Forecasting Foreign Trade in Türkiye’s Agri-Food Sector: A Comparative Analysis of SARIMA, LSTM, and GRU Models

Zekiye Şengül Abedı

doi:10.30910/turkjans.1756810

Forecasting Foreign Trade in Türkiye’s Agri-Food Sector: A Comparative Analysis of SARIMA, LSTM, and GRU Models

Abstract

In a global economic conjuncture shaped by geopolitical tensions, climate shocks, and supply chain vulnerabilities, the accurate forecasting of foreign trade data underpins proactive policy design for national food security and economic stability. This study systematically compares the forecasting performance of Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) models, two modern deep learning approaches, and the traditional Seasonal ARIMA (SARIMA) model to forecast Türkiye's agriculture, food, and beverage foreign trade series. Monthly data for the period 2004-2020 were used to train the models, and their forecasting performance was measured using MAE, MSE, RMSE, and MAPE metrics over the test period 2021-2025. The results of the analysis indicate that the most appropriate model depends on the structure of the series. Whereas the SARIMA model outperforms in export series with regular seasonal patterns, the GRU model performs better in import series with complex nonlinear dynamics. These results underline the need to adopt a data-driven and problem-specific modeling strategy rather than relying on a universal "best model". In light of these findings, this study recommends the adoption of a hybrid "model portfolio" approach that combines SARIMA models for predictable seasonal trends and deep learning methods for managing volatile and shock-prone environments to enhance the resilience of national trade strategies.

Keywords

References

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Details

Primary Language

English

Subjects

Agricultural Economics (Other)

Journal Section

Research Article

Authors

Zekiye Şengül Abedı ^*
0000-0002-2496-2867
Türkiye

Publication Date

October 17, 2025

Submission Date

August 2, 2025

Acceptance Date

September 29, 2025

Published in Issue

Year 2025 Volume: 12 Number: 4

DOI

https://doi.org/10.30910/turkjans.1756810

IZ

https://izlik.org/JA99ZA63US

Cite

RIS / Bibtex

APA

Şengül Abedı, Z. (2025). Forecasting Foreign Trade in Türkiye’s Agri-Food Sector: A Comparative Analysis of SARIMA, LSTM, and GRU Models. Turkish Journal of Agricultural and Natural Sciences, 12(4), 1007-1026. https://doi.org/10.30910/turkjans.1756810

AMA

1.Şengül Abedı Z. Forecasting Foreign Trade in Türkiye’s Agri-Food Sector: A Comparative Analysis of SARIMA, LSTM, and GRU Models. TURKJANS. 2025;12(4):1007-1026. doi:10.30910/turkjans.1756810

Chicago

Şengül Abedı, Zekiye. 2025. “Forecasting Foreign Trade in Türkiye’s Agri-Food Sector: A Comparative Analysis of SARIMA, LSTM, and GRU Models”. Turkish Journal of Agricultural and Natural Sciences 12 (4): 1007-26. https://doi.org/10.30910/turkjans.1756810.

EndNote

Şengül Abedı Z (October 1, 2025) Forecasting Foreign Trade in Türkiye’s Agri-Food Sector: A Comparative Analysis of SARIMA, LSTM, and GRU Models. Turkish Journal of Agricultural and Natural Sciences 12 4 1007–1026.

IEEE

[1]Z. Şengül Abedı, “Forecasting Foreign Trade in Türkiye’s Agri-Food Sector: A Comparative Analysis of SARIMA, LSTM, and GRU Models”, TURKJANS, vol. 12, no. 4, pp. 1007–1026, Oct. 2025, doi: 10.30910/turkjans.1756810.

ISNAD

Şengül Abedı, Zekiye. “Forecasting Foreign Trade in Türkiye’s Agri-Food Sector: A Comparative Analysis of SARIMA, LSTM, and GRU Models”. Turkish Journal of Agricultural and Natural Sciences 12/4 (October 1, 2025): 1007-1026. https://doi.org/10.30910/turkjans.1756810.

JAMA

1.Şengül Abedı Z. Forecasting Foreign Trade in Türkiye’s Agri-Food Sector: A Comparative Analysis of SARIMA, LSTM, and GRU Models. TURKJANS. 2025;12:1007–1026.

MLA

Şengül Abedı, Zekiye. “Forecasting Foreign Trade in Türkiye’s Agri-Food Sector: A Comparative Analysis of SARIMA, LSTM, and GRU Models”. Turkish Journal of Agricultural and Natural Sciences, vol. 12, no. 4, Oct. 2025, pp. 1007-26, doi:10.30910/turkjans.1756810.

Vancouver

1.Zekiye Şengül Abedı. Forecasting Foreign Trade in Türkiye’s Agri-Food Sector: A Comparative Analysis of SARIMA, LSTM, and GRU Models. TURKJANS. 2025 Oct. 1;12(4):1007-26. doi:10.30910/turkjans.1756810

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Journal of Applied Mathematics

https://doi.org/10.1155/jama/3278035