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AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF THE FACTORS DETERMINE UNEMPLOYMENT IN TURKEY

Yıl 2012, Cilt: 26 Sayı: 3-4, 33 - 43, 23.10.2012

Öz

In this study, determinants of unemployment for Turkey has been investigated with the help of Johansen Co-integration Method for the period 2000:Q1-2011Q1. According to findings a co-integration relation has been founded between variables; increases in confidence index of real sector decrease unemployment rate as expected but increases in the number of collective bargaining agreements for private sector have an increasing impact on unemployment. And according to Error Correction Model’s result; the error correction term coefficient (ECt-1) is negative and statistically significant as expected. Eventually approximately 23% deviations from the long-run equilibrium value eliminate in each period. 

Kaynakça

  • Aktar, İ. and Öztürk, L. (2009) “Can Unemployment Be Cured By Economic Growth and Foreign Direct Investment in Turkey?”, International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, (27): 203-211.
  • Amisano, G. and Serati, M. (2002) “What Goes Up Sometimes Stays Up: Shocks and Institutions As Determinants of Unemployment Persistence”, Liuc Papers Serie Economia e Impresa, (111): 1-26.
  • Baccaro, L. and Rei, D. (2005) “Institutional Determinants of Unemployment in OECD Countries: A Time Series Cross-Section Analysis (1960-98)”, Decent Work Research Programme, (160): 1-55.
  • Bakare, A. S. (2011) “The Determinants of Urban Unemployment Crisis in Nigeria: An Econometric Analysis”, Journal of Emerging Trends in Economics and Management Sciences (JETEMS), 2(3): 184-192.
  • Bassaini, A. and Duval, R. (2006) “The Determinants of Unemployment Across OECD Countries: Reassessing The Role of Policies ans Institutions”, OECD Economic Studies, (42): 7-86.
  • Cholifihani, M. (2008), “A Cointegration Analysis of Public Debt Service and GDP in Indonesia”, Journal of Management and Social Sciences, 4(2): 68-81.
  • Dickey, D. and Fuller, W. A. (1979) “Distribution of the Estimates for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root”, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74: 427-431.
  • Downes, A. S. (1998) “An Econometric Analysis of Unemployment in Trinidad and Tobago”, Office of The Chief Economist, Working Paper (381).
  • Ece, D., Hamsici, T., Oral, E. (2005) “Building Up A Real Sector Business Confidence Index For Turkey”, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, Research and Monetary Policy Department.
  • Enders, W. (1995) “Applied Econometric Time Series” First Edition, Wiley New York.
  • Engle, R. F. and Granger, C. W. (1987) “Co-integration and Error Correction Representation, Estimation and Testing”, Econometrica (55) 1987: 251-276.
  • Frenkel, R. and Ros, J. (2006) “Unemployment and The Real Exchange Rate in Latin America”, World Development, 34(4): 631-646.
  • Gatti, D., Rault, C., Vaubourg, A.G. (2010) “Unemployment and Finance: How Do Financial and Labour Market Factors Interact?”, William Davidson Institute Working Paper, (973): 1-34.
  • Herz, B. and Rens, T. V. (2011) “Structural Unemployment”, EFG Macro Perspectives Workshop, 1-44.
  • Johansen, S. and Juselius, K. (1990) “Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration with Application to the Deman for Money”, Oxford Bulletin of Economic and Statistics (52) 1990: 169- 210.
  • Johansen, S. (1995) “Likelihood Basic Inference in Cointegration Vector Autoregressive Models, Oxford University Press, New York.
  • Johansen, S. (1988) “Statistical Analysis of Cointegration Vectors”, Journal of Economic Dynamic and Control (12) 1988: 231-254.
  • Kyei, K. A. and Gyekye, K. B. (2011) “Determinants of Unemployment in Limpopo Province in South Africa: Exploratory Studies”, Journal of Emerging Trends in Economics and Management Sciences (JETEMS),2(1): 54-61.
  • McConnell, C. R. and Brue, S. L. (2005) “Measuring The Economy, Inflation and Unemployment”, AP Macroeconomic Syllabus 2, 1-9.
  • Panday, P. (2003) “An Empirical Analysis of The Determinants of Earning and Employment: Does Trade Protection Matter?”, Journal of Economic Development, 28(1): 35-47.
  • Rafiq, M., Ahmad, I., Ullah, A., and Khan, Z. (2010) “Determinants of Unemployment: A Case Study of Pakistan Economy (1998-2008)”, Abasyn Journal of Social Sciences, 13(1): 17-24.
  • Tatlıdil, E. and Xanthacou, Y. (2002) “Türk İşgücünün Yapısı ve Avrupa Birliği İstihdam Politikaları, Ege Akademik Bakış, 2(2): 1-14.
  • TCMB (2011) “Elektronik Veri Dağıtım Sistemi (EVDS)”, TCMB.
  • TUİK (2011) “Turkey Statistical Institute, Statistical Indicators 2011” http://www.tuik.gov.tr/Start.do (12.08.2011)
  • Tunalı, H. (2010) “The Analysis of Unemployment in Turkey: Some Empirical Evidence Using Co-integration Test”, European Journal of Social Sciences, 18(1): 18-38.

