (1999). “Tourism and Development: Evidence from Mexico”. Annals of Tourism Research 26(1): 1–20.
  • Chen, Cing-Fu ve Chiou-Wei, S. Zan (2009). “Tourism Expansion, Tourism Uncertainty and Economic Growth: New Evidence from Taiwan and Korea”. Tourism Management 30(6): 812-818.
  • Chou, Ming Che (2013). “Does Tourism Development Promote Economic Growth in Transition Countries? A Panel Data Analysis.” Economic Modelling 33: 226-232.
  • Cortés-Jiménez Isabel, Jean-Jacques Nowak ve Mondher Sahli (2011). “Mass Beach Tourism and Economic Growth: Lessons from Tunisia.” Tourism Economics 17(3): 531–547.
  • Copeland, R. Brian (1991). “Tourism, Welfare and De-industrialization in a Small Open Economy”. Economica, 58: 515-529.
  • Çağlayan Ebru, Güriş Burak, ve Oskonbaeva Zamira (2012). “Turizme Dayalı Büyüme Hipotezinin Kuzey Kıbrıs Türk Cumhuriyeti için Geçerliliğinin Analizi”. Trakya Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi 14: 105-122.
  • Diamond, Jared (1977). “Tourism‟s Role in Economic Development; The Case Reexamined”. Economic Development and Cultural Change 25 (3): 539-553.
  • Dristakis, Nikolaos (2004). “Tourism as a Long-run Economic Growth Factor: An Empirical Investigation for Greece Using Causality Analysis”. Tourism Economics 10 (3): 305-3016.
  • Durbarry, Ramesh (2004). “Tourism and Economic Growth: the Case of Mauritius”. Tourism Economics 10(4): 389-401.
  • Dünya Bankası www.worldbank.org [Erişim:20.10.2017].
  • Eeckels Bruno, George Filis ve Costas Leon (2012). Tourism Income and Economic Growth in Greece: Empirical Evidence from Their Cyclical Components”. Tourism Economics 18 (4): 817-834.
  • Georgantopoulos, G. Andreas (2012). “Forecasting Tourism Expenditure and Growth: A VAR/VECM Analysis for Greece at both Aggregated and Disaggregated Levels”. International Research Journal of Finance and Economics 96: 155-167.
  • Gunduz, Lokman ve Hatemi-J. Abdulnasser (2005). “Is the Tourism-Led Growth Hypothesis Valid for Turkey?” Applied Economics Letters 12 (8): 499-504.
  • Hadri, Kaddour (2000). “Testing for Stationarity in Heterogeneous Panel Data”. Econometrics Journal 3: 148-161.
  • Harris, D. Richard ve Tzavalis Elias (1999). “Inference for Unit Roots in Dynamic Panels Where the Time Dimension is Fixed”. Journal of econometrics 91 (2): 201-226.
  • Husein, Jamal ve Kara M. Sahit (2011). “Research Note: Re-examining the tourism-led growth hypothesis for Turkey”. Tourism Economics 17 (4): 917-924.
  • Hüseyni İbrahim, Ömer Doru ve Ahmet Tunç (2017). The Effects Of Tourism Revenues on Economic Growth in the Context of Neo-Classical Growth Model: In the Case of Turkey, Ecoforum 6 (1): 1-6.
  • Hye, M.A. Qazi ve Khan E.A. Rana (2013). “Tourism-Led Growth Hypothesis: A Case Study of Pakistan”. Asia Pacific Journal of Tourism Research 18 (4): 303-313.
  • Im, S. Kyung, M. Hashem Pesaran ve Yongcheol Shin (2003). “Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panel”. Journal of Econometrics 115: 53-74.
