Tracking the Performance of Soyabean Production in Nigeria

Yıl 2021, Cilt: 31 Sayı: 1, 197 - 215, 30.03.2021

Sanusi Sadıq , Invinder Paul Sıngh Muhammad Makarfi Ahmad

https://doi.org/10.29133/yyutbd.737860

Cited By: 1

Öz

The present research empirically examined the growth performance of soyabean production in Nigeria using time series data which spanned from 1961 to 2017, sourced from FAO database. The collected data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, growth model, instability index, Hazell decomposition model, Nerlovian’s model and ARIMA model. Empirical evidence showed that the growth in the production trend of soyabean in Nigeria is majorly driven by an increase in the area and not yield which is not favorable for sustainable soyabean food security in the country. Furthermore, risk and uncertainty were observed to be the major source of instability in the production of soyabean in the country. Therein, the risk impacted negatively on the area allocation decision of the soyabean farmers in the studied area. The forecasted production trend showed that the country’s soyabean production will observe a paradigm shift from the area as the major driver of production to yield. Thus, technology will be the major driver of soyabean production in Nigeria. The trend if sustained will be a breakthrough for the country’s soyabean food security and will curtail the incessant farmers/herders clashes and tenurial conflicts owing to high pressure and competing demand for arable land for other purposes. Therefore, policies which will convert one-quarter of the arable land to other agricultural uses should be welcome as the future production trend of soyabean will be driven by technological advancement. In addition, the government should do more in subsidizing farm inputs in order to enhance farmers’ term of trade, thereby wading-off the risks that negatively impacted on the acreage allocation decision of the producers.  

Anahtar Kelimeler

Acreage response, Growth, Forecast, Instability, Soybean, Nigeria

Nijerya'da Soya Fasulyesi Üretim Performansının İzlenmesi

Öz

Mevcut araştırma, Nijerya'daki soya fasulyesi üretiminin büyüme performansını, FAO veri tabanından elde edilen 1961'den 2017'ye uzanan zaman serisi verilerini kullanarak deneysel olarak incelemiştir. Toplanan veriler, tanımlayıcı istatistikler, büyüme modeli, kararsızlık indeksi, Hazell ayrışma modeli, Nerlovian modeli ve ARIMA modeli kullanılarak analiz edilmiştir. Ampirik kanıtlar, Nijerya'daki soya fasulyesinin üretim eğilimindeki büyümenin, büyük ölçüde üretim alanı artışından kaynaklandığını ve bunun ülkede sürdürülebilir soya fasulyesi gıda güvenliği için elverişli olmadığını göstermiştir. Ayrıca, ülkede soya fasulyesi üretiminde en büyük istikrarsızlık kaynağının risk ve belirsizlik olduğu görülmüştür. Burada risk, incelenen alandaki soya fasulyesi çiftçilerinin alan tahsisi kararını olumsuz etkilemiştir. Öngörülen üretim eğilimi, ülkedeki soya fasulyesi üretiminin, üretimin ana itici gücü olarak bölgeden bir paradigma kayması gözlemleyeceğini göstermektedir. Bu nedenle teknoloji, Nijerya'daki soya fasulyesi üretiminin ana itici gücü olacaktır. Sürdürülebilirse eğilim, ülkenin soya fasulyesi gıda güvenliği için bir dönüm noktası olacak ve yüksek baskı ve diğer amaçlar için ekilebilir arazi için rekabet eden talep nedeniyle aralıksız çiftçi/çoban çatışmalarını ve mülkiyet çatışmalarını azaltacaktır. Bu nedenle, soya fasulyesinin gelecekteki üretim eğilimi teknolojikgelişmeler tarafından yönlendirileceğinden, ekilebilir arazinin dörtte birini diğer tarımsal kullanımlara dönüştürecek politikalar memnuniyetle karşılanmalıdır. Buna ek olarak, hükümet çiftçilerin ticaret süresini iyileştirmek için çiftlik girdilerini sübvanse etmede daha fazlasını yapmalı ve böylece üreticilerin ekim alanı tahsis kararını olumsuz yönde etkileyen riskleri azaltmalıdır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Arazi tepkisi, Büyüme, Tahmin, İstikrarsızlık, Soya fasulyesi, Nijerya

