Turkey’s Interest in Closer Relations with Russia: Global, Regional and Domestic Dynamics

Abstract

Recently, debates on a shift of axis in Turkish foreign policy have resurfaced. Many analysts perceive the geopolitical alignment between Turkey and Russia as a deliberate Turkish response to its deteriorating ties with the West. The goal of this paper is to shed light on the factors that have fostered the interest of the Turkish political elite in developing strategic relations with Russia. We argue that Turkey’s alignment with Russia has global, regional and domestic dimensions. First, especially after the global financial crisis of 2008, Russia managed to successfully realign itself with rising powers like China and India, while also strengthening its traditional position as a global player. Second, in addition to its strong influence in the Black Sea, the Caucasus and Central Asia, Russia has become a major actor in other regions in the immediate neighborhood of Turkey such as the Middle East and the East Mediterranean. Finally, the failed coup attempt of July 2016 in Turkey has added a strong psychological dimension to the Turkish-Russian rapprochement. Nevertheless, Turkey’s interest in closer ties with Russia is not expected to lead to a reorientation in Turkish foreign policy away from its position in the traditional transatlantic alliance .

Keywords

• Turkey
• Russia
• foreign policy
• alignment
• Syria

Supporting Institution

The author received no grant support for this work.

References

1. Aktürk, Ş. (2019). Relations between Russia and Turkey Before, During, and After the Failed Coup of 2016. Insight Turkey, 21(4), 97-114.
2. Aljazeera. (2020, September 8). Russia to Mediate in Eastern Mediterranean Crisis: Lavrov. Retrieved from https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/09/08/russia-ready-to-mediate-in-eastern-mediterranean-crisis-lavrov/.
3. Anadolu Agency. (2018, September 9). Turkey, Russia Agree on ‘Weapons-Free Zone’ in Idlib. Retrieved from https://www.aa.com.tr/en/energy/energy-security/turkey-russia-agree-on-weapons-free-zone-in-idlib/21653.
4. Anadolu Agency. (2019, July 26). Russia, Turkey Cooperation Possible in East Med.: Novak. Retrieved from https://www.aa.com.tr/en/energy/energy-diplomacy/russia-turkey-cooperation-possible-in-east-med-novak/26176.
5. Aris, B. (2019, May 9). Russia’s Nuclear Power Exports Are Booming. The Moscow Times. Retrieved from https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2019/05/09/russias-nuclear-power-exports-are-booming-a65533
6. Arms Control Association. (2019). Nuclear Weapons: Who Has What at a Glance. Retrieved from https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/Nuclearweaponswhohaswhat
7. Averre, D. & Davies L. (2015). Russia, Humanitarian Intervention and the Responsibility to Protect: The Case of Syria. International Affairs, 91(4), 813-834.
8. Balcı, A. (2019). A Three-level Analysis of Turkey’s Crisis with the U.S.-led Order. Insight Turkey, 21(4), 13-24.

