Research Article
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Physics‑Informed LSTM and EKF Fusion for Robust Battery SoC Estimation

Year 2026, Issue: Advanced Online Publication, 57 - 67, 05.02.2026
https://doi.org/10.55525/tjst.1812986
https://izlik.org/JA69JC97PD

Abstract

Reliable state‑of‑charge estimation remains difficult in the presence of long‑term ageing, open‑circuit‑voltage hysteresis, and variable operating profiles. We investigate a hybrid estimator that marries a first‑principles equivalent‑circuit model with sequence learners, coupled through a residual‑aware fusion rule. Using a minute‑resolution ageing dataset from a lithium‑titanate (LTO) cell (236,282 samples across 2500 cycles), we identify phase‑aware OCV‑to‑SoC lookup tables for charge and discharge, deploy an extended Kalman filter with soft half‑cycle anchoring, and train LSTM, 1D‑CNN, and Transformer baselines with physics‑informed regularization promoting Coulomb consistency and concordance between OCV and terminal voltage. The phase‑aware EKF attains MAE 0.04535 and RMSE 0.05057 on cycle‑wise averages. A stitched LSTM yields MAE 0.03023 and RMSE 0.05192. Residual‑weighted fusion of EKF and LSTM produces MAE 0.03049 and RMSE 0.03991, which represents a 21% reduction relative to EKF while preserving the LSTM’s low bias. A coarse parameter sweep over the circuit model confirms expected early‑life behavior, namely lower resistance and a longer polarization time constant. At the window level, a physics‑informed LSTM achieves MAE 0.0184. The fusion is model‑agnostic, requires no retraining of the base estimators, and adds negligible computational overhead. We release phase‑aware OCV tables, a trained LSTM, and configuration files for seamless one‑command reproduction.

