Research Article
BibTex RIS Cite

Yem Fiyatlarındaki Değişim Et Fiyatlarını Nasıl Etkiler? Türkiye Örneği

Year 2023, Volume: 54 Issue: 2, 68 - 74, 23.05.2023
https://doi.org/10.5152/AUAF.2023.22054

Abstract

Bu çalışma, et ve et ürünleri fiyatları ile yem fiyatları arasındaki ilişkiyi anlamayı amaçlamaktadır. Bu amaçla değişkenler arasındaki nedensellik ve uzun dönem ilişkileri Granger nedensellik testi ve ARDL modeli yaklaşımları kullanılarak incelenmiştir. Çalışmanın verileri, Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu tarafından paylaşılan Et Tüketici Fiyat Endeksi (MCPI) ve Yem Fiyat Endeksi'nden (FPI) oluşturulmuştur. Veri seti, Ocak 2016 ile Ekim 2021 arasındaki dönemi kapsayan 70 gözlemden oluşmaktadır. Granger nedensellik testi sonuçları, FPI'nin MCPI'nin Granger nedeni olduğunu göstermektedir. Otoregresif Dağıtılmış Gecikme (ARDL) modelinin uzun dönemli tahmin sonuçlarına göre, FPI'deki %1'lik bir artış MCPI'yi %0,97 artırmaktadır. Yaklaşık 4 ayda kısa dönemdeki sapmaların düzeleceği ve sistemin uzun dönem dengesine yakınsayacağı tahmin edilmektedir. Et ve et ürünleri fiyatlarının yem fiyatlarından önemli ölçüde etkilendiğini gösteren çalışmanın sonuçları dikkate alındığında, yem bitkileri ve yem sanayine yönelik teşviklerin et fiyatlarını olumlu yönde etkileme potansiyeline sahip olduğu ifade edilebilir.