  • Jackman, Mahalia ve Lorde Troy (2012). “Examination of Economic Growth and Tourism in Barbados: Testing the Supply Side Hypothesis”. Tourismos: An International Multidisciplinary Journal of Tourism 7 (2): 203-215.
  • Jayathilake P.M.Bandula (2013). “Tourism and Economic Growth in Sri Lanka: Evidence from Cointegration and Causality Analysis”. International Journal of Business, Economics and Law, 2 (2): 22-27.
  • Kanca, Osman Cenk (2015). “Turizm Gelirleri ve Ekonomik Büyüme: Türkiye Örneği (1980-2013)”. The Journal of Marmara Social Research 8:1-14.
  • Kasimati, Evangelia (2011). “Economic Impact of Tourism on Greece‟s Economy: Cointegration and Causality Analysis”. International Research Journal of Finance and Economics 79: 79-85.
  • Katırcıoğlu, Salih (2009). “Tourism, Trade and Growth: The Case of Cyprus”. Applied Economics 41 (21): 2741-2750.
  • Kibara, N. Obadiah, Nicholas M. Odhiambo ve Josephine Njuguna (2012). “Tourism and Economic Growth in Kenya: An Empirical Investigation”. International Business and Economics Research Journal 1 (5): 517- 528.
  • Kim, J. Hyun, Ming-Hsiang Chen ve SooCheong Shawn”Jang (2006). “Tourism Expansion and Economic Development: The Case of Taiwan”. Tourism Management 27 (5): 925-933.
  • Kum, Hakan, Aslan Alper ve Gungor Merve (2015). “Tourism and Economic Growth: The Case of Next-11 Countries”. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues 5 (4): 1075-1081.
  • Kumar R. Ravinesh, Peter Josef Stauvermann, Arvind Patel, Nikeel Kumar, Selvin Prasad (2015).„„Exploring the Nexus Between Tourism and Output in Cook Islands: An ARDL Bounds Approach‟‟. Social Indicators Research 125 (1): 1-17.
  • Lee, C. Chiang ve Chang, C.Ping (2008). “Tourism Development and Economic Growth: A Closer Look at Panels. Tourism Management 29:180-192.
  • Lean, H. Hooi ve Tang C. Foon (2010). “Is the Tourism-Led Growth Hypothesis Stable for Malaysia? A Note”. International Journal of Tourism Research 12 (4): 375–378.
  • Levin Andrew, Chien-Fu Lin ve Chia-Shang James Chu (2002).Unit Root Test in Panel Data: Asymptotic and Finite Sample Properties”. Journal of Econometrics 108: 1-24.
  • Louca, Charalambos (2006). “Income And Expenditure in the Tourism Industry: Time Series Evidence from Cyprus”. Tourism Economics 12 (4): 603-617.
  • Martin, J. Luis, Noelia Martín Morales ve Riccardo Scarpa (2004). “Tourism and Economic Growth in Latin American Countries: A Panel Data Approach”. Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei Working Paper Series 1-20.
  • Moon, H. Roger ve Perron Pierre (2003). “Panel Evidence on Units Root in Exchange Rate Interest Rates with Cross-Sectional Dependence”. Manuscript, USC.
  • Nowak, J.Jacques, Mondher Sahli ve Isabel Cortés-Jiménez (2007). “Tourism, Capital Good Imports and Economic Growth: Theory and Evidence for Spain”. Tourism Economics 13 (4): 515-536.