References

  • International Energy Agency, “Global EV Outlook 2024,” 2024. [Online]. Available: https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2024
  • GL. Plett, “Extended Kalman filtering for battery management systems of LiPB-based HEV battery packs: Part 3. State and parameter estimation,” J Power Sources, vol. 134, no. 2, pp. 277–292, 2004, doi: https://doi.org/ 10.1016/j.jpowsour.2004.02.033.
  • H. Fang, Y. Wang, Z. Sahinoglu, T. Wada, and S. Hara, “State of charge estimation for lithium-ion batteries: An adaptive approach,” Control Eng Pract, vol. 25, pp. 45–54, 2014, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.conengprac.2013.12.006.
  • S. Yuan, H. Wu, and C. Yin, “State of Charge Estimation Using the Extended Kalman Filter for Battery Management Systems Based on the ARX Battery Model,” Energies (Basel), vol. 6, no. 1, pp. 444–470, 2013, doi: https://doi.org/ 10.3390/en6010444.
  • D. Sun, X. Yu, C. Zhang, C. Wang, and R. Huang, “State of charge estimation for lithium-ion battery based on an intelligent adaptive unscented Kalman filter,” Int J Energy Res, vol. 44, no. 14, pp. 11199–11218, 2020, doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/er.5690.
  • GL. Plett, “Extended Kalman filtering for battery management systems of LiPB-based HEV battery packs: Part 1: Background,” J Power Sources, vol. 134, no. 2, pp. 262–276, 2004.
  • IC. Dikmen, N. Yildiran, and T. Karadag, “Machine Learning Approaches for Enhancing the SoH Estimation of LTO Batteries,” International Journal of Automotive Science and Technology (IJASTECH), vol. 9, no. 1, pp. 48–59, 2025, doi: https://doi.org/10.30939/ijastech..1522403
  • N. Yildiran, IC. Dikmen, and T. Karadag, “State of Health Estimation of Lithium Titanate Oxide Batteries Through Data-Driven Techniques and Machine Learning,” in 2024 8th International Artificial Intelligence and Data Processing Symposium (IDAP), 2024, 10.1109/IDAP64064.2024.10711165.
  • A. Yunusoglu, D. Le, M. Isik, K. Tiwari, IC. Dikmen, and T. Karadag, “Battery State of Health Estimation Using LLM Framework,” in 2025 26th International Symposium on Quality Electronic Design (ISQED), Apr. 2025, pp. 1–8. doi: https://doi.org /10.1109/ISQED65160.2025.11014446.
  • E. Chemali, PJ. Kollmeyer, M. Preindl, R. Ahmed, and A. Emadi, “Long short-term memory-networks for accurate state of charge estimation of Li-ion batteries,” IEEE Transactions on Industrial Electronics, vol. 65, no. 8, pp. 6577–6587, 2018.
  • HM. Hussein, A. Aghmadi, MS. Abdelrahman, SMSH. Rafin, and O. Mohammed, “A review of battery state of charge estimation and management systems: Models and future prospective,” WIREs Energy and Environment, vol. 13, no. 1, p. e507, 2024, doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/wene.507.
  • H. Yu, H. Lu, Z. Zhang, and L. Yang, “A generic fusion framework integrating deep learning and Kalman filter for state of charge estimation of lithium-ion batteries: Analysis and comparison,” J Power Sources, vol. 623, p. 235493, 2024, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpowsour.2024.235493.
  • F. Wang, Z. Zhai, Z. Zhao, Y. Di, and X. Chen, “Physics-informed neural network for lithium-ion battery degradation stable modeling and prognosis,” Nat Commun, vol. 15, no. 1, p. 4332, 2024, doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-48779-z.
  • MS. Çetin, MT. Gençoğlu, and A. Dobrzycki, “Investigation of Charging Technologies for Electric Vehicles,” Turkish Journal of Science and Technology, vol. 19, no. 1, pp. 97–106, 2024, doi: https://doi.org/10.55525/tjst.1399120.
  • IC. Dikmen, YE. Ekici, T. Karadağ, T. Abasov, and SE. Hamamcı, “Electrification in Urban Transport: A Case Study with Real-time Data,” Balkan Journal of Electrical and Computer Engineering, vol. 9, no. 1, pp. 69–77, 2021, doi: https://doi.org/10.17694/bajece.862931.
  • YE. Ekici, IC. Dikmen, M. Nurmuhammed, and T. Karadağ, “A Review on Electric Vehicle Charging Systems and Current Status in Turkey,” International Journal of Automotive Science And Technology, vol. 5, no. 4, pp. 316–330, 2021, doi: https://doi.org/10.30939/ijastech..1011270.
  • D. Le, A. Yunusoglu, K. Tiwari, M. Isik, and IC. Dikmen, “Multimodal llm for intelligent transportation systems,” arXiv preprint arXiv:2412.11683, 2024, doi: https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2412.11683.
  • IC. Dikmen, T. Karadağ, and A. Arı, “2500 Cycle Single Cell Battery Aging Dataset,” 2025, IEEE. doi: https://doi.org/10.21227/0svj-e338.
  • T. Karadağ, T. Abbasov, and M. O. Karadağ, “Measuring, evaluating, and mapping the electromagnetic field levels in Turgut Ozal Medical Center building and environment,” Journal of Turgut Ozal Medical Center, vol. 21, pp. 186–195, 2014, doi: https://doi.org/10.7247/JTOMC.2014.1681.
  • YE. Ekici, O. Akdağ, AA. Aydın, and T. Karadağ, “Review and analysis of real-time big data of electric bus consumption data,” in Ankara International Congress on Scientific Research – VII, Ankara, Türkiye, 02 Aralık 2022, ss.1405-1418.
  • Nurmuhammed M., Akdağ O., Karadağ T., “Modified Archimedes optimization algorithm for global optimization problems: a comparative study,” Neural Comput. Appl., 36, 8007–8038, 2024. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00521-024-09497-1

Dayanıklı Pil SoC Tahmini için Fizik Bilgisine Dayalı LSTM ve EKF Füzyonu

Year 2026, Issue: Advanced Online Publication, 57 - 67, 05.02.2026
https://doi.org/10.55525/tjst.1812986
https://izlik.org/JA69JC97PD