References

  • Akın, A. C., Arıkan, M. S., Çevrimli, M. B., & Tekindal, M. A. (2020). Assessment of the effect of beef and mutton meat prices on chicken meat prices in Turkey using different regression models and the decision tree algorithm. Kafkas Universitesi Veteriner Fakultesi Dergisi, 26(1), 47–52. [CrossRef]
  • Albez, A. (2018). Red meat sector profitability and cost analysis in Erzurum scale. Atatürk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 22(Special Issue 3), 2969–2986 (in Turkish with an abstract in English).
  • Arıkan, M. S., Çevrimli, M. B., Polat, M., Mat, B., Akın, A. C., Özel, Z., & Tekindal, M. A. (2022). Analyzing the factors affecting the price of broiler chicken in Turkey using the boosting regression method. Brazilian Journal of Poultry Science, 24(4). [CrossRef]
  • Bölük, G., & Mert, M. (2015). The renewable energy, growth and environmental Kuznets curve in Turkey: An ARDL approach. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 52, 587–595. [CrossRef] Çevrimli, M. B., Akın, A. C., Mat, B., Tekindal, M. A., & Arıkan, M. S. (2019). Cointegration analysis of broiler meat and broiler feed prices in Turkey. Eurasian Journal of Veterinary Sciences, 35(4), 210–216. [CrossRef]
  • Çoban, A., Çoban, O., & Coşkun, Ö. (2019). The effects on the red meats prices of feed price: The case of Turkey. In P. S. Sandhu, L. M. Cordoso & D. C. Bueno (Eds.), 16th ITALY International Conference on Economics, Education, Humanities and Social Sciences Studies (E2HS3-19) (pp. 14–17). Milan, Italy.
  • Erdoğdu, H., & Çiçek, H. (2017). Modelling beef consumption in Turkey: The ARDL/bounds test approach. Turkish Journal of Veterinary and Animal Sciences, 41(2), 255–264. [CrossRef] Granger, C. W. J. (1969). Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods. Econometrica, 37(3), 424–438. [CrossRef]
  • Granger, C. W. J. (1980). Testing for causality. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2, 329–352. [CrossRef]
  • Işık, S., & Özbuğday, F. C. (2021). The impact of agricultural input costs on food prices in Turkey: A case study. Agricultural Economics, 67(3), 101–110. [CrossRef]
  • Kripfganz, S., & Schneider, D. C. (2018). ardl: Estimating autoregressive distributed lag and equilibrium correction models. In Proceedings of the 2018 London Stata conference (Vol. 9). London, UK.
  • Mat, B., Arıkan, M. S., Çevrimli, M. B., Akın, A. C., & Tekindal, M. A. (2020). Causality analysis of the factors affecting the consumer price of veal: The case of Turkey. Sustainability, 12(15), 6257. [CrossRef]
  • Mert, M., & Çağlar, A. E. (2019). Eviews ve Gauss uygulamalı zaman serileri analizi. Detay Yayıncılık. Musunuru, N. M. (2017). Causal relationships between grain, meat prices and exchange rates. International Journal of Food and Agricultural Economics (IJFAEC), 5(4), 1–10. [CrossRef]
  • Narayan, P. K. (2004). Fiji's tourism demand: The ARDL approach to cointegration. Tourism Economics, 10(2), 193–206. [CrossRef]
  • Narayan, P. K. (2005). The saving and investment nexus for China: Evidence from cointegration tests. Applied Economics, 37(17), 1979–1990. [CrossRef]
  • Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development. (2021). Meat consumption. https://data.oecd.org/agroutput/meat-consumption.htm.
  • Özen, D. (2019). Modeling and forecasting meat consumption per capita in Turkey. Erciyes Üniversitesi Veteriner Fakültesi Dergisi, 16(2), 122–129. [CrossRef]
  • Özer, O. O. (2013). Modeling the relationship between the beef producer price and the oil prices in Turkey. Journal of Food, Agriculture and Environment, 11(3–4), 769–772.
  • Özkan, U., & Şahin Demirbağ, N. (2016). Status quo of quality roughage resources in Turkey. Türkiye Bilimsel Derlemeler Dergisi, 9(1), 23–27.
  • Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289–326. [CrossRef]
  • Pozo, V. F., & Schroeder, T. C. (2012). Price and volatility spillover between livestock and related commodity markets. Selected Paper prepared for presentation at the Agricultural & Applied Economics Association’s 2012 AAEA Annual Meeting, Seattle, WA.
  • Tandoğan, M., & Çiçek, H. (2016). Technical performance and cost analysis of broiler production in Turkey. Brazilian Journal of Poultry Science, 18(1), 169–174. [CrossRef]
  • Türkiye Yem Sanayicileri Birliği (TÜRKİYEM-BİR). (2019). Karma yem Sanayii raporu. Poyraz Ofset Matbaacılık (in Turkish). TURKSTAT. (2022). Inflation and price. https://data.tuik.gov.tr/Kategori/GetKategori?p=enflasyon-ve-fiyat-106&dil=2
  • Yalçınkaya, S., & Aktaş, M. A. (2019). Yem üzerindeki Kdv Oran İndirimlerinin et Ve Süt Fiyatlarina etkisi. Öneri Dergisi, 14(51), 38–60 (in Turkish with an abstract in English).

How Does the Change in Feed Prices Affect Meat Prices? A Case Study of Turkey

Year 2023, Volume: 54 Issue: 2, 68 - 74, 23.05.2023
https://doi.org/10.5152/AUAF.2023.22054

Abstract

This study aims to understand the relationship between meat and meat product prices and feed prices. For this purpose, causality and long-run relationship between variables are examined using the Granger causality test and autoregressive distributed lag model approaches. The data of the study is formed from the Meat Consumer Price Index and Feed Price Index shared by the Turkish Statistical Institute. The data set is composed of 70 observations covering the period from January 2016 to October 2021. The results of the Granger causality test show that the Feed Price Index is the Granger cause of the Meat Consumer Price Index. According to the long-run estimation results of the autoregressive distributed lag model, a 1% increase in the Feed Price Index increases the Meat Consumer Price Index by 0.97%. It is estimated that the deviations from the long-run equilibrium will be adjusted in approximately 4 months. Considering the results of the study showing that the prices of meat and meat products are significantly affected by feed prices, it can be concluded that the subsidies to the feed crops and feed industry has the potential to impact meat prices positively

