The “New Normal” in China’s Assertive Power Projection in the South China Sea: Maritime Hybrid Threats

Year 2021, Volume: 30 Issue: 2, 261 - 276, 30.10.2021

Övgü Kalkan Küçüksolak

https://doi.org/10.26650/siyasal.2021.30.984667

Abstract

The People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) assertive power projection in the South China Sea (SCS) and its consequences in the form of hybrid threats have increasingly become an accepted reality of the region. China has gradually constructed this “new normal” or “fait accompli” under the framework of its assertive policies which have generated geostrategic repercussions both in the regional and global landscape. Despite the fact that most of the recent studies particularly address China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) or regional politics, a holistic assessment of China’s assertive behavior requires a concentrated focus on China’s employment of maritime hybrid instruments in the service of its declarative, demonstrative and coercive actions. Rather than engaging in open military confrontation in the SCS dispute, China skillfully synchronizes the military, political, economic, cyber and information sources of power in different operational domains to influence, intimidate and coerce the competing claimants. Furthermore, with a structural approach, the impact of China’s employment of assertive maritime hybrid instruments go beyond regional level to have possible repercussions on the future of global-level power shifts. The current conditions of China’s growing material power, its will to use hybrid instruments, and increasing vulnerabilities and lack of a coordinated response seem to reinforce a breeding ground for future assertiveness and a possible shift in the balance of power. However, in the long-term it would not be surprising to see stiffened counter efforts to disrupt its initiatives on a global landscape. Therefore, this study aims to shed light on the context and cumulative effects of China’s assertive employment of maritime hybrid instruments while discussing increasing international concerns on the altering dynamics of balance of power.

Keywords

China’s Assertiveness, Maritime Hybrid Threats, Little Blue Men, Underwater Cable Strategy, Maritime Security

Çin’in Güney Çin Denizi’nde Uyguladığı Israrcı Güç Projeksiyonuyla Ortaya Çıkan “Yeni Normal”: Denizdeki Hibrid Tehditler

Abstract

Çin’in Güney Çin Denizi’nde (GÇD) uyguladığı ısrarcı güç projeksiyonu ve ortaya çıkardığı hibrid tehditler bölgenin “yeni normali” haline gelmekte ve gerek bölgesel, gerekse küresel anlamda önemli jeostratejik sonuçlar doğurmaktadır. Halihazırda literatürdeki pekçok çalışma Çin’in Bir Kuşak Bir Yol Projesi’ne odaklanmaktaysa da Çin’in ısrarcı politikalarının bütüncül bir şekilde değerlendirilebilmesi için sözkonusu devletin deniz alanında bildirimsel, ortaya koyucu ve zorlayıcı nitelikte kullandığı hibrid enstrümanların tartışılması gerekmektedir. GÇD’de açık bir askeri çatışmaya girmekten kaçınan Çin’in askeri, siyasi, ekonomik, siber ve bilgi kaynaklı güç enstrümanlarını kullanarak farklı operasyonel alanlar üzerinden rakiplerini etkilemeye, sindirmeye ve zorlamaya çalıştığı görülmektedir. Çin’in büyüyen gücü ve hibrid enstrümanları uygulama iradesine karşılık artan kırılganlıklar ile koordineli karşılık verilmesi eksikliği önümüzdeki dönemde söz konusu gücün daha fazla ısrarcı politikalar uygulamasına ve güç dengesinde bir kayma yaşanmasına zemin hazırlayabilecektir. Diğer taraftan, küresel düzlemde uzun dönemli düşünüldüğünde, Çin’in politika uygulamalarının önüne geçilebilmesi kapsamında sertleşen karşı politikaları görmek sürpriz olmayacaktır. Tüm bu unsurlar ışığında bu çalışma, Çin’in ısrarcı güç projeksiyonunu bütüncül bir şekilde analiz etmek amacıyla hibrid deniz enstrümanlarının içeriğine ve kümülatif etkilerine ışık tutmakta ve güç dengelerinin olası değişimi kapsamında yükselen uluslarası endişeleri tartışmaktadır.

Keywords

Çin’in Israrcı Politika Uygulamaları, Deniz Alanında Hibrid Tehditler, Küçük Mavi Adamlar, Sualtı Kablo Stratejisi, Deniz Güvenliği

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