Predictors of life expectancy at birth in Türkiye: A longitudinal study
Abstract
Objective: The aim of this study is to examine the impact of social, behavioral, economic, and healthcare system-related factors on life expectancy at birth in Türkiye.
Methods: Enrollment rate in tertiary education, tobacco consumption gram per capita, out-of-pocket payments (OOPHE), and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita were included as predictors. The data were obtained from the database of the Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD), World Bank, and Health Statistics Yearbooks published by the Ministry of the Health in Türkiye for 2000-2019. Johansen Cointegration test was used to define the existence of the long-run statistical relationship between life expectancy at birth and the predictors.
Results: Enrollment rate in tertiary education, GDP per capita, and out-of-pocket payments are positively associated with life expectancy, while tobacco consumption gram per capita has a negative association. It has been concluded that short-term deviations from the equilibrium, using an error correction model, will reach long-term equilibrium approximately one year later. Granger causality test and the estimation result revealed that enrollment rate in tertiary education, tobacco consumption, out-of-pocket health expenditure, and GDP per capita are the short-term and long-term determinants of life expectancy at birth.
Conclusion: This study provides important evidence for policymakers to allocate resources to the social, behavioral, healthcare-related, and economic determinants of health status to increase life expectancy. In addition, the determination of out-of-pocket payments have a positive relationship with life expectancy gives a clue about the need to make more efforts regarding the economic accessibility of healthcare services in the Turkish health system.
Keywords
Life Expectancy, Health Economics, Health Management, Johansen Cointegration Analysis
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