Tracking the Performance of Soyabean Production in Nigeria

Abstract

The present research empirically examined the growth performance of soyabean production in Nigeria using time series data which spanned from 1961 to 2017, sourced from FAO database. The collected data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, growth model, instability index, Hazell decomposition model, Nerlovian’s model and ARIMA model. Empirical evidence showed that the growth in the production trend of soyabean in Nigeria is majorly driven by an increase in the area and not yield which is not favorable for sustainable soyabean food security in the country. Furthermore, risk and uncertainty were observed to be the major source of instability in the production of soyabean in the country. Therein, the risk impacted negatively on the area allocation decision of the soyabean farmers in the studied area. The forecasted production trend showed that the country’s soyabean production will observe a paradigm shift from the area as the major driver of production to yield. Thus, technology will be the major driver of soyabean production in Nigeria. The trend if sustained will be a breakthrough for the country’s soyabean food security and will curtail the incessant farmers/herders clashes and tenurial conflicts owing to high pressure and competing demand for arable land for other purposes. Therefore, policies which will convert one-quarter of the arable land to other agricultural uses should be welcome as the future production trend of soyabean will be driven by technological advancement. In addition, the government should do more in subsidizing farm inputs in order to enhance farmers’ term of trade, thereby wading-off the risks that negatively impacted on the acreage allocation decision of the producers.  

Keywords

• Acreage response
• Growth
• Forecast
• Instability
• Soybean
• Nigeria

Nijerya'da Soya Fasulyesi Üretim Performansının İzlenmesi

Öz

Mevcut araştırma, Nijerya'daki soya fasulyesi üretiminin büyüme performansını, FAO veri tabanından elde edilen 1961'den 2017'ye uzanan zaman serisi verilerini kullanarak deneysel olarak incelemiştir. Toplanan veriler, tanımlayıcı istatistikler, büyüme modeli, kararsızlık indeksi, Hazell ayrışma modeli, Nerlovian modeli ve ARIMA modeli kullanılarak analiz edilmiştir. Ampirik kanıtlar, Nijerya'daki soya fasulyesinin üretim eğilimindeki büyümenin, büyük ölçüde üretim alanı artışından kaynaklandığını ve bunun ülkede sürdürülebilir soya fasulyesi gıda güvenliği için elverişli olmadığını göstermiştir. Ayrıca, ülkede soya fasulyesi üretiminde en büyük istikrarsızlık kaynağının risk ve belirsizlik olduğu görülmüştür. Burada risk, incelenen alandaki soya fasulyesi çiftçilerinin alan tahsisi kararını olumsuz etkilemiştir. Öngörülen üretim eğilimi, ülkedeki soya fasulyesi üretiminin, üretimin ana itici gücü olarak bölgeden bir paradigma kayması gözlemleyeceğini göstermektedir. Bu nedenle teknoloji, Nijerya'daki soya fasulyesi üretiminin ana itici gücü olacaktır. Sürdürülebilirse eğilim, ülkenin soya fasulyesi gıda güvenliği için bir dönüm noktası olacak ve yüksek baskı ve diğer amaçlar için ekilebilir arazi için rekabet eden talep nedeniyle aralıksız çiftçi/çoban çatışmalarını ve mülkiyet çatışmalarını azaltacaktır. Bu nedenle, soya fasulyesinin gelecekteki üretim eğilimi teknolojikgelişmeler tarafından yönlendirileceğinden, ekilebilir arazinin dörtte birini diğer tarımsal kullanımlara dönüştürecek politikalar memnuniyetle karşılanmalıdır. Buna ek olarak, hükümet çiftçilerin ticaret süresini iyileştirmek için çiftlik girdilerini sübvanse etmede daha fazlasını yapmalı ve böylece üreticilerin ekim alanı tahsis kararını olumsuz yönde etkileyen riskleri azaltmalıdır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Arazi tepkisi
• Büyüme
• Tahmin
• İstikrarsızlık
• Soya fasulyesi
• Nijerya

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