Forecasting Solar Radiation Based on Meteorological Data Using Machine Learning Techniques: A Case Study of Isparta

Buğra Güzel; Onur Sevli; Ersan Okatan

doi:10.29137/umagd.1268055

EN TR

Forecasting Solar Radiation Based on Meteorological Data Using Machine Learning Techniques: A Case Study of Isparta

Abstract

Solar energy systems which is one of renewable energy sources takes more interest and gains prevalence day by day. As in other many renewable energy sources, a significant problem in solar energy systems is the unstability of the energy that the system will provide. Prediction of the energy to be obtained is very important in this respect. In this study, solar radiation is predicted using meteorological data taken from the General Directorate of Meteorology for Isparta. For predictions, the random forest (RF), KNN (k-Nearest Neighbor), ANN (Artificial Neural Networks) and Deep Learning (DL) methods are used. In addition, the results of dummy variable usage for time data are examined with these different methods. According to the findings obtained, it is seen that the dummy variable usage increases performance for ANN and DL methods but decreases performance for random forest and KNN methods. Best results are obtained for the prediction of the solar radiation with ANN and DL.

Keywords

Artificial neural networks, deep learning, dummy variable, random forest, solar radiation prediction

Makine Öğrenmesi Teknikleri ile Meteorolojik Verilere Dayalı Güneş Işınımı Tahmini: Isparta Örneği

Abstract

Yenilenebilir enerji kaynaklarından olan güneş enerji sistemleri her geçen gün daha fazla ilgi görmekte ve kullanımı yaygınlaşmaktadır. Diğer birçok yenilenebilir enerji kaynaklarında olduğu gibi güneş enerji sistemlerindeki önemli bir sorun sistemin sağlayacağı enerjinin sürekli olmamasıdır. Elde edilecek enerjinin tahmin edilebilmesi bu bakımdan oldukça önemlidir. Bu çalışmada Meteoroloji Genel Müdürlüğü’nden Isparta ili için alınan meteorolojik veriler kullanılarak güneş ışınımı tahmini yapılmıştır. Tahmin işlemi için Rastgele Orman (RF), k-EYK (k-En Yakın Komşu), YSA (Yapay Sinir Ağları) ve Derin Öğrenme yöntemleri kullanılmıştır. Ayrıca zaman verileri için kukla değişken kullanımının bu farklı metotlar ile oluşturduğu sonuçlar incelenmiştir. Elde edilen bulgulara göre kukla değişken kullanımının YSA ve Derin Öğrenme yöntemlerinde performansı arttırdığı, Rastgele orman ve k-EYK yöntemlerinde ise performansı düşürdüğü görülmüştür. YSA ve derin öğrenme ile güneş ışınımı tahmininde en iyi sonuçlar elde edilmiştir.

Keywords

derin öğrenme, kukla değişken, rastgele orman, güneş ışınımı tahmini, yapay sinir ağları

Thanks

Meteoroloji Genel Müdürlüğü

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Details

Primary Language

English

Subjects

Engineering

Journal Section

Research Article

Authors

Buğra Güzel ^*
0000-0003-0507-5207
Türkiye

Onur Sevli
0000-0002-8933-8395
Türkiye

Ersan Okatan
0000-0001-6511-3450
Türkiye

Early Pub Date

July 7, 2023

Publication Date

July 14, 2023

Submission Date

March 21, 2023

Acceptance Date

June 6, 2023

Published in Issue

Year 2023 Volume: 15 Number: 2

DOI

https://doi.org/10.29137/umagd.1268055

IZ

https://izlik.org/JA65CE54ZK

APA

Güzel, B., Sevli, O., & Okatan, E. (2023). Forecasting Solar Radiation Based on Meteorological Data Using Machine Learning Techniques: A Case Study of Isparta. International Journal of Engineering Research and Development, 15(2), 704-713. https://doi.org/10.29137/umagd.1268055

AMA

1.Güzel B, Sevli O, Okatan E. Forecasting Solar Radiation Based on Meteorological Data Using Machine Learning Techniques: A Case Study of Isparta. IJERAD. 2023;15(2):704-713. doi:10.29137/umagd.1268055

Chicago

Güzel, Buğra, Onur Sevli, and Ersan Okatan. 2023. “Forecasting Solar Radiation Based on Meteorological Data Using Machine Learning Techniques: A Case Study of Isparta”. International Journal of Engineering Research and Development 15 (2): 704-13. https://doi.org/10.29137/umagd.1268055.

EndNote

Güzel B, Sevli O, Okatan E (July 1, 2023) Forecasting Solar Radiation Based on Meteorological Data Using Machine Learning Techniques: A Case Study of Isparta. International Journal of Engineering Research and Development 15 2 704–713.

IEEE

[1]B. Güzel, O. Sevli, and E. Okatan, “Forecasting Solar Radiation Based on Meteorological Data Using Machine Learning Techniques: A Case Study of Isparta”, IJERAD, vol. 15, no. 2, pp. 704–713, July 2023, doi: 10.29137/umagd.1268055.

ISNAD

Güzel, Buğra - Sevli, Onur - Okatan, Ersan. “Forecasting Solar Radiation Based on Meteorological Data Using Machine Learning Techniques: A Case Study of Isparta”. International Journal of Engineering Research and Development 15/2 (July 1, 2023): 704-713. https://doi.org/10.29137/umagd.1268055.

JAMA

1.Güzel B, Sevli O, Okatan E. Forecasting Solar Radiation Based on Meteorological Data Using Machine Learning Techniques: A Case Study of Isparta. IJERAD. 2023;15:704–713.

MLA

Güzel, Buğra, et al. “Forecasting Solar Radiation Based on Meteorological Data Using Machine Learning Techniques: A Case Study of Isparta”. International Journal of Engineering Research and Development, vol. 15, no. 2, July 2023, pp. 704-13, doi:10.29137/umagd.1268055.

Vancouver

1.Buğra Güzel, Onur Sevli, Ersan Okatan. Forecasting Solar Radiation Based on Meteorological Data Using Machine Learning Techniques: A Case Study of Isparta. IJERAD. 2023 Jul. 1;15(2):704-13. doi:10.29137/umagd.1268055

Cited By

Farklı makine öğrenmesi yaklaşımları ile Türkiye'nin solar radyasyon tahmini

Geomatik

https://doi.org/10.29128/geomatik.1374383

Machine Learning – Based Prediction of Daily Global Solar Radiation Using Local Meteorological Observations

Gazi Üniversitesi Fen Bilimleri Dergisi Part C: Tasarım ve Teknoloji

https://doi.org/10.29109/gujsc.1830524

Kırıkkale University, Faculty of Engineering and Natural Science, 71450 Yahşihan / Kırıkkale, Türkiye.

ijerad@kku.edu.tr