  • Oh, C.Ok (2005). “The Contribution of Tourism Development and Economic Growth in The Korean Economy”. Tourism Management 26(1): 39–44.
  • Ongan, Serdar ve Demiroz M. Dündar (2005). “The Contribution of Tourism to the Long-Run Turkish Economic Growth”. Journal of Economics 53 (9): 880-894.
  • Payne, E. James ve Mervar Andrea (2010). “Research Note: The Tourism-Growth Nexus in Croatia”. Tourism Economics 16 (4):1089-1094.
  • Pesaran, M. Hashem (2007). “A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in the Presence of Cross-section Dependence”. Journal of Applied Econometrics 22: 265–312.
  • Pesaran, M. Hashem (2004). “General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels”.Working Paper, No:0435 University of Cambridge.
  • Samimi, A. Jafari, Somaye Sadeghi ve Soraya Sadeghi (2011). “Tourism and Economic Growth in Developing Countries: P-VAR Approach”. Middle-East Journal of Scientific Research 10 (1): 28-32.
  • Sancar M. Fatih, Said Kıngır ve Mesut Soyalın (2015). “Orta Asya Türk Devletleri ile Türkiye Arasındaki Turizm Potansiyeli ve Ekonomi Açısından İncelenmesi”. Internatıonal Conference on Eurasian Economies, 291-297.
  • Seetanah, Boopen (2011). “Assessing the Dynamic Economic Impact of Tourism for Island Economies”. Annals of Tourism Research 38 (1): 291-308.
  • Seghir G. Mohammed, Belmokaddem Mostéfa, Sahraoui Mohammed Abbes ve Ghouali Yassine Zakarya (2015). “Tourism Spending-Economic Growth Causality in 49 Countries: A Dynamic Panel Data Approach”. Procedia Economics and Finance 23: 1613 – 1623.
  • Seferov, Rehman ve Hesenov Tapdıg (2006). “Azerbaycan'ın Turizm Potansiyeli ve Turizm Etkinliklerinin Değerlendirilmesi”. Türkiyat Araştırmaları Dergisi 20: 255-272.
  • Shan, Jordan ve Wilson Ken (2001). “Causality between Trade and Tourism: Empirical Evidence from China”. Applied Economics Letters 8 (4): 279-283.
  • Suresh, Jeyapraba ve Senthilnathan Samithamby (2014). “Relationship between Tourism and Economic Growth in Sri Lanka”. Published as the 7th Chapter of a Book Entitled Economic Issues in Sri Lanka.
  • Tang, C. Foon ve Abosedra Salah (2014). “Small Sample Evidence on the Tourism-Led Growth Hypothesis in Lebanon”. Current Issues in Tourism 17 (3): 234-246.
  • Tang, C. Foon ve Tan E. Chye (2015). “Does Tourism Effectively Stimulate Malaysia‟s Economic Growth?” Tourism Management 46: 158-163.
  • Tugcu, C. Tansel (2014). “Tourism and Economic Growth Nexus Revisited: A Panel Causality Analysis for the Case of the Mediterranean Region”. Tourism Management 42: 207–212.
  • Turdumambetov Bakıt ve Kalbekov Elbek (2017). Tourists Motivations as the Factor of Increase of Tourist Flow. Reforma, 4, 24.
  • Westerlund, Joakim (2007). “Testing for Error Correction in Panel Data”. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 69 (6): 709-748.
  • Zortuk, Mohmut (2009). “Economic Impact of Tourism on Turkey‟s Economy: Evidence from Cointegration Tests”. International Research Journal of Finance and Economics 25 (3): 231-239.