Abstract

Uzun vadeli yaşlanma, açık devre voltajı histerezisi ve değişken çalışma profilleri söz konusu olduğunda, güvenilir şarj durumu tahmini yapmak zor olmaya devam etmektedir. Biz, kalıntı farkında füzyon kuralı ile birleştirilen, ilk ilkelere dayalı eşdeğer devre modelini sekans öğrenicilerle birleştiren bir hibrit tahminciyi araştırıyoruz. Lityum titanat (LTO) hücresinden elde edilen dakika çözünürlüklü yaşlanma veri setini (2500 döngüde 236.282 örnek) kullanarak, şarj ve deşarj için faz farkında OCV-SoC arama tabloları belirliyor, yumuşak yarım döngü sabitleme ile genişletilmiş Kalman filtresi uyguluyor ve LSTM, 1D-CNN ve Transformer temel modellerini, OCV ve terminal voltajı arasında Coulomb tutarlılığını ve uyumu destekleyen fizik bilgisine dayalı düzenleme ile eğitiyoruz. Faz farkında EKF, döngü bazında ortalamalarda MAE 0,04535 ve RMSE 0,05057 değerlerine ulaşıyor. Birleştirilmiş LSTM, MAE 0,03023 ve RMSE 0,05192 değerleri veriyor. EKF ve LSTM'nin kalıntı ağırlıklı füzyonu, MAE 0,03049 ve RMSE 0,03991 değerleri verir; bu, LSTM'nin düşük önyargısını korurken EKF'ye göre %21'lik bir azalma anlamına gelir. Devre modeli üzerinde yapılan kaba parametre taraması, beklenen erken yaşam davranışını, yani daha düşük direnç ve daha uzun polarizasyon zaman sabitini doğrulamaktadır. Pencere düzeyinde, fizik bilgisine dayalı LSTM, MAE 0,0184 değerine ulaşmaktadır. Füzyon, modelden bağımsızdır, temel tahmincilerin yeniden eğitilmesini gerektirmez ve ihmal edilebilir düzeyde hesaplama yükü ekler. Kesintisiz tek komutlu yeniden üretim için faz farkında OCV tabloları, eğitilmiş LSTM ve yapılandırma dosyalarını yayınlıyoruz.

