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A study on Earthquake Statistics and the Forecasting for the Intermediate-Term Locations of Possible Strong Earthquakes for the Western Anatolian Region of Turkey

Year 2014, Volume: 4 Issue: 1, 75 - 93, 11.03.2014
https://doi.org/10.17714/gufbed.2014.04.006

Abstract

In this study, an assessment on the earthquake statistics and intermediate-term forecasting for the location of future earthquakes for the Western Anatolian region of Turkey were made. For this purpose, a statistical relationship was developed between the seismotectonic b-value and fractal dimension Dc-value for the Western Anatolian earthquakes. In addition, a composite forecast map by combining the maps of Pattern informatics and Relative intensity is created for the forecasting the locations of possible strong earthquakes in the Western Anatolian region. This forecast is based on analyzing the space-time distributions of the past earthquakes to find possible locations where strong earthquakes are expected to occur. For the calculations, earthquake catalogue is taken from Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute. This catalogue is homogeneous for duration magnitude, MD and consists of 71914 events with magnitudes between 1.0 and 6.7 in the period between January 1, 1970 and January 1, 2013.
The first aim of this study is to investigate the nature of seismicity which has a fractal structure in time, space, and magnitude distributions, as quantified by the fractal dimension Dc-value and seismotectonic parameter b-value for the Western Anatolia. In order to elaborate the study, the Western Anatolian region was divided into 16 different seismogenic sub-regions in order to make a comprehensive study. In order to estimate more up-to-date and more reliable statistical correlation between two seismotectonic parameters, orthogonal regression is used. Thus, the relationship of Dc=3.07-0.53*b is computed with a strong negative correlation (r = -0.95) between b-value and Dc-value for the Western Anatolia earthquake distributions.
The second aim of this study is to create a forecast map based on the earthquake intensities and pattern informatics for the Western Anatolia. The composite forecast method is used in order to generate a potential map for possible strong earthquakes in the Western Anatolia. The events of magnitude equal to or larger than the completeness magnitude Mc=3.5 with depths shallower than 40 km dated from 1970 to 2013 are selected for the analyses. For the regional imaging of the forecasting map, it is considered a regional grid of points with a grid of 0.04° by 0.04° and it is tried to forecast the locations of earthquakes with MD³5.0. The combined forecasting map is prepared in order to detect the location of possible strong earthquakes in the Western Anatolia in the forecasting time period between January 1, 2013 and January 1, 2023. Consequently, a few forecasted areas in the Western Anatolia were detected: in the vicinity Simav and Soma grabens, junction of Gediz, Kücük Menderes and Büyük Menderes grabens, including the regions of Acıgöl, Dinar, Çivril faults and Sandıklı-Dombayova grabens, around Marmara, Köyceğiz, Fethiye and Aliağa-Dumlupınar faults.