TOURISM AND ECONOMIC GROWTH RELATIONSHIP IN THE TURKIC COUNTRIES: PANEL CAUSALITY ANALYSIS

Yıl 2018, Sayı: 80, 35 - 44, 30.12.2018

Öz

The aim of this study is to examine the relationship between tourism and economic growth in the Turkish Republics using annual data for the period 1995-2014. In this context, a three-step Panel Granger causality test was applied. First, the stability of the series was investigated by means of the panel unit root test. Then panel co-integration test was applied to the series integrated of the same order. Finally, the causality relationship between the variables was examined through the Panel Granger causality test. According to the findings obtained, it can be concluded that there is a short term causality relationship running from economic growth to tourism.

Kaynakça

  • Akinboade, O. Akinloye ve Braimoh A. Lydia (2010). “International Tourism and Economic Development in South Africa: A Granger Causality Test”. International Journal of Tourism Research 12: 149–163.
  • Antonakakis, Nikolaos, Mina Dragouni ve George Filis (2013). “Time-Varying Interdependencies of Tourism and Economic Growth: Evidence from European Countries”. MPRA Munich Personal Repec Archive, 4875: 1-34.
  • Antonakakis, Nikolaos, Mina Dragouni ve George Filis (2015). “How Strong is the Linkage between Tourism and Economic Growth in Europe?” Economic Modelling 44: 142–155.
  • Amaghionyeodiwe, A. Lloyd (2012). “Research note: A Causality Analysis of Tourism as a Long-Run Economic Growth Factor in Jamaica.” Tourism Economics 18 (5): 1125-1133.
  • Aslan, Alper (2008). “Türkiye‟de Ekonomik Büyüme ve Turizm Ilişkisi Üzerine Ekonometrik Analiz”. MPRA Paper 10611: 1-11.
  • Arslanturk, Yalcin, Mehmet Balcilar ve Zeynel Abidin Ozdemir (2011). “Time-Varying Linkages between Tourism Receipts and Economic Growth in a Small Open Economy”. Economic Modelling 28 (1-2): 664-671.
  • Balaguer, Jacint ve Cantavella-Jorda Manuel (2002). “Tourism as a Long-run Economic Growth Factor: the Spanish Case”. Applied Economics 34 (7): 877-884.
  • Bai, Jushan ve Ng Serena (2004). “A Panic Attack on Unit Roots and Cointegration”. Econometrica 72(4): 1127-117.
  • Brida, J. Gabriel Lionello Punzo ve Wiston Adrián Risso (2011). “Research Note: Tourism as a Factor of Growth: the case of Brazil”. Tourism Economics 17 (6): 1375-1386.
  • Breitung, Jorg (2000). The Local Power of Some Unit Root Tests for Panel Data, In: Nonstationary Panels, Panels Cointegration and Dynamic Panels, Baltagi B.H. (ed). Elsevier Amsterdam, 161-177.
  • Clancy, Michael (1999). “Tourism and Development: Evidence from Mexico”. Annals of Tourism Research 26(1): 1–20.
  • Chen, Cing-Fu ve Chiou-Wei, S. Zan (2009). “Tourism Expansion, Tourism Uncertainty and Economic Growth: New Evidence from Taiwan and Korea”. Tourism Management 30(6): 812-818.
  • Chou, Ming Che (2013). “Does Tourism Development Promote Economic Growth in Transition Countries? A Panel Data Analysis.” Economic Modelling 33: 226-232.
  • Cortés-Jiménez Isabel, Jean-Jacques Nowak ve Mondher Sahli (2011). “Mass Beach Tourism and Economic Growth: Lessons from Tunisia.” Tourism Economics 17(3): 531–547.
  • Copeland, R. Brian (1991). “Tourism, Welfare and De-industrialization in a Small Open Economy”. Economica, 58: 515-529.
  • Çağlayan Ebru, Güriş Burak, ve Oskonbaeva Zamira (2012). “Turizme Dayalı Büyüme Hipotezinin Kuzey Kıbrıs Türk Cumhuriyeti için Geçerliliğinin Analizi”. Trakya Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi 14: 105-122.
  • Diamond, Jared (1977). “Tourism‟s Role in Economic Development; The Case Reexamined”. Economic Development and Cultural Change 25 (3): 539-553.
  • Dristakis, Nikolaos (2004). “Tourism as a Long-run Economic Growth Factor: An Empirical Investigation for Greece Using Causality Analysis”. Tourism Economics 10 (3): 305-3016.
