Fuzzy Modelling of Covid-19 in Turkey and Some Countries in The World

Abstract

Coronaviruses are a large family of viruses that are found in many different species of animals and are deadly illnesses for human. In late December 2019, China first announced the outbreak of a new coronavirus: Corona Virus Disease 2019 (or COVID-19), in which the symptoms are similar to common colds and flu. However it can sometimes be more serious, particularly for the elderly as well as patients with weak immune systems. The World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a global pandemic on March 11, 2020. As of date \changemarker{October 14}, 2020, confirmed coronavirus cases exceeded \changemarker{38} million including more than \changemarker{one million} deaths worldwide.

In this paper, we use dynamical modelling approach, namely Fuzzyfied Richards Growth Model, to understand the dynamic behaviour of the COVID-19 based on the real data and to predict possible future scenarios applying fuzzy approaches for some countries around the world including China, the United States, the top five countries with the highest population in Europe and Turkey.

Keywords

• Novel coronavirus (COVID-19)
• Population dynamics
• Fuzzy modelling
• Zadeh's extention principle

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