References

  • Aki, K., 1965, Maximum likelihood estimate of b in the formula log N = a – bM and its confidence limits, Bulletin Earthquake Research Institute Tokyo University, 43, 237-2
  • Aki, K., 1981, Earthquake prediction, American Geophysical Union, vol 4. Washington, pp 566-5
  • Bayrak, Y. ve Öztürk, S., 2004, Spatial and temporal variations of the aftershock sequences of the 1999 İzmit and Düzce earthquake, Earth Planets Space, 56, 9339
  • Bayrak, Y., Öztürk, S., Çınar, H., Kalafat, D., Tsapanos, T.M., Koravos, G.Ch. ve Leventakis, G.A., 2009, Estimating earthquake hazard parameters from instrumental data for different regions in and around Turkey, Engineering Geology, 10, 200-210.
  • Bozkurt, E., 2001, Neotectonics of Turkey – a synthesis, Geodinamica Acta, 14, 3-30.
  • Holliday, J.R., Rundle, J.B., Tiampo, K.F. ve Turcotte, D.L., 2006, Using earthquake intensities to forecast earthquake occurrence times, Nonelinear Processes in Geophysics, 13, 585-593.
  • Holliday, J.R., Chen, C.-C., Tiampo, K.F., Rundle, J.B.,, Turcotte, D.L. ve Donnellan, A., 2007, A RELM earthquake forecast based on Pattern Infformatics, Seismological Research. Letters, 78(1), 87Keilis-Borok, V.I. ve Kossobokov, V.G., 1990, Premonitory activation of earthquake flow: Algorithm M8, Physics of Earth and Planetary Interiors, 61, 73-83.
  • Keilis-Borok, V.I. ve Soloviev, A.A., eds., 2003, Nonelinear dynamics of the lithosphere and earthquake prediction. Springer-Verlag, New York.
  • Mandelbrot, B.B., 1982. The fractal Geometry of Nature, Freeman Press, San Francisco. Mckenzie, D.,P., 1978, Active tectonics of the Alpine-Himalayan belt: the Aegean Sea and surrounding regions, Geophysical Journal of the Royal Astronomical Society, 55, 217-254.
  • Nanjo, K.Z., Holliday, J.R., Chen, C.-C., Rundle, J.B. ve Turcotte, D.L., 2006a, Application of a modified pattern informatics method to forecasting the locations of future large earthquakes in the central Japan, Tectonophysics, 424, 3513
  • Nanjo, K.Z., Rundle, J.B., Holliday, J.R. ve Turcotte, D.L., 2006b, Pattern informatics and its application for optimal forecasting of large earthquakes in Japan, Pure and Applied Geophysics, 163, 2417-2432.
  • Oral, M.,B., Reilinger, R.,E., Toksöz, M.,N., Kong, R.,W., Barka, A.,A., Kınık, I. ve Lenk, O., 1995, Global positioning system offersevidence of plate motions in eastern Mediterranean, EOS, Transactions American Geophysical Union , 76, 9.
  • Sciences Research Journal, 16 (2), 103 Polat, O., Gok, E.ve Yılmaz, D., 2008, Earthquake hazard of the Aegean extension region (West Turkey). Turkish Journal of Earth Sciences, 17, 593-614.
  • Roy, S., Ghosh, U., Hazra, S. ve Kayal, J.R., 2011, Fractal dimension and b-value mapping in the Andaman-Sumatra subduction zone, Natural Hazards, 57, 27–
  • Rundle, J.B., Tiampo, K.F., Klein, W. ve Martins, J.S.S., 2002, Self-organization in leaky threshold systems: The influence of near-mean field dynamics and its implications for earthquakes, neurobiology and forecasting, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United states of America, 99, 25142521, Supplement 1.
  • Rundle, J.B., Turcotte, D.L., Scherbakov R., Klein, W. ve Sammis, C., 2003, Statistical physics approach to understanding the multiscale dynamics of earthquake fault systems, Review of Geophysics, 41(4), 10
  • Sykes, L.R. ve Jaumè, S.C., 1990, Seismic activity on neighboring faults as a longterm precursors to large earthquakes in the san Francisco area, Nature, 348, 595-599. Şaroğlu, F., Emre ,O. ve Kuşcu, I., 1992, Active fault map of Turkey, General Directorate of Mineral Research and Exploration, Ankara, Turkey.
  • Tiampo, K.F., Rundle., J.B., McGinnis, S. ve Klein, W., 2002, Pattern dynamics and forecast methods in seismically active regions, Pure and Applied Geophysics, 159, 2429-2467.
  • Wiemer, S. ve Wyss, M., 2000, Minimum magnitude of completeness in earthquake catalogs: Examples from Alaska, the Western United States, and Japan, Bulletin. Seismological Society of America, 90(4), 859-869.

Türkiye’nin Batı Anadolu Bölgesi için Deprem İstatistiği ve Olası Güçlü Depremlerin Orta Vadede Bölgesel Olarak Tahmini Üzerine Bir Çalışma

Year 2014, Volume: 4 Issue: 1, 75 - 93, 11.03.2014
https://doi.org/10.17714/gufbed.2014.04.006