  • Durbarry, Ramesh (2004). “Tourism and Economic Growth: the Case of Mauritius”. Tourism Economics 10(4): 389-401.
  • Dünya Bankası www.worldbank.org [Erişim:20.10.2017].
  • Eeckels Bruno, George Filis ve Costas Leon (2012). Tourism Income and Economic Growth in Greece: Empirical Evidence from Their Cyclical Components”. Tourism Economics 18 (4): 817-834.
  • Georgantopoulos, G. Andreas (2012). “Forecasting Tourism Expenditure and Growth: A VAR/VECM Analysis for Greece at both Aggregated and Disaggregated Levels”. International Research Journal of Finance and Economics 96: 155-167.
  • Gunduz, Lokman ve Hatemi-J. Abdulnasser (2005). “Is the Tourism-Led Growth Hypothesis Valid for Turkey?” Applied Economics Letters 12 (8): 499-504.
  • Hadri, Kaddour (2000). “Testing for Stationarity in Heterogeneous Panel Data”. Econometrics Journal 3: 148-161.
  • Harris, D. Richard ve Tzavalis Elias (1999). “Inference for Unit Roots in Dynamic Panels Where the Time Dimension is Fixed”. Journal of econometrics 91 (2): 201-226.
  • Husein, Jamal ve Kara M. Sahit (2011). “Research Note: Re-examining the tourism-led growth hypothesis for Turkey”. Tourism Economics 17 (4): 917-924.
  • Hüseyni İbrahim, Ömer Doru ve Ahmet Tunç (2017). The Effects Of Tourism Revenues on Economic Growth in the Context of Neo-Classical Growth Model: In the Case of Turkey, Ecoforum 6 (1): 1-6.
  • Hye, M.A. Qazi ve Khan E.A. Rana (2013). “Tourism-Led Growth Hypothesis: A Case Study of Pakistan”. Asia Pacific Journal of Tourism Research 18 (4): 303-313.
  • Im, S. Kyung, M. Hashem Pesaran ve Yongcheol Shin (2003). “Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panel”. Journal of Econometrics 115: 53-74.
  • Jackman, Mahalia ve Lorde Troy (2012). “Examination of Economic Growth and Tourism in Barbados: Testing the Supply Side Hypothesis”. Tourismos: An International Multidisciplinary Journal of Tourism 7 (2): 203-215.
  • Jayathilake P.M.Bandula (2013). “Tourism and Economic Growth in Sri Lanka: Evidence from Cointegration and Causality Analysis”. International Journal of Business, Economics and Law, 2 (2): 22-27.
  • Kanca, Osman Cenk (2015). “Turizm Gelirleri ve Ekonomik Büyüme: Türkiye Örneği (1980-2013)”. The Journal of Marmara Social Research 8:1-14.
  • Kasimati, Evangelia (2011). “Economic Impact of Tourism on Greece‟s Economy: Cointegration and Causality Analysis”. International Research Journal of Finance and Economics 79: 79-85.
  • Katırcıoğlu, Salih (2009). “Tourism, Trade and Growth: The Case of Cyprus”. Applied Economics 41 (21): 2741-2750.
  • Kibara, N. Obadiah, Nicholas M. Odhiambo ve Josephine Njuguna (2012). “Tourism and Economic Growth in Kenya: An Empirical Investigation”. International Business and Economics Research Journal 1 (5): 517- 528.
  • Kim, J. Hyun, Ming-Hsiang Chen ve SooCheong Shawn”Jang (2006). “Tourism Expansion and Economic Development: The Case of Taiwan”. Tourism Management 27 (5): 925-933.
  • Kum, Hakan, Aslan Alper ve Gungor Merve (2015). “Tourism and Economic Growth: The Case of Next-11 Countries”. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues 5 (4): 1075-1081.
  • Kumar R. Ravinesh, Peter Josef Stauvermann, Arvind Patel, Nikeel Kumar, Selvin Prasad (2015).„„Exploring the Nexus Between Tourism and Output in Cook Islands: An ARDL Bounds Approach‟‟. Social Indicators Research 125 (1): 1-17.
  • Lee, C. Chiang ve Chang, C.Ping (2008). “Tourism Development and Economic Growth: A Closer Look at Panels. Tourism Management 29:180-192.
  • Lean, H. Hooi ve Tang C. Foon (2010). “Is the Tourism-Led Growth Hypothesis Stable for Malaysia? A Note”. International Journal of Tourism Research 12 (4): 375–378.
  • Levin Andrew, Chien-Fu Lin ve Chia-Shang James Chu (2002).Unit Root Test in Panel Data: Asymptotic and Finite Sample Properties”. Journal of Econometrics 108: 1-24.