References

  • Akın, A. C., Arıkan, M. S., Çevrimli, M. B., & Tekindal, M. A. (2020). Assessment of the effect of beef and mutton meat prices on chicken meat prices in Turkey using different regression models and the decision tree algorithm. Kafkas Universitesi Veteriner Fakultesi Dergisi, 26(1), 47–52. [CrossRef]
  • Albez, A. (2018). Red meat sector profitability and cost analysis in Erzurum scale. Atatürk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 22(Special Issue 3), 2969–2986 (in Turkish with an abstract in English).
  • Arıkan, M. S., Çevrimli, M. B., Polat, M., Mat, B., Akın, A. C., Özel, Z., & Tekindal, M. A. (2022). Analyzing the factors affecting the price of broiler chicken in Turkey using the boosting regression method. Brazilian Journal of Poultry Science, 24(4). [CrossRef]
  • Bölük, G., & Mert, M. (2015). The renewable energy, growth and environmental Kuznets curve in Turkey: An ARDL approach. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 52, 587–595. [CrossRef] Çevrimli, M. B., Akın, A. C., Mat, B., Tekindal, M. A., & Arıkan, M. S. (2019). Cointegration analysis of broiler meat and broiler feed prices in Turkey. Eurasian Journal of Veterinary Sciences, 35(4), 210–216. [CrossRef]
  • Çoban, A., Çoban, O., & Coşkun, Ö. (2019). The effects on the red meats prices of feed price: The case of Turkey. In P. S. Sandhu, L. M. Cordoso & D. C. Bueno (Eds.), 16th ITALY International Conference on Economics, Education, Humanities and Social Sciences Studies (E2HS3-19) (pp. 14–17). Milan, Italy.
  • Erdoğdu, H., & Çiçek, H. (2017). Modelling beef consumption in Turkey: The ARDL/bounds test approach. Turkish Journal of Veterinary and Animal Sciences, 41(2), 255–264. [CrossRef] Granger, C. W. J. (1969). Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods. Econometrica, 37(3), 424–438. [CrossRef]
  • Granger, C. W. J. (1980). Testing for causality. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2, 329–352. [CrossRef]
  • Işık, S., & Özbuğday, F. C. (2021). The impact of agricultural input costs on food prices in Turkey: A case study. Agricultural Economics, 67(3), 101–110. [CrossRef]
  • Kripfganz, S., & Schneider, D. C. (2018). ardl: Estimating autoregressive distributed lag and equilibrium correction models. In Proceedings of the 2018 London Stata conference (Vol. 9). London, UK.
  • Mat, B., Arıkan, M. S., Çevrimli, M. B., Akın, A. C., & Tekindal, M. A. (2020). Causality analysis of the factors affecting the consumer price of veal: The case of Turkey. Sustainability, 12(15), 6257. [CrossRef]
  • Mert, M., & Çağlar, A. E. (2019). Eviews ve Gauss uygulamalı zaman serileri analizi. Detay Yayıncılık. Musunuru, N. M. (2017). Causal relationships between grain, meat prices and exchange rates. International Journal of Food and Agricultural Economics (IJFAEC), 5(4), 1–10. [CrossRef]
  • Narayan, P. K. (2004). Fiji's tourism demand: The ARDL approach to cointegration. Tourism Economics, 10(2), 193–206. [CrossRef]
  • Narayan, P. K. (2005). The saving and investment nexus for China: Evidence from cointegration tests. Applied Economics, 37(17), 1979–1990. [CrossRef]
  • Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development. (2021). Meat consumption. https://data.oecd.org/agroutput/meat-consumption.htm.
  • Özen, D. (2019). Modeling and forecasting meat consumption per capita in Turkey. Erciyes Üniversitesi Veteriner Fakültesi Dergisi, 16(2), 122–129. [CrossRef]
  • Özer, O. O. (2013). Modeling the relationship between the beef producer price and the oil prices in Turkey. Journal of Food, Agriculture and Environment, 11(3–4), 769–772.
  • Özkan, U., & Şahin Demirbağ, N. (2016). Status quo of quality roughage resources in Turkey. Türkiye Bilimsel Derlemeler Dergisi, 9(1), 23–27.
  • Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289–326. [CrossRef]
  • Pozo, V. F., & Schroeder, T. C. (2012). Price and volatility spillover between livestock and related commodity markets. Selected Paper prepared for presentation at the Agricultural & Applied Economics Association’s 2012 AAEA Annual Meeting, Seattle, WA.
  • Tandoğan, M., & Çiçek, H. (2016). Technical performance and cost analysis of broiler production in Turkey. Brazilian Journal of Poultry Science, 18(1), 169–174. [CrossRef]
  • Türkiye Yem Sanayicileri Birliği (TÜRKİYEM-BİR). (2019). Karma yem Sanayii raporu. Poyraz Ofset Matbaacılık (in Turkish). TURKSTAT. (2022). Inflation and price. https://data.tuik.gov.tr/Kategori/GetKategori?p=enflasyon-ve-fiyat-106&dil=2
  • Yalçınkaya, S., & Aktaş, M. A. (2019). Yem üzerindeki Kdv Oran İndirimlerinin et Ve Süt Fiyatlarina etkisi. Öneri Dergisi, 14(51), 38–60 (in Turkish with an abstract in English).
There are 22 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Journal Section ARAŞTIRMALAR
Authors