References

  • International Energy Agency, “Global EV Outlook 2024,” 2024. [Online]. Available: https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2024
  • GL. Plett, “Extended Kalman filtering for battery management systems of LiPB-based HEV battery packs: Part 3. State and parameter estimation,” J Power Sources, vol. 134, no. 2, pp. 277–292, 2004, doi: https://doi.org/ 10.1016/j.jpowsour.2004.02.033.
  • H. Fang, Y. Wang, Z. Sahinoglu, T. Wada, and S. Hara, “State of charge estimation for lithium-ion batteries: An adaptive approach,” Control Eng Pract, vol. 25, pp. 45–54, 2014, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.conengprac.2013.12.006.
  • S. Yuan, H. Wu, and C. Yin, “State of Charge Estimation Using the Extended Kalman Filter for Battery Management Systems Based on the ARX Battery Model,” Energies (Basel), vol. 6, no. 1, pp. 444–470, 2013, doi: https://doi.org/ 10.3390/en6010444.
  • D. Sun, X. Yu, C. Zhang, C. Wang, and R. Huang, “State of charge estimation for lithium-ion battery based on an intelligent adaptive unscented Kalman filter,” Int J Energy Res, vol. 44, no. 14, pp. 11199–11218, 2020, doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/er.5690.
  • GL. Plett, “Extended Kalman filtering for battery management systems of LiPB-based HEV battery packs: Part 1: Background,” J Power Sources, vol. 134, no. 2, pp. 262–276, 2004.
  • IC. Dikmen, N. Yildiran, and T. Karadag, “Machine Learning Approaches for Enhancing the SoH Estimation of LTO Batteries,” International Journal of Automotive Science and Technology (IJASTECH), vol. 9, no. 1, pp. 48–59, 2025, doi: https://doi.org/10.30939/ijastech..1522403
  • N. Yildiran, IC. Dikmen, and T. Karadag, “State of Health Estimation of Lithium Titanate Oxide Batteries Through Data-Driven Techniques and Machine Learning,” in 2024 8th International Artificial Intelligence and Data Processing Symposium (IDAP), 2024, 10.1109/IDAP64064.2024.10711165.
  • A. Yunusoglu, D. Le, M. Isik, K. Tiwari, IC. Dikmen, and T. Karadag, “Battery State of Health Estimation Using LLM Framework,” in 2025 26th International Symposium on Quality Electronic Design (ISQED), Apr. 2025, pp. 1–8. doi: https://doi.org /10.1109/ISQED65160.2025.11014446.
  • E. Chemali, PJ. Kollmeyer, M. Preindl, R. Ahmed, and A. Emadi, “Long short-term memory-networks for accurate state of charge estimation of Li-ion batteries,” IEEE Transactions on Industrial Electronics, vol. 65, no. 8, pp. 6577–6587, 2018.
  • HM. Hussein, A. Aghmadi, MS. Abdelrahman, SMSH. Rafin, and O. Mohammed, “A review of battery state of charge estimation and management systems: Models and future prospective,” WIREs Energy and Environment, vol. 13, no. 1, p. e507, 2024, doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/wene.507.
  • H. Yu, H. Lu, Z. Zhang, and L. Yang, “A generic fusion framework integrating deep learning and Kalman filter for state of charge estimation of lithium-ion batteries: Analysis and comparison,” J Power Sources, vol. 623, p. 235493, 2024, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpowsour.2024.235493.
  • F. Wang, Z. Zhai, Z. Zhao, Y. Di, and X. Chen, “Physics-informed neural network for lithium-ion battery degradation stable modeling and prognosis,” Nat Commun, vol. 15, no. 1, p. 4332, 2024, doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-48779-z.
  • MS. Çetin, MT. Gençoğlu, and A. Dobrzycki, “Investigation of Charging Technologies for Electric Vehicles,” Turkish Journal of Science and Technology, vol. 19, no. 1, pp. 97–106, 2024, doi: https://doi.org/10.55525/tjst.1399120.
  • IC. Dikmen, YE. Ekici, T. Karadağ, T. Abasov, and SE. Hamamcı, “Electrification in Urban Transport: A Case Study with Real-time Data,” Balkan Journal of Electrical and Computer Engineering, vol. 9, no. 1, pp. 69–77, 2021, doi: https://doi.org/10.17694/bajece.862931.
  • YE. Ekici, IC. Dikmen, M. Nurmuhammed, and T. Karadağ, “A Review on Electric Vehicle Charging Systems and Current Status in Turkey,” International Journal of Automotive Science And Technology, vol. 5, no. 4, pp. 316–330, 2021, doi: https://doi.org/10.30939/ijastech..1011270.
  • D. Le, A. Yunusoglu, K. Tiwari, M. Isik, and IC. Dikmen, “Multimodal llm for intelligent transportation systems,” arXiv preprint arXiv:2412.11683, 2024, doi: https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2412.11683.
  • IC. Dikmen, T. Karadağ, and A. Arı, “2500 Cycle Single Cell Battery Aging Dataset,” 2025, IEEE. doi: https://doi.org/10.21227/0svj-e338.
  • T. Karadağ, T. Abbasov, and M. O. Karadağ, “Measuring, evaluating, and mapping the electromagnetic field levels in Turgut Ozal Medical Center building and environment,” Journal of Turgut Ozal Medical Center, vol. 21, pp. 186–195, 2014, doi: https://doi.org/10.7247/JTOMC.2014.1681.
  • YE. Ekici, O. Akdağ, AA. Aydın, and T. Karadağ, “Review and analysis of real-time big data of electric bus consumption data,” in Ankara International Congress on Scientific Research – VII, Ankara, Türkiye, 02 Aralık 2022, ss.1405-1418.
  • Nurmuhammed M., Akdağ O., Karadağ T., “Modified Archimedes optimization algorithm for global optimization problems: a comparative study,” Neural Comput. Appl., 36, 8007–8038, 2024. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00521-024-09497-1
There are 21 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Subjects Electrical Energy Storage
Journal Section Research Article
Authors