9. Balta, E. (2019). From Geopolitical Competition to Strategic Partnership: Turkey and Russia after the Cold War. Uluslararası İlişkiler, 16(63), 69-86.
10. Belenkaya, M. (2020, August 31). In Libya’s War, Russia is Directionless – and Falling Behind. The Moscow Times. Retrieved from https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/08/31/in-libyas-war-russia-is-directionless-and-falling-behind-a71286.
11. Buhari Gülmez, Didem (2020). The Resilience of the US-Turkey Alliance: Divergent Threat Perceptions and Worldviews. Contemporary Politics, 26(4), 475-492.
12. Contessi, N. P. (2019). Turkey and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization: Common Values, Economics or Pure Geopolitics?. In Turkey's Pivot to Eurasia: Geopolitics and Foreign Policy in a Changing World Order (pp. 93-110). Routledge.
13. Çelikpala, M., & Erşen, E. (2018). Turkey’s Black Sea Predicament: Challenging or Accommodating Russia? Perceptions: Journal of International Affairs, 23(2), 72-92.
14. Daily Sabah. (2019, August 6). Turkey Launches ‘Asia Anew’ Initiative in Diplomacy. Retrieved from https://www.dailysabah.com/diplomacy/2019/08/06/turkey-launches-asia-anew-initiative-in-diplomacy.
15. Đidić, A., & Kösebalaban, H. (2019). Turkey’s Rapprochement with Russia: Assertive Bandwagoning. The International Spectator, 54(3), 123-138.
16. EPDK. (2019a). Petrol Piyasası 2018 Sektör Raporu. Retrieved from https://www.epdk.org.tr/Detay/Icerik/3-0-107/yillik-sektor-raporu
17. EPDK. (2019b). Doğalgaz Piyasası 2018 Sektör Raporu. Retrieved from https://www.epdk.org.tr/Detay/Icerik/5-5847/2018-yillik-sektor-raporlari-yayinlanmistir
18. Erşen, E. (2011). Turkey and Russia: An Emerging ‘Strategic Axis’ in Eurasia? EurOrient, 35-36, 263-285.
19. Erşen, E. (2013). The Evolution of ‘Eurasia’ as a Geopolitical Concept in Post-Cold War Turkey. Geopolitics 18 (1), 24-44.
20. Erşen, E. (2017). Evaluating the Fighter Jet Crisis in Turkish-Russian Relations. Insight Turkey, 19(4), 85-104.
21. Erşen, E., & Çelikpala, M. (2019). Turkey and the Changing Energy Geopolitics of Eurasia. Energy Policy, 128, 584-592.
22. Gultekin-Punsmann, B. (2009). The Caucasus Stability and Cooperation Platform: An Attempt to Foster Regional Accountability. Athens: International Centre for Black Sea Studies.
23. Hirst, S., & Isci, O. (2020). Smokestacks and Pipelines: Russian-Turkish Relations and the Persistence of Economic Development. Diplomatic History, https://doi.org/10.1093/dh/dhaa046.
24. Hürriyet Daily News. (2018, December 27). Turkey was Russian Tourists’ Top Destination in 2018. Retrieved from http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkey-was-russian-tourists-top-destination-in-2018-140044.
25. International Energy Agency. (2019). Gas 2019. Retrieved from https://www.iea.org/gas2019/.
26. Johnson, J., & Köstem, S. (2016). Frustrated Leadership: Russia’s Economic Alternative to the West. Global Policy, 7(2), 207-216.
27. Johnson, K., & Gramer, R. (2019, July 19). Who Lost Turkey? Foreign Policy. Retrieved from https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/07/19/who-lost-turkey-middle-east-s-400-missile-deal-russia-syria-iraq-kurdish-united-states-nato-alliance-partners-allies-adversaries/
28. Kadir Has Üniversitesi. (2018, June 6). Kadir Has Üniversitesi Dış Politika Kamuoyu Algıları Araştırması 2018 Sonuçları Açıklandı. Retrieved from http://www.khas.edu.tr/news/1885.
29. Köstem, S. (2019a). Russia’s Search for a Greater Eurasia: Origins, Promises, and Prospects. Kennan Cable, (40).
30. Köstem, S. (2019b). Geopolitics, Identity and Beyond: Turkey’s Renewed Interest in the Caucasus and Central Asia. In Turkey’s Pivot to Eurasia: Geopolitics and Foreign Policy in a Changing World Order (pp. 111-128). Routledge
31. Köstem, S. (2020). Russian-Turkish Cooperation in Syria: Geopolitical Alignment with Limits. Cambridge Review of International Affairs, 1-23.
32. Kremlin.ru. (2019, June 16). Vstupitel’noe slovo na zasedanii glav gosudarstv gruppy BRIK v uzkom sostave. Retrieved from http://news.kremlin.ru/transcripts/4474