Kaynakça

• Agricultural Media Resources and Extension Centre (AMREC)(2007).Mapping of soybean production areas in Nigeria. Monograph Series #28, AMREC, University of Agriculture, Abeokuta, Nigeria. Ahmed, S.I. and Joshi, M.B.(2013).Analysis of instability and growth rate of cotton in three district of Marathwada. International Journal of Statistika and Mathematika, 6(3):121- 124 Ayalew, B.(2015).Supply response of maize in Ethiopia: Cointegeration and VectorError Correction Approach. Trends in Agricultural Economics, 8 (1):13-20 Bhowmick, B.C. and Goswami, J.(1998).Supply response of some important crops in Assam-An inter-district analysis. Agricultural Situation in India, 55(6):349-356 Box, G.E. and Jenkins, G.M.(1976).Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control. Holden Day, San Francisco. Boyal, V.K., Pant, D.C. and Mehra, J.(2015).Growth, instability and acreage response function in production of cumin in Rajasthan. The Bioscan, 10(1):359-362 Coppock, J.D.(1962).International Economic Instability. McGraw-Hill, New York, pp 523-525. Cuddy, J.D.A. and Valle, P.A.D.(1978).Measuring the instability of time series data. Oxford Bulletin and Economic Statistics, 40:53-78. Cummings, J.T.(1975).The supply responsiveness of Indian farmers in the post-independence periods-major cereals and cash crops. Indian Journal of Agricultural Economics, 30(1):25-40 Debnath, P., Singh, R., Feroze, S.M. and Sarkar, A.(2015).Study on growth and instability of sesame in north-eastern hill region of India. Economic Affairs, 60(2):193-196 Dhakre, D.S. and Sharma, A.(2009).Growth and instability analysis of ginger production in North-East Region. Agricultural Situation in India, 66(8):463-466. Gujarati, D., Porter, D.and Gunasekar, S.(2012).Basic Econometrics. McGraw Hill, New Delhi. Hazell, P.B.R.(1982).Instability in Indian food grain production.Research Report 30, Washington, D.C., USA: International Food Policy Research Institute. Jain, P.K., Singh, I.P. and Kumar, A.(2005).Risk in output growth of oilseeds in the Rajasthan State: A Policy Perspective. Agricultural Economics Research Review, 18 (Conference No.):115-133 Jhala, M.L.(1979).Farmers response to economic incentive: An analysis of inter-regional groundnut supply response in India. Indian Journal of Agricultural Economics, 34(1):55- 67 Krishna, J. and Rao, M.S.(1967).Dynamics of acreage allocation in U.P.- A study of supply response. Indian Journal of Agricultural Economics, 22(1):37-52 Krishna, R.(1963).Farm supply response in India-Pakistan: A case study of the Punjab Region. Economics Journal, 73(291):477-487 Kumar, N.S, Joseph, B. and Muhammed, J.P.K.(2017).Growth and Instability in Area, Production, and Productivity of Cassava (Manihot esculenta) in Kerala. International Journal of Advance Research, Ideas and Innovations in Technology, 4(1):446-448 Legume Breeders Workshop, IITA lbadan, Nigeria. Ojo, D.K.(2002).Food legume for health and wealth. Lecture Series 4, UNAAB Alumni Association, January 2002 Okoruwa, A.E.(2001).Nutritional value and uses of legumes in Africa. Paper presented at the Paul, R.K.(2014).Forecasting wholesale price of pigeon pea using long memory time-series models. Agricultural Economics Research Review, 27(2): 167-176. Raw Materials Research and Development Council (RMRDC)(2004).Soybeans. A Report. Pp. 1- 99. Sadiq, M.S., Singh, I.P. and Karunakaran, N.(2017).Supply response of cereal crop farmers to price and non-price factors in Rajasthan state of Nigeria. Journal of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development, 3(2):203-210 Sadiq, M.S., Singh, I.P., Yusuf, T.L., Sani, T.P. and Lawal, M.(2018).Sustainable cowpea trade in West Africa Region. Journal of Forestry, Environment and Sustainable Development, 4(1):91-105 Sadiq, M.S., Karunakaran, N. and Singh, I.P.(2019).Dynamics of root and tuber crops acreage allocation and yield adjustment in Nigeria. International Journal of Research- Granthaalayah, 7(2):144-161. Sandeep, M.V., Thakare, S.S. and Ulemale, D.H.(2016).Decomposition analysis and acreage response of pigeon-pea in western Vidarbha. Indian Journal of Agricultural Research, 50(5): 461-465 Stalling, J.L.(1960).Weather indexes. Journal of Farm Economics, 42: 180-186. Sud, L. and Kahlon, A.S.(1969).Estimation of acreage response to price of selected crops in Punjab State. Indian Journal of Agricultural Economics, 34(3):46-49 Umar, S.M., Suhasini, K., Jainuddin, S.M. and Makama, S.A.(2019).Sources of growth and instability in cassava production in Nigeria: An evidence from Hazell’s Decomposition Model. SKUAST Journal of Research, 21(1):86-95