Research Article

An Ensemble-Based Approach for Water Demand Prediction: Comparative Analysis of Conventional, Machine Learning, and Deep Learning Techniques

Volume: 17 Number: 2 December 30, 2025

An Ensemble-Based Approach for Water Demand Prediction: Comparative Analysis of Conventional, Machine Learning, and Deep Learning Techniques

Abstract

Water demand prediction is vital for effective infrastructure planning and sustainable water resource management. Accurate forecasting enables better decision-making in resource allocation and conservation efforts, ensuring equitable access to water. While traditional and machine learning approaches have shown promise in this domain, there is a growing need for methods that combine the strengths of these techniques to achieve higher predictive accuracy and adaptability. In this study, we propose a novel Ensemble Learning method that integrates Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving-Average with Exogenous Regressors (SARIMAX), Support Vector Regression (SVR), and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) using a stacking approach. This method is specifically designed to leverage the complementary strengths of statistical, machine learning, and deep learning models for improved water demand prediction. We compare the proposed method against 14 other predictive models, including classical approaches like Autoregressive (AR), ARIMA, and SARIMAX, as well as advanced machine learning and deep learning models such as Random Forest (RF), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), LightGBM, Categorical Boosting (CatBoost), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), and Bidirectional LSTM (BiLSTM). The models are evaluated on a real-world dataset of monthly water consumption from Istanbul municipality spanning 2011–2023. Performance is assessed using multiple metrics, including Mean Squared Error (MSE), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and the coefficient of determination (R²). Results demonstrate that our proposed Ensemble Learning method consistently outperforms the other models, showcasing its superior predictive accuracy and robustness for water demand forecasting.

Keywords

Project Number

This research received support from the "2209-A University Students Research Projects Support Program" administered by the TÜBİTAK Scientist Support Programs Directorate (BİDEB)

References

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Details

Primary Language

English

Subjects

Machine Learning (Other)

Journal Section

Research Article

Publication Date

December 30, 2025

Submission Date

June 20, 2025

Acceptance Date

August 26, 2025

Published in Issue

Year 2025 Volume: 17 Number: 2

APA
Pashaei, E., Sürücü, D., Sakal, E., & Korkmaz, A. N. (2025). An Ensemble-Based Approach for Water Demand Prediction: Comparative Analysis of Conventional, Machine Learning, and Deep Learning Techniques. Turkish Journal of Mathematics and Computer Science, 17(2), 338-365. https://doi.org/10.47000/tjmcs.1723524
AMA
1.Pashaei E, Sürücü D, Sakal E, Korkmaz AN. An Ensemble-Based Approach for Water Demand Prediction: Comparative Analysis of Conventional, Machine Learning, and Deep Learning Techniques. TJMCS. 2025;17(2):338-365. doi:10.47000/tjmcs.1723524
Chicago
Pashaei, Elham, Doğukan Sürücü, Elif Sakal, and Ayşe Nur Korkmaz. 2025. “An Ensemble-Based Approach for Water Demand Prediction: Comparative Analysis of Conventional, Machine Learning, and Deep Learning Techniques”. Turkish Journal of Mathematics and Computer Science 17 (2): 338-65. https://doi.org/10.47000/tjmcs.1723524.
EndNote
Pashaei E, Sürücü D, Sakal E, Korkmaz AN (December 1, 2025) An Ensemble-Based Approach for Water Demand Prediction: Comparative Analysis of Conventional, Machine Learning, and Deep Learning Techniques. Turkish Journal of Mathematics and Computer Science 17 2 338–365.
IEEE
[1]E. Pashaei, D. Sürücü, E. Sakal, and A. N. Korkmaz, “An Ensemble-Based Approach for Water Demand Prediction: Comparative Analysis of Conventional, Machine Learning, and Deep Learning Techniques”, TJMCS, vol. 17, no. 2, pp. 338–365, Dec. 2025, doi: 10.47000/tjmcs.1723524.
ISNAD
Pashaei, Elham - Sürücü, Doğukan - Sakal, Elif - Korkmaz, Ayşe Nur. “An Ensemble-Based Approach for Water Demand Prediction: Comparative Analysis of Conventional, Machine Learning, and Deep Learning Techniques”. Turkish Journal of Mathematics and Computer Science 17/2 (December 1, 2025): 338-365. https://doi.org/10.47000/tjmcs.1723524.
JAMA
1.Pashaei E, Sürücü D, Sakal E, Korkmaz AN. An Ensemble-Based Approach for Water Demand Prediction: Comparative Analysis of Conventional, Machine Learning, and Deep Learning Techniques. TJMCS. 2025;17:338–365.
MLA
Pashaei, Elham, et al. “An Ensemble-Based Approach for Water Demand Prediction: Comparative Analysis of Conventional, Machine Learning, and Deep Learning Techniques”. Turkish Journal of Mathematics and Computer Science, vol. 17, no. 2, Dec. 2025, pp. 338-65, doi:10.47000/tjmcs.1723524.
Vancouver
1.Elham Pashaei, Doğukan Sürücü, Elif Sakal, Ayşe Nur Korkmaz. An Ensemble-Based Approach for Water Demand Prediction: Comparative Analysis of Conventional, Machine Learning, and Deep Learning Techniques. TJMCS. 2025 Dec. 1;17(2):338-65. doi:10.47000/tjmcs.1723524