Emtia Fiyatları İkinci El Değerler için Önemli midir? Capesize Piyasası Üzerine Bir Uygulama

Year 2019, Volume: 5 Issue: 1, 44 - 52, 01.11.2019

Sadık Özlen Başer , Abdullah Açık

Abstract

Bu çalışmada Capesize gemilerinin ikinci el değerleri ile bu gemilerin en temel yükü olan demir cevheri fiyatı arasındaki ilişkinin incelenmesi amaçlanmaktadır. Bu doğrultuda serilerin içerdikleri şoklar arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisini tespit etmek için asimetrik nedensellik testi kullanılmaktadır. Bu test değişkenlerdeki pozitif ve negatif şokları ayrıştırarak doğrusal olmayan ilişkileri tespit edebilmektedir. Piyasadaki ajanların gelen şokun (haberin) türüne göre farklı tepkiler verebilecekleri düşünüldüğünde, bu yöntem önemli bir avantaj sağlamaktadır. Çalışmada kullanılan veri seti 227 aylık gözlemden oluşmaktadır ve Temmuz 1999 ile Mayıs 2018 tarihleri arasını kapsamaktadır. Elde edilen sonuçlara göre, demir cevheri fiyatındaki pozitif şoklar 5 yaşındaki Capesize gemisinin değerindeki pozitif şokların nedenidir. Ayrıca demir cevherindeki negatif şoklar da 5 yaşındaki Capesize gemi değerindeki negatif şokların nedenidir. Bu sonuçların literatüre farklı bir bakış açısı kazandırması ve araştırmacılara yeni bir pencere açması umulmaktadır. Ek olarak, demir cevheri fiyatlarının sektöre yatırım yapacak olanlara Capesize gemi değerleri için öncü gösterge oldukları söylenebilmektedir. Emtia fiyatındaki arttırıcı şoklar gemi değerindeki arttırıcı şokları da tetiklemektedir, bu yüzden yatırım stratejilerini gerçekleştirirken emtia fiyatlarını takip etmek belirsizlikten kaynaklı riskleri azaltabilir ve hatta çok önemli kar fırsatları da sağlayabilir.

Keywords

Capesize gemi, İkinci el değer, Emtia Fiyatı, Asimetrik nedensellik

Do Commodity Prices Matter for Second Hand Values? An Empirical Research on Capesize Market

Abstract

In this study, it is aimed to investigate the relationship
between second hand values of Capesize ships and iron ore prices which is the
basic loads of Capesize type ships. In this respect, the asymmetric causality
test has been used to determine the causal relationships between the shocks
contained in the series. This test examines the nonlinear relationships by
separating the positive and negative shocks in the series. Because the
reactions of the agents in the market may also change according to the type of
shock (news). The data set used in the study consists of 227 monthly
observations covering the dates between July 1999 and May 2018. According to
the results, positive shocks in iron ore price are the cause of positive shocks
in the value of 5-year-old Capesize vessel. Furthermore, the negative shocks in
the iron ore price are the cause of negative shocks in the value of 5 years old
Capesize vessel. These results are hoped to bring a different perspective to
the literature and open a new window to the researchers. In addition, iron ore
prices for those who plan to invest in this sector can be said to be the
leading indicator for second hand Capesize vessel values. Increasing shocks in
commodity prices trigger shocks which increase the ship value. Therefore,
realizing the investment strategies by following the commodity prices can
reduce the risks caused by uncertainty and even lead to significant profit
opportunities. 

Keywords

Capesize ship, Second hand value, Commodity price, Asymmetric causality

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