Forecasting Ro-Ro Freight Transportation Demand at Samsun Port: A Hybrid Method Approach

Abstract

Türkiye's extensive coastline and geopolitics position necessitates the importance of Ro-Ro transportation with neighbouring countries. Türkiye's rapidly growing Ro-Ro transportation significantly contributes to imports and exports, which is of great importance to the national economy. Samsun Port is one of the most active ports in Türkiye's Ro-Ro transportation sector, operating in the Black Sea region. This study examined Ro-Ro transportation at Samsun Port, and future cargo forecasting was conducted. For this purpose, artificial neural networks and time series analysis methods were combined. Input variables used in the study included the number of Ro-Ro ships arriving at the port between 2009 and 2021, population figures, a specialized CPI indicator (fresh fruits and vegetables), and export values. The output variable was the amount of cargo carried by Ro-Ro ships. According to the results obtained, it was observed that Samsun Port would have sufficient capacity for Ro-Ro transportation in the next 27 months in terms of wharf, port area, and operational space.

Keywords

• Samsun Port
• Ro-Ro transportation
• Port capacity
• Forecasting

Samsun Limanı'nda Ro-Ro Yük Taşımacılığı Talebinin Tahmini: Hibrit Bir Yöntem Yaklaşımı

Abstract

Türkiye'nin geniş kıyı şeridi ve jeopolitik konumu, komşu ülkelerle Ro-Ro taşımacılığının önemini gerektirmektedir. Türkiye’nin hızla büyüyen Ro-Ro taşımacılığı, ülke ekonomisi için büyük önem taşıyan ithalat ve ihracata önemli katkı sağlamaktadır. Samsun Limanı, Karadeniz bölgesinde faaliyet gösteren, Türkiye Ro-Ro taşımacılığı sektörünün en aktif limanlarından biridir. Bu çalışmada Samsun Limanı'ndaki Ro-Ro taşımacılığı incelenmiş ve geleceğe yönelik kargo miktarı tahminlemesi yapılmıştır. Bu amaçla yapay sinir ağları ve zaman serisi analiz yöntemleri birleştirilmiştir. Çalışmada kullanılan girdi değişkenleri arasında 2009-2021 yılları arasında Samsun Limanı’na gelen Ro-Ro gemilerinin sayısı, nüfus rakamları, özel tanımlı TÜFE göstergesi (taze meyve ve sebze) ve ihracat değerleri yer almaktadır. Çıktı değişkeni ise Ro-Ro gemilerinin taşıdığı kargo miktarıdır. Elde edilen sonuçlara göre Samsun Limanı'nın önümüzdeki 27 ay içerisinde iskele, liman alanı ve operasyonel alan açısından Ro-Ro taşımacılığı için yeterli kapasiteye sahip olacağı görülmüştür.

Keywords

• Samsun Limanı
• Ro-Ro taşımacılığı
• Liman kapasitesi
• Tahminleme

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