İstatistiksel metotlar ve yapay sinir ağları kullanarak kısa dönem çok adımlı rüzgâr hızı tahmini

Yıl 2018, Cilt: 22 Sayı: 1, 24 - 38, 01.02.2018

İsmail Kırbaş

https://doi.org/10.16984/saufenbilder.305224

Cited By: 5

Öz

Bu çalışmada TÜBİTAK T60 ulusal gözlem evi
meteoroloji istasyonunun 2016 yılı nisan ayı içerisinde yaptığı gözlem
sonuçları PHP programlama dili kullanılarak web sitesi üzerinden derlenmiştir.
Elde edilen rüzgâr hızı verileri istatistiksel ve yapay sinir ağı metotları
kullanılarak incelenmiş ve meydana getirilen zaman serisi üzerinden ileriye
yönelik rüzgâr hızı kestirimlerinde bulunulmuştur. Yapılan hesaplamalar ve
gerçek veriler ile kıyaslamalar sonucunda incelenen ARIMA modelleri ve yapay
sinir ağları arasında belirgin bir hata oranı farkı görülmüştür. Literatürde
yer alan rüzgâr hızı tahmin çalışmaları genellikle sadece tek adım tahmin
başarısı üzerinde yoğunlaşırken, önerilen çalışmada sık kullanılan tahmin
metotlarının ileriye dönük 12 adım seviyesinde ayrıntılı değerlendirilmeleri
gerçekleştirilmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Rüzgâr hız tahmini, ARIMA, NAR, yapay sinir ağı, zaman serileri, kısa dönemli tahmin metotları

Short-term multi-step wind speed prediction using statistical methods and artificial neural networks

Öz

The results of the observations made by TUBITAK
T60 national observation house meteorological station in April, 2016 were
compiled on this website using the PHP programming language. Obtained wind
speed data were analysed using statistical and artificial neural network
methods and predicted wind speed predictions over the time series brought to
the field. There is a significant difference in error rates between the ARIMA
models and the artificial neural networks examined as a result of comparisons
with the calculated calculations and actual data. While the wind speed
estimation studies in the literature generally focus only on single step
prediction success, detailed evaluation of commonly used estimation methods at
the prospective 12 step level has been carried out.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Wind speed prediction, ARIMA, NAR, artificial neural network, time series, short term prediction methods

Kaynakça

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