İsmail Can Dikmen 0000-0002-7747-7777

Ali Arı 0000-0002-5071-6790

Teoman Karadag 0000-0002-7682-7771

Submission Date October 29, 2025
Acceptance Date November 18, 2025
Early Pub Date February 5, 2026
Publication Date February 5, 2026
DOI https://doi.org/10.55525/tjst.1812986
IZ https://izlik.org/JA69JC97PD
Published in Issue Year 2026 Issue: Advanced Online Publication

Cite

APA Dikmen, İ. C., Arı, A., & Karadag, T. (2026). Physics‑Informed LSTM and EKF Fusion for Robust Battery SoC Estimation. Turkish Journal of Science and Technology, Advanced Online Publication, 57-67. https://doi.org/10.55525/tjst.1812986
AMA 1.Dikmen İC, Arı A, Karadag T. Physics‑Informed LSTM and EKF Fusion for Robust Battery SoC Estimation. TJST. 2026;(Advanced Online Publication):57-67. doi:10.55525/tjst.1812986
Chicago Dikmen, İsmail Can, Ali Arı, and Teoman Karadag. 2026. “Physics‑Informed LSTM and EKF Fusion for Robust Battery SoC Estimation”. Turkish Journal of Science and Technology, no. Advanced Online Publication: 57-67. https://doi.org/10.55525/tjst.1812986.
EndNote Dikmen İC, Arı A, Karadag T (February 1, 2026) Physics‑Informed LSTM and EKF Fusion for Robust Battery SoC Estimation. Turkish Journal of Science and Technology Advanced Online Publication 57–67.
IEEE [1]İ. C. Dikmen, A. Arı, and T. Karadag, “Physics‑Informed LSTM and EKF Fusion for Robust Battery SoC Estimation”, TJST, no. Advanced Online Publication, pp. 57–67, Feb. 2026, doi: 10.55525/tjst.1812986.
ISNAD Dikmen, İsmail Can - Arı, Ali - Karadag, Teoman. “Physics‑Informed LSTM and EKF Fusion for Robust Battery SoC Estimation”. Turkish Journal of Science and Technology. Advanced Online Publication (February 1, 2026): 57-67. https://doi.org/10.55525/tjst.1812986.
JAMA 1.Dikmen İC, Arı A, Karadag T. Physics‑Informed LSTM and EKF Fusion for Robust Battery SoC Estimation. TJST. 2026;:57–67.
MLA Dikmen, İsmail Can, et al. “Physics‑Informed LSTM and EKF Fusion for Robust Battery SoC Estimation”. Turkish Journal of Science and Technology, no. Advanced Online Publication, Feb. 2026, pp. 57-67, doi:10.55525/tjst.1812986.
Vancouver 1.Dikmen İC, Arı A, Karadag T. Physics‑Informed LSTM and EKF Fusion for Robust Battery SoC Estimation. TJST [Internet]. 2026 Feb. 1;(Advanced Online Publication):57-6. Available from: https://izlik.org/JA69JC97PD

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  • Prof. Dr. Ayşe Gürel İNANLI
  • Prof. Dr. Serap SALER
  • Prof. Dr. Kenan KÖPRÜCÜ
  • Prof. Dr. Resul DAŞ

Ferhat Uçar, 1983 yılında Adana'da doğdu. Lisans eğitiminin ardından dört yıl süresince Adana, Gaziantep, Mersin ve İskenderun bölgelerinde uluslararası firmalarda yazılım satış mühendisi, otomasyon mühendisi ve proje mühendisi olarak görev yaptı. 2009 yılında akademik kariyere adım atan Uçar, 2018 yılında Fırat Üniversitesi Elektrik Elektronik Mühendisliği Anabilim Dalında makine öğrenmesi üzerine doktorasını tamamladı.