Veli Anıl Çakan 0000-0002-5934-2203

Tolga Tipi 0000-0002-1090-3639

Publication Date May 23, 2023
Published in Issue Year 2023 Volume: 54 Issue: 2

Cite

APA Çakan, V. A., & Tipi, T. (2023). How Does the Change in Feed Prices Affect Meat Prices? A Case Study of Turkey. Atatürk Üniversitesi Ziraat Fakültesi Dergisi, 54(2), 68-74. https://doi.org/10.5152/AUAF.2023.22054
AMA Çakan VA, Tipi T. How Does the Change in Feed Prices Affect Meat Prices? A Case Study of Turkey. Atatürk Üniversitesi Ziraat Fakültesi Dergisi. May 2023;54(2):68-74. doi:10.5152/AUAF.2023.22054
Chicago Çakan, Veli Anıl, and Tolga Tipi. “How Does the Change in Feed Prices Affect Meat Prices? A Case Study of Turkey”. Atatürk Üniversitesi Ziraat Fakültesi Dergisi 54, no. 2 (May 2023): 68-74. https://doi.org/10.5152/AUAF.2023.22054.
EndNote Çakan VA, Tipi T (May 1, 2023) How Does the Change in Feed Prices Affect Meat Prices? A Case Study of Turkey. Atatürk Üniversitesi Ziraat Fakültesi Dergisi 54 2 68–74.
IEEE V. A. Çakan and T. Tipi, “How Does the Change in Feed Prices Affect Meat Prices? A Case Study of Turkey”, Atatürk Üniversitesi Ziraat Fakültesi Dergisi, vol. 54, no. 2, pp. 68–74, 2023, doi: 10.5152/AUAF.2023.22054.
ISNAD Çakan, Veli Anıl - Tipi, Tolga. “How Does the Change in Feed Prices Affect Meat Prices? A Case Study of Turkey”. Atatürk Üniversitesi Ziraat Fakültesi Dergisi 54/2 (May 2023), 68-74. https://doi.org/10.5152/AUAF.2023.22054.
JAMA Çakan VA, Tipi T. How Does the Change in Feed Prices Affect Meat Prices? A Case Study of Turkey. Atatürk Üniversitesi Ziraat Fakültesi Dergisi. 2023;54:68–74.
MLA Çakan, Veli Anıl and Tolga Tipi. “How Does the Change in Feed Prices Affect Meat Prices? A Case Study of Turkey”. Atatürk Üniversitesi Ziraat Fakültesi Dergisi, vol. 54, no. 2, 2023, pp. 68-74, doi:10.5152/AUAF.2023.22054.
Vancouver Çakan VA, Tipi T. How Does the Change in Feed Prices Affect Meat Prices? A Case Study of Turkey. Atatürk Üniversitesi Ziraat Fakültesi Dergisi. 2023;54(2):68-74.

Articles published in this journal are published under the Creative Commons International License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/). This allows the work to be copied and distributed in any medium or format provided that the original article is appropriately cited. However, the articles work cannot be used for commercial purposes.

https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/