Risk compensation (Peltzman’s effect) during the COVID-19 pandemic: A narrative review
Abstract
Objective: The implementation of a safety measure can have counterproductive effects on other protective measures and people engage in risk compensatory behavior (fewer safety behaviors). It is essential to summarize different researches to better understand the dynamics of risk compensation during COVID-19 pandemic in order to develop evidence-based interventions. Mass vaccination and public use of facemasks, among others, had been widely adopted to halt COVID-19 pandemic. Given marked variability in vaccines effectiveness and the lack of evidence of facemask efficiency in preventing spread of infection, all preventive measures should be used as a single package. People might feel false sense of safety when engaging in any of these COVID-prevention behaviors, as predicted by risk compensation theory. this review aims to address the ongoing debate about risk compensation during COVID-19 pandemic; to summarize the findings of previous studies about it; and to provide new evidence base of the effects of a specific preventive measure on the other measures.
Methods: A structured search on PubMed and Google Scholar on January 8, 2024 for ever published articles in English using keywords in different combinations (“Peltzman effect” OR ‘risk compensation’ OR ‘risk homeostasis’) AND (‘COVID19’ OR ‘COVID-19’ OR ‘covid19’ OR ‘covid-19’ OR ‘SARS CoV2’ OR ‘SARSCoV-2’ OR‘SARS-CoV-2’ OR ‘SARS-COV2’) AND (‘face mask’ OR ‘face cover’) AND (“distancing” OR social distancing”) AND (“Vaccines’ OR “Vaccination”) AND (‘hand hygiene’) AND (‘Sanitizers’). The search included various study designs including both observational and experimental studies.
Results: Studies showed conflicting results and no definite conclusion can be drawn about the risk compensation during COVID-19 pandemic.
Conclusion: Current literature failed to provide a solid evidence of risk compensation during the current pandemic. More community-based intervention studies are needed to provide solid bases for future pandemics.
Keywords
Peltzman Effect, Risk Compensation, Risk Homeostasis, COVID-19
References
- WHO Director-General’s opening remarks at the media briefing on COVID19 -March 2020. Available at: https://www.who.int/director-general/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-opening-remarks-at-the-media-briefing-on-covid-19---21-december-2020 Accessed: January 8, 2024 Accessed: January 8, 2024.
- Hedlund J. Risky business: safety regulations, risks compensation, and individual behavior. Inj Prev. 2000;6:82-90.
- Peltzman S. The effects of automobile safety regulation. Journal of Political Economy. 1975;83:677-725.
- Traeger MW, Cornelisse VJ, Asselin J, Price B, Roth JN, Willcox J, et al; PrEPX Study Team. Association of HIV preexposure prophylaxis with incidence of sexually transmitted infections among individuals at high risk of HIV infection. JAMA. 2019;321:1380-1390.
- Golub SA, KowalczykW, Weinberger CL, Parsons J. Preexposure prophylaxis and predicted condom use among high-risk men who have sex with men. J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr. 2010;54:548-55.
- Pless B. Risk Compensation: Revisited and Rebutted. Safety 2016; 2:16.
- Luckman A, Zeitoun H, Isoni A, Loomes G, Vlaev I, Powdthavee N, Read D. Risk Compensation During COVID-19: The Im-pact of Face Mask Usage on Social Distancing. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied. 2021;27(4):722–738.
- Hall P, Meng G, Sakib M, Quah A, Agar T, Fong G. Do the vaccinated perform less distancing, mask wearing and hand hy-giene? A test of the risk compensation hypothesis in a representative sample during the COVID-19 pandemic. 2023;41:4027–4030.
- Radun I, Radun J, Esmaeilikia M, Lajunen T. Risk compensation and bicycle helmets: A false conclusion and uncritical cita-tions. Transportation Research Part F: Traffic Psychology and Behaviour, 2018;58:548–555.
- Phillips O, Fyhri A, Sagberg F. Risk compensation and bicycle helmets. Risk Analysis. 2011;31(8):1187–1195.