Şu anda Fırat Üniversitesi Teknoloji Fakültesi Yazılım Mühendisliği bölümünde öğretim üyesi olarak görev yapmakta olan Uçar, aynı zamanda Sam Houston State Üniversitesi ile uluslararası ortak lisans anlaşması bulunan programda İngilizce olarak yazılım mühendisliği dersleri vermektedir. Dergipark bünyesinde TR Dizinde taranan "Turkish Journal of Science & Technology", "Fırat Üniversitesi Mühendislik Bilimleri Dergisi" ve yine Dergipark'ta bulunan "Fırat Üniversitesi Fen Bilimleri Dergisi"nin baş editörlüğünü de yürütmektedir. Akademik kariyeri boyunca idari görevler de üstlenen Uçar, Teknoloji Fakültesi Dekan Yardımcılığı görevinin ardından Fırat Üniversitesi Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü'nde müdür yardımcısı olarak görev yapmaktadır.

Uçar, IEEE, Elsevier, Wiley, Taylor and Francis ve Nature gibi prestijli platformlarda çok sayıda hakemlik görevini üstlenmiş, devam eden TÜBİTAK projelerinde ve bir COST aksiyonu projesinde araştırmacı olarak yer almaktadır. Fırat Üniversitesi'nin en büyük bütçeli projelerinden biri olan Code23 Fırat Yazılım Atölyesi'nin proje yönetim ekibinde de yer alan Uçar, mobil uygulama geliştirme eğitimi mentörü olarak da görev yapmaktadır.

Yapay zeka ve veri bilimi üzerine yoğunlaşan akademik çalışmalarına devam eden Ferhat Uçar, sektör ve akademi arasında köprü oluşturmayı hedefleyen çalışma ve projelerle kariyer yoluna devam etmektedir.

Image Processing, Pattern Recognition, Machine Learning, Deep Learning, Neural Networks, Big Data, Data Mining and Knowledge Discovery, Data Engineering and Data Science, Artificial Intelligence, Modelling and Simulation, Programming Languages, Signal Processing

Danışma Kurulu

Biological Sciences, Algology, Freshwater Ecology
Chemical Sciences, Colloid and Surface Chemistry
Electrical Machines and Drives, Photovoltaic Power Systems, Power Electronics
Energy, Catalytic Activity, Chemical Reaction
Analytical Biochemistry, Enzymes, Industrial Microbiology, Molecular Genetics, Virology
Control Theoryand Applications, Mechatronics Engineering
Geomatic Engineering, Navigation and Position Fixing, Surveying (Incl. Hydrographic Surveying), Geodesy
Environmental Pollution and Prevention, Solid and Hazardous Wastes, Life Cycle Assessment and Industrial Ecology
Biomaterial , Material Design and Behaviors, Materials Engineering, Plating Technology, Material Characterization, Material Production Technologies
Atomic and Molecular Physics, Engineering
Analytical Spectrometry, Electroanalytical Chemistry
Information and Computing Sciences, Data Structures and Algorithms, Software Engineering (Other), Statistics, Engineering
Construction Materials
Solid Mechanics, Machine Design and Machine Equipment, Numerical Modelling and Mechanical Characterisation
General Physics, Electronic and Magnetic Properties of Condensed Matter; Superconductivity
General Geology, Structural Geology and Tectonics
E-State, Concurrent/Parallel Systems and Technologies
Ecology (Other), Engineering
Applied Mathematics
Physics Education, Physical Sciences, Condensed Matter Modelling and Density Functional Theory
Astrobiology
Machine Vision , Electrical Machines and Drives
Computer Vision, Image Processing, Artificial Intelligence (Other)
Information Systems, Networking and Communications, Information Security and Cryptology, Big Data, Data Mining and Knowledge Discovery, Artificial Intelligence, Computer System Software, Computer Software
Aquaculture and Fisheries, Fish Anatomy, Fisheries Management
Computer Software, Chemical-Biological Recovery Techniques and Ore Dressing
Deep Learning
Electrical Circuits and Systems, Electrical Energy Generation (Incl. Renewables, Excl. Photovoltaics), Electrical Machines and Drives