  • Louca, Charalambos (2006). “Income And Expenditure in the Tourism Industry: Time Series Evidence from Cyprus”. Tourism Economics 12 (4): 603-617.
  • Martin, J. Luis, Noelia Martín Morales ve Riccardo Scarpa (2004). “Tourism and Economic Growth in Latin American Countries: A Panel Data Approach”. Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei Working Paper Series 1-20.
  • Moon, H. Roger ve Perron Pierre (2003). “Panel Evidence on Units Root in Exchange Rate Interest Rates with Cross-Sectional Dependence”. Manuscript, USC.
  • Nowak, J.Jacques, Mondher Sahli ve Isabel Cortés-Jiménez (2007). “Tourism, Capital Good Imports and Economic Growth: Theory and Evidence for Spain”. Tourism Economics 13 (4): 515-536.
  • Oh, C.Ok (2005). “The Contribution of Tourism Development and Economic Growth in The Korean Economy”. Tourism Management 26(1): 39–44.
  • Ongan, Serdar ve Demiroz M. Dündar (2005). “The Contribution of Tourism to the Long-Run Turkish Economic Growth”. Journal of Economics 53 (9): 880-894.
  • Payne, E. James ve Mervar Andrea (2010). “Research Note: The Tourism-Growth Nexus in Croatia”. Tourism Economics 16 (4):1089-1094.
  • Pesaran, M. Hashem (2007). “A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in the Presence of Cross-section Dependence”. Journal of Applied Econometrics 22: 265–312.
  • Pesaran, M. Hashem (2004). “General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels”.Working Paper, No:0435 University of Cambridge.
  • Samimi, A. Jafari, Somaye Sadeghi ve Soraya Sadeghi (2011). “Tourism and Economic Growth in Developing Countries: P-VAR Approach”. Middle-East Journal of Scientific Research 10 (1): 28-32.
  • Sancar M. Fatih, Said Kıngır ve Mesut Soyalın (2015). “Orta Asya Türk Devletleri ile Türkiye Arasındaki Turizm Potansiyeli ve Ekonomi Açısından İncelenmesi”. Internatıonal Conference on Eurasian Economies, 291-297.
  • Seetanah, Boopen (2011). “Assessing the Dynamic Economic Impact of Tourism for Island Economies”. Annals of Tourism Research 38 (1): 291-308.
  • Seghir G. Mohammed, Belmokaddem Mostéfa, Sahraoui Mohammed Abbes ve Ghouali Yassine Zakarya (2015). “Tourism Spending-Economic Growth Causality in 49 Countries: A Dynamic Panel Data Approach”. Procedia Economics and Finance 23: 1613 – 1623.
  • Seferov, Rehman ve Hesenov Tapdıg (2006). “Azerbaycan'ın Turizm Potansiyeli ve Turizm Etkinliklerinin Değerlendirilmesi”. Türkiyat Araştırmaları Dergisi 20: 255-272.
  • Shan, Jordan ve Wilson Ken (2001). “Causality between Trade and Tourism: Empirical Evidence from China”. Applied Economics Letters 8 (4): 279-283.
  • Suresh, Jeyapraba ve Senthilnathan Samithamby (2014). “Relationship between Tourism and Economic Growth in Sri Lanka”. Published as the 7th Chapter of a Book Entitled Economic Issues in Sri Lanka.
  • Tang, C. Foon ve Abosedra Salah (2014). “Small Sample Evidence on the Tourism-Led Growth Hypothesis in Lebanon”. Current Issues in Tourism 17 (3): 234-246.
  • Tang, C. Foon ve Tan E. Chye (2015). “Does Tourism Effectively Stimulate Malaysia‟s Economic Growth?” Tourism Management 46: 158-163.
  • Tugcu, C. Tansel (2014). “Tourism and Economic Growth Nexus Revisited: A Panel Causality Analysis for the Case of the Mediterranean Region”. Tourism Management 42: 207–212.
  • Turdumambetov Bakıt ve Kalbekov Elbek (2017). Tourists Motivations as the Factor of Increase of Tourist Flow. Reforma, 4, 24.
  • Westerlund, Joakim (2007). “Testing for Error Correction in Panel Data”. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 69 (6): 709-748.
  • Zortuk, Mohmut (2009). “Economic Impact of Tourism on Turkey‟s Economy: Evidence from Cointegration Tests”. International Research Journal of Finance and Economics 25 (3): 231-239.