TÜRKİYE’DE İŞSİZLİĞİ BELİRLEYEN FAKTÖRLERİN AMPİRİK BİR ANALİZİ

Yıl 2012, Cilt: 26 Sayı: 3-4, 33 - 43, 23.10.2012

Öz

Bu çalışmada, Türkiye'de işsizliğin belirleyicileri, Johansen eş-
bütünleşme yöntemi yardımıyla, 2000:Q1-2011:Q1 dönemi verileri kullanılarak
araştırılmıştır. Elde edilen bulgulara göre; değişkenler arasında eş-bütünleşme
olduğu belirlenmiştir. Reel kesim güven endeksindeki artışlar beklenildiği
yönde işsizliği azaltırken; özel sektor toplu iş sözleşme sayısındaki artışların
işsizliği artırıcı yönde etki ettiği tespit edilmiştir. Hata düzeltme modelinde, hata
düzeltme teriminin (ECt-1) katsayısı negatif ve istatistiki olarak anlamlı
çıkmıştır. Buna göre, uzun dönem denge değerinden sapmaların her dönem
yaklaşık % 23’ü ortadan kalkmaktadır.

Kaynakça

  • Aktar, İ. and Öztürk, L. (2009) “Can Unemployment Be Cured By Economic Growth and Foreign Direct Investment in Turkey?”, International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, (27): 203-211.
  • Amisano, G. and Serati, M. (2002) “What Goes Up Sometimes Stays Up: Shocks and Institutions As Determinants of Unemployment Persistence”, Liuc Papers Serie Economia e Impresa, (111): 1-26.
  • Baccaro, L. and Rei, D. (2005) “Institutional Determinants of Unemployment in OECD Countries: A Time Series Cross-Section Analysis (1960-98)”, Decent Work Research Programme, (160): 1-55.
  • Bakare, A. S. (2011) “The Determinants of Urban Unemployment Crisis in Nigeria: An Econometric Analysis”, Journal of Emerging Trends in Economics and Management Sciences (JETEMS), 2(3): 184-192.
  • Bassaini, A. and Duval, R. (2006) “The Determinants of Unemployment Across OECD Countries: Reassessing The Role of Policies ans Institutions”, OECD Economic Studies, (42): 7-86.
  • Cholifihani, M. (2008), “A Cointegration Analysis of Public Debt Service and GDP in Indonesia”, Journal of Management and Social Sciences, 4(2): 68-81.
  • Dickey, D. and Fuller, W. A. (1979) “Distribution of the Estimates for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root”, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74: 427-431.
  • Downes, A. S. (1998) “An Econometric Analysis of Unemployment in Trinidad and Tobago”, Office of The Chief Economist, Working Paper (381).
  • Ece, D., Hamsici, T., Oral, E. (2005) “Building Up A Real Sector Business Confidence Index For Turkey”, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, Research and Monetary Policy Department.
  • Enders, W. (1995) “Applied Econometric Time Series” First Edition, Wiley New York.
  • Engle, R. F. and Granger, C. W. (1987) “Co-integration and Error Correction Representation, Estimation and Testing”, Econometrica (55) 1987: 251-276.
  • Frenkel, R. and Ros, J. (2006) “Unemployment and The Real Exchange Rate in Latin America”, World Development, 34(4): 631-646.
  • Gatti, D., Rault, C., Vaubourg, A.G. (2010) “Unemployment and Finance: How Do Financial and Labour Market Factors Interact?”, William Davidson Institute Working Paper, (973): 1-34.
  • Herz, B. and Rens, T. V. (2011) “Structural Unemployment”, EFG Macro Perspectives Workshop, 1-44.
  • Johansen, S. and Juselius, K. (1990) “Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration with Application to the Deman for Money”, Oxford Bulletin of Economic and Statistics (52) 1990: 169- 210.
  • Johansen, S. (1995) “Likelihood Basic Inference in Cointegration Vector Autoregressive Models, Oxford University Press, New York.
  • Johansen, S. (1988) “Statistical Analysis of Cointegration Vectors”, Journal of Economic Dynamic and Control (12) 1988: 231-254.
  • Kyei, K. A. and Gyekye, K. B. (2011) “Determinants of Unemployment in Limpopo Province in South Africa: Exploratory Studies”, Journal of Emerging Trends in Economics and Management Sciences (JETEMS),2(1): 54-61.
  • McConnell, C. R. and Brue, S. L. (2005) “Measuring The Economy, Inflation and Unemployment”, AP Macroeconomic Syllabus 2, 1-9.
  • Panday, P. (2003) “An Empirical Analysis of The Determinants of Earning and Employment: Does Trade Protection Matter?”, Journal of Economic Development, 28(1): 35-47.
  • Rafiq, M., Ahmad, I., Ullah, A., and Khan, Z. (2010) “Determinants of Unemployment: A Case Study of Pakistan Economy (1998-2008)”, Abasyn Journal of Social Sciences, 13(1): 17-24.
  • Tatlıdil, E. and Xanthacou, Y. (2002) “Türk İşgücünün Yapısı ve Avrupa Birliği İstihdam Politikaları, Ege Akademik Bakış, 2(2): 1-14.
  • TCMB (2011) “Elektronik Veri Dağıtım Sistemi (EVDS)”, TCMB.
  • TUİK (2011) “Turkey Statistical Institute, Statistical Indicators 2011” http://www.tuik.gov.tr/Start.do (12.08.2011)
  • Tunalı, H. (2010) “The Analysis of Unemployment in Turkey: Some Empirical Evidence Using Co-integration Test”, European Journal of Social Sciences, 18(1): 18-38.
Toplam 25 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Osman Peker

Mehmet Bölükbaş

Yayımlanma Tarihi 23 Ekim 2012
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2012 Cilt: 26 Sayı: 3-4

Kaynak Göster

APA Peker, O., & Bölükbaş, M. (2012). AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF THE FACTORS DETERMINE UNEMPLOYMENT IN TURKEY. Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 26(3-4), 33-43.

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