Abstract

Bu çalışmada, Türkiye'nin Batı Anadolu bölgesi için deprem istatistiği ve depremlerin orta vadede bölgesel olarak tahmini üzerine bir değerlendirme yapılmıştır. Bu amaçla, Batı Anadolu depremleri için sismotektonik b-değeri ile fraktal boyut Dc-değeri arasında istatistiksel bir ilişki geliştirilmiştir. Ayrıca, oluşum bilgisi ve göreceli yoğunluk haritalarının birleştirilmesi ile Batı Anadolu bölgesindeki olası güçlü depremlerin bölgesel olarak tahmini için birleşik tahmin haritası oluşturulmuştur. Bu tahmin, güçlü deprem oluşumlarının beklendiği olası bölgeleri bulmak için geçmiş depremlerin uzay-zaman dağılımlarının analizine dayanır. Hesaplamalar için, deprem kataloğu Kandilli Rasathanesi ve Deprem Araştırma Enstitüsü'nden alınmıştır. Bu katalog, süre magnitüdü MD için homojendir ve 1 Ocak 1970 ile 1 Ocak 2013 yılları arasında magnitüdü 1.0 ile 6.7 arasında değişen 71914 depremi içermektedir.
Bu çalışmanın ilk amacı, Batı Anadolu için fraktal boyut Dc-değeri ve sismotektonik parametre b-değeri ile ölçülendirilen zaman, uzay ve magnitüd dağılımlarındaki fraktal bir yapıya sahip olan depremselliğin doğasını araştırmaktır. Çalışmayı detaylandırmak için, Batı Anadolu bölgesi 16 farklı sismojenik alt bölgeye ayrılmıştır. İki sismotektonik parametre arasında daha güncel ve daha güvenilir bir istatistiksel ilişki hesaplayabilmek için, ortogonal regresyon kullanılmıştır. Sonuçta, Batı Anadolu bölgesi deprem dağılımları için b-değeri ile Dc-değeri arasında güçlü bir negatif ilişkiye (r = -0.95) sahip Dc=3.07-0.53*b ilişkisi hesaplanmıştır.
Bu çalışmanın ikinci amacı, Batı Anadolu için deprem yoğunluğuna ve oluşum bilgilerine dayalı bir tahmin haritası oluşturmaktır. Batı Anadolu'daki olası güçlü depremler için potansiyel bir harita oluşturabilmek için birleşik tahmin yöntemi kullanılmıştır. Analiz için, 1970-2013 yılları arasında 40 km'den daha sığ, tamamlılık magnitüdü Mc=3.5'e eşit veya daha büyük magnitüdlü olaylar seçilmiştir. Tahmin haritasının bölgesel görünümü için, 0.04° x 0.04°'lik bir bölgesel grid aralığı kullanılmış ve MD³5.0 olan depremler bölgesel olarak tahmin edilmeye çalışılmıştır. 1 Ocak 2013 ile 1 Ocak 2023 yılları arasında Batı Anadolu'daki olası güçlü depremlerin bölgesel olarak tahmin edilebilmesi için birleşik tahmin haritası hazırlanmıştır. Sonuç olarak, Batı Anadolu'da bazı tahmin bölgeleri belirlenmiştir: Simav ve Soma grabenleri civarı, Gediz, Küçük Menderes ve Büyük Menderes grabenlerinin kesişimi, Acıgöl, Dinar, Çivril fayları ve Sandıklı-Domboyova grabenlerini içeren bölgeler, Marmara, Köyceğiz, Fethiye ve Aliağa-Dumlupınar fayları civarı.

