A COMPARISON OF MULTINOMIAL LOGISTIC AND MULTINOMIAL CONDITIONAL LOGISTIC REGRESSION MODELS IN ASSESSING EUROPEAN UNION MEMBERSHIP

Abstract

Multinomial logistic (ML) and multinomial conditional logistic (MCL) regression models are used for modeling the relationships between a polytomous response variable and a set of explanatory variables. In this study, key factors affecting the European Union (EU) membership process are determined using ML and MCL models. We compare the ML and MCL models and argue that MCL is more preferable than the more complex ML model. Then for each candidate or potential candidate country, the probability of the accession time for the EU membership is predicted. The findings indicate that human development index, gdp per capita, exports of goods and services are important factors in determining which of the countries will join the EU
and when they will do so. Furthermore, the probabilities of the accession time for both candidate and potential candidate countries are predicted as more than six years. 

Keywords

• Multinomial Logistic,Multinomial Conditional Logistic,ROC curve,European Union,Enlargement

ÇOKLU LOJİSTİK VE ÇOKLU KOŞULLU LOJİSTİK REGRESYON MODELLERİ: AVRUPA BİRLİĞİ ÜYELİĞİ İÇİN MODELLERİN KARŞILAŞTIRILMASI

Abstract

Çoklu lojistik (ÇL) ve çoklu koşullu lojistik (ÇKL) regresyon çözümlemesi modelleri, çok düzeyli cevap değişkeni ile açıklayıcı değişkenler kümesi arasındaki ilişkileri modellemek için kullanılmaktadır. Bu çalışmada, Avrupa Birliği (AB) üyelik sürecini etkileyen temel faktörler ÇL ve ÇKL modelleri kullanılarak belirlenmiştir. ÇL ve ÇKL modelleri karşılaştırılmış ve ÇKL modelinin daha karmaşık olan ÇL modeline tercih edileceği sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Daha sonra, her aday ve olası aday ülke için AB’ye üyelik zamanı olasılığı tahmin edilmiştir. Bulgular, insani gelişim indeksi, kişi başına düşen gayri safi milli hasıla, mal ve hizmet ihracatının hangi ülkelerin hangi tarihte AB’ye katılacağını belirlemede önemli faktörler olduğunu göstermiştir. Ayrıca,
hem aday hem de olası aday ülkeler için giriş süresinin altı yıldan daha uzun olacağı tahmin edilmiştir.

Keywords

• Çoklu Lojistik,Çoklu Koşullu Lojistik,ROC eğrisi,Avrupa Birliği,Genişleme

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