33. Makarychev, A. & Morozov, V. (2011). Multilateralism, Multipolarity, and Beyond: Menu of Russia’s Policy Strategies. Global Governance, 17(3), 353-374.
34. Oğuzlu, T., & Parlar Dal, E. (2013). Decoding Turkey's Rise: An Introduction. Turkish Studies, 14(4), 617-636.
35. Öğütçü, M., & Bechev, D. (2018). Will Turkey and Russia Become ‘Strategic Allies’ or Sustain a ‘Marriage of Convenience’? Hürriyet Daily News. Retrieved from https://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/opinion/mehmet-ogutcu/will-turkey-and-russia-become-strategic-allies-or-sustain-a-marriage-of-convenience-127392.
36. Öniş, Z., & Kutlay, M. (2013). Rising Powers in a Changing Global Order: The Political Economy of Turkey in the Age of BRICS. Third World Quarterly, 34(8), 1409-1426.
37. Öniş, Z., & Yılmaz, Ş. (2016). Turkey and Russia in a Shifting Global Order: Cooperation, Conflict and Asymmetric Interdependence in a Turbulent Region. Third World Quarterly, 37(1), 71-95.
38. Özdal, H. (2020). Turkey-Russia Relations: Complex Cooperation. In Threats to Euro-Atlantic Security: Views from the Younger Generation Network (pp. 99-114). Palgrave Macmillan.
39. Parlar Dal, E., & Erşen, E. (2020). Russia and the Changing International System: An Introduction. In Russia in the Changing International System (pp. 1-16). Palgrave Macmillan.
40. Presidency of the Republic of Turkey. (2018, July 25). President Erdoğan Goes to South Africa to Attend BRICS Summit. Retrieved from https://www.tccb.gov.tr/en/news/542/95940/president-erdogan-goes-to-south-africa-to-attend-brics-summit-.
41. Republic of Turkey Ministry of Foreign Affairs (2020, August 31). Press Release Regarding the Treatment of Crimean Tatars. Retrieved from http://www.mfa.gov.tr/no_-191_-kirim-tatarlarina-yonelik-muamele-hk.en.mfa.
42. Rus Türk İş Adamları Birliği. (2019 February). Rusya İnşaat Sektöründeki Gelişmeler ve Türk Firmaları. Retrieved from https://www.rtib.org/cms-uploads/inşaat-rusya-1.pdf.
43. Rüma, İ. & Celikpala, M. (2019). Russian and Turkish Foreign Policy Activism in the Syrian Theater. Uluslararası İlişkiler Dergisi, 16(62), 65-84.
44. Souleimanov, E.A. (2019). Russia’s Policy in the Libyan Civil War: A Cautious Engagement. Middle East Policy, 26(2), 95-103.
45. Sputnik Türkiye. (2016, November 20). Erdoğan: ‘Şanghay Beşlisi İçerisinde Türkiye Niye Olmasın?’ Diyorum. Retrieved from https://tr.sputniknews.com/turkiye/201611201025892702-erdogan-ab-sanghay-beslisi/.
46. Starodubtsev, I. (2019, May 27). Will Russia Back Turkey in the Eastern Mediterranean? The New Turkey. Retrieved from https://thenewturkey.org/will-russia-back-turkey-in-the-eastern-mediterranean.
47. Stuenkel, O. (2020). The BRICS and the Future of Global Order. Lexington Books.
48. Suchkov, M.A. (2020, March 6). Why New Russia-Turkey Deal on Idlib Matters. Al-Monitor. Retrieved from https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2020/03/russia-turkey-deal-idlib-important-putin-erdogan.html.
49. T.C. Ticaret Bakanlığı (2019). Dış Ticaret ve Başlıca Ekonomik Göstergeler Bülteni – 2019 Yıllık. Retrieved from https://ticaret.gov.tr/istatistikler/dis-ticaret-istatistikleri.
50. TRT Haber. (2019, April 3). Cumhurbaşkanı Erdoğan İle Putin 3’üncü Kez Bir Araya Gelecek. Retrieved from https://www.trthaber.com/haber/gundem/cumhurbaskani-erdogan-ile-putin-3uncu-kez-bir-araya-gelecek-410698.html.
51. UN News. (2020, February 12). Libya: Security Council Demands Commitment to a ‘Lasting Ceasefire’. Retrieved from https://news.un.org/en/story/2020/02/1057311.
52. U.S. Energy Information Administration. (2019). Frequently Asked Questions. Retrieved from https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=709&t=6
53. Valdai Discussion Club. (2012, July). Military Reform: Toward the New Look of the Russian Army. Retrieved from http://vid-1.rian.ru/ig/valdai/Military_reform_eng.pdf.
54. White, D. & Herzog, M. (2016). Examining State Capacity in the Context of Electoral Authoritarianism, Regime Formation and Consolidation in Russia and Turkey. Southeast European and Black Sea Studies, 16(4), 551-569.