References

  • Aki, K., 1965, Maximum likelihood estimate of b in the formula log N = a – bM and its confidence limits, Bulletin Earthquake Research Institute Tokyo University, 43, 237-2
  • Aki, K., 1981, Earthquake prediction, American Geophysical Union, vol 4. Washington, pp 566-5
  • Bayrak, Y. ve Öztürk, S., 2004, Spatial and temporal variations of the aftershock sequences of the 1999 İzmit and Düzce earthquake, Earth Planets Space, 56, 9339
  • Bayrak, Y., Öztürk, S., Çınar, H., Kalafat, D., Tsapanos, T.M., Koravos, G.Ch. ve Leventakis, G.A., 2009, Estimating earthquake hazard parameters from instrumental data for different regions in and around Turkey, Engineering Geology, 10, 200-210.
  • Bozkurt, E., 2001, Neotectonics of Turkey – a synthesis, Geodinamica Acta, 14, 3-30.
  • Holliday, J.R., Rundle, J.B., Tiampo, K.F. ve Turcotte, D.L., 2006, Using earthquake intensities to forecast earthquake occurrence times, Nonelinear Processes in Geophysics, 13, 585-593.
  • Holliday, J.R., Chen, C.-C., Tiampo, K.F., Rundle, J.B.,, Turcotte, D.L. ve Donnellan, A., 2007, A RELM earthquake forecast based on Pattern Infformatics, Seismological Research. Letters, 78(1), 87Keilis-Borok, V.I. ve Kossobokov, V.G., 1990, Premonitory activation of earthquake flow: Algorithm M8, Physics of Earth and Planetary Interiors, 61, 73-83.
  • Keilis-Borok, V.I. ve Soloviev, A.A., eds., 2003, Nonelinear dynamics of the lithosphere and earthquake prediction. Springer-Verlag, New York.
  • Mandelbrot, B.B., 1982. The fractal Geometry of Nature, Freeman Press, San Francisco. Mckenzie, D.,P., 1978, Active tectonics of the Alpine-Himalayan belt: the Aegean Sea and surrounding regions, Geophysical Journal of the Royal Astronomical Society, 55, 217-254.
  • Nanjo, K.Z., Holliday, J.R., Chen, C.-C., Rundle, J.B. ve Turcotte, D.L., 2006a, Application of a modified pattern informatics method to forecasting the locations of future large earthquakes in the central Japan, Tectonophysics, 424, 3513
  • Nanjo, K.Z., Rundle, J.B., Holliday, J.R. ve Turcotte, D.L., 2006b, Pattern informatics and its application for optimal forecasting of large earthquakes in Japan, Pure and Applied Geophysics, 163, 2417-2432.
  • Oral, M.,B., Reilinger, R.,E., Toksöz, M.,N., Kong, R.,W., Barka, A.,A., Kınık, I. ve Lenk, O., 1995, Global positioning system offersevidence of plate motions in eastern Mediterranean, EOS, Transactions American Geophysical Union , 76, 9.
  • Sciences Research Journal, 16 (2), 103 Polat, O., Gok, E.ve Yılmaz, D., 2008, Earthquake hazard of the Aegean extension region (West Turkey). Turkish Journal of Earth Sciences, 17, 593-614.
  • Roy, S., Ghosh, U., Hazra, S. ve Kayal, J.R., 2011, Fractal dimension and b-value mapping in the Andaman-Sumatra subduction zone, Natural Hazards, 57, 27–
  • Rundle, J.B., Tiampo, K.F., Klein, W. ve Martins, J.S.S., 2002, Self-organization in leaky threshold systems: The influence of near-mean field dynamics and its implications for earthquakes, neurobiology and forecasting, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United states of America, 99, 25142521, Supplement 1.
  • Rundle, J.B., Turcotte, D.L., Scherbakov R., Klein, W. ve Sammis, C., 2003, Statistical physics approach to understanding the multiscale dynamics of earthquake fault systems, Review of Geophysics, 41(4), 10
  • Sykes, L.R. ve Jaumè, S.C., 1990, Seismic activity on neighboring faults as a longterm precursors to large earthquakes in the san Francisco area, Nature, 348, 595-599. Şaroğlu, F., Emre ,O. ve Kuşcu, I., 1992, Active fault map of Turkey, General Directorate of Mineral Research and Exploration, Ankara, Turkey.
  • Tiampo, K.F., Rundle., J.B., McGinnis, S. ve Klein, W., 2002, Pattern dynamics and forecast methods in seismically active regions, Pure and Applied Geophysics, 159, 2429-2467.
  • Wiemer, S. ve Wyss, M., 2000, Minimum magnitude of completeness in earthquake catalogs: Examples from Alaska, the Western United States, and Japan, Bulletin. Seismological Society of America, 90(4), 859-869.
There are 19 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Serkan Öztürk This is me

Publication Date March 11, 2014
Submission Date March 11, 2014
Published in Issue Year 2014 Volume: 4 Issue: 1

Cite

APA Öztürk, S. (2014). Türkiye’nin Batı Anadolu Bölgesi için Deprem İstatistiği ve Olası Güçlü Depremlerin Orta Vadede Bölgesel Olarak Tahmini Üzerine Bir Çalışma. Gümüşhane Üniversitesi Fen Bilimleri Dergisi, 4(1), 75-93. https://doi.org/10.17714/gufbed.2014.04.006