AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF THE FACTORS DETERMINE UNEMPLOYMENT IN TURKEY

Yıl 2012, Cilt: 26 Sayı: 3-4, 33 - 43, 23.10.2012

Osman Peker , Mehmet Bölükbaş

Öz

In this study, determinants of unemployment for Turkey has been investigated with the help of Johansen Co-integration Method for the period 2000:Q1-2011Q1. According to findings a co-integration relation has been founded between variables; increases in confidence index of real sector decrease unemployment rate as expected but increases in the number of collective bargaining agreements for private sector have an increasing impact on unemployment. And according to Error Correction Model’s result; the error correction term coefficient (EC_t-1) is negative and statistically significant as expected. Eventually approximately 23% deviations from the long-run equilibrium value eliminate in each period. 

Anahtar Kelimeler

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TÜRKİYE’DE İŞSİZLİĞİ BELİRLEYEN FAKTÖRLERİN AMPİRİK BİR ANALİZİ

Öz

Bu çalışmada, Türkiye'de işsizliğin belirleyicileri, Johansen eş-
bütünleşme yöntemi yardımıyla, 2000:Q1-2011:Q1 dönemi verileri kullanılarak
araştırılmıştır. Elde edilen bulgulara göre; değişkenler arasında eş-bütünleşme
olduğu belirlenmiştir. Reel kesim güven endeksindeki artışlar beklenildiği
yönde işsizliği azaltırken; özel sektor toplu iş sözleşme sayısındaki artışların
işsizliği artırıcı yönde etki ettiği tespit edilmiştir. Hata düzeltme modelinde, hata
düzeltme teriminin (ECt-1) katsayısı negatif ve istatistiki olarak anlamlı
çıkmıştır. Buna göre, uzun dönem denge değerinden sapmaların her dönem
yaklaşık % 23’ü ortadan kalkmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

İşsizliğin Belirleyicileri, Johansen Eş-bütünleşme Analizi, Türkiye

Kaynakça

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