ВЗАИМОСВЯЗЬ МЕЖДУ ТУРИЗМОМ И ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКИМ РОСТОМ В ТЮРСКИХ РЕСПУБЛИКАХ: АНАЛИЗ ПРИЧИННО-СЛЕДСТВЕННЫХ СВЯЗЕЙ

Yıl 2018, Sayı: 80, 35 - 44, 30.12.2018

Öz

Целью этого исследования является изучение взаимосвязи между туризмом и экономическим ростом в тюркских республиках в переходный период с использованием годовых данных за период 1995-2014 гг. В этих рамках к анализу панельных данных был применен трехступенчатый тест причинности Грейнджера. Сначала стационарность данных была исследована с помощью теста на единичный корень. Затем был применен коинтеграционный тест. В заключение с помощью теста Грейнджера была выявлена связь между экономическим ростом и туризмом. Согласно полученным результатам анализа существует краткосрочная однонаправленная причинно-следственная связь между переменными, идущая от экономического роста к туризму.

Kaynakça

  • Akinboade, O. Akinloye ve Braimoh A. Lydia (2010). “International Tourism and Economic Development in South Africa: A Granger Causality Test”. International Journal of Tourism Research 12: 149–163.
  • Antonakakis, Nikolaos, Mina Dragouni ve George Filis (2013). “Time-Varying Interdependencies of Tourism and Economic Growth: Evidence from European Countries”. MPRA Munich Personal Repec Archive, 4875: 1-34.
  • Antonakakis, Nikolaos, Mina Dragouni ve George Filis (2015). “How Strong is the Linkage between Tourism and Economic Growth in Europe?” Economic Modelling 44: 142–155.
  • Amaghionyeodiwe, A. Lloyd (2012). “Research note: A Causality Analysis of Tourism as a Long-Run Economic Growth Factor in Jamaica.” Tourism Economics 18 (5): 1125-1133.
  • Aslan, Alper (2008). “Türkiye‟de Ekonomik Büyüme ve Turizm Ilişkisi Üzerine Ekonometrik Analiz”. MPRA Paper 10611: 1-11.
  • Arslanturk, Yalcin, Mehmet Balcilar ve Zeynel Abidin Ozdemir (2011). “Time-Varying Linkages between Tourism Receipts and Economic Growth in a Small Open Economy”. Economic Modelling 28 (1-2): 664-671.
  • Balaguer, Jacint ve Cantavella-Jorda Manuel (2002). “Tourism as a Long-run Economic Growth Factor: the Spanish Case”. Applied Economics 34 (7): 877-884.
  • Bai, Jushan ve Ng Serena (2004). “A Panic Attack on Unit Roots and Cointegration”. Econometrica 72(4): 1127-117.
  • Brida, J. Gabriel Lionello Punzo ve Wiston Adrián Risso (2011). “Research Note: Tourism as a Factor of Growth: the case of Brazil”. Tourism Economics 17 (6): 1375-1386.
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Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Bölüm Araştırma Makalesi
Yazarlar

Zamira OSKONBAEVA

Yayımlanma Tarihi 30 Aralık 2018
Gönderilme Tarihi 1 Eylül 2018
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2018 Sayı: 80

Kaynak Göster

APA OSKONBAEVA, Z. (2018). TÜRK CUMHURİYETLERİNDE TURİZM-İKTİSADİ BÜYÜME İLİŞKİSİ: PANEL NEDENSELLİK ANALİZİ. Reforma, 4(80), 35-44.