Pamuk üretimi ve fiyat ilişkisinin Koyck Modeli İle Analizi: Azerbaycan için bir örnek çalışma

Year 2023, Volume: 60 Issue: 4 - Journal of Agriculture Faculty of Ege University Volume: 60 Issue: 4, 561 - 570, 05.01.2024

Gülistan Erdal Aytan Zeynalova Sait Engindeniz

https://doi.org/10.20289/zfdergi.1359942

Abstract

Amaç: Bu çalışmanın amacı, Azerbaycan'da pamuk üretiminde üretim miktarı-fiyat ilişkisini 1995-2022 dönemi verileriyle incelemektir.
Materyal ve Yöntem: Bu çalışmada FAOSTAT ve Azerbaycan Cumhuriyeti Devlet İstatistik Komitesinden elde edilen veriler analiz edilmiştir. Azerbaycan'da pamuk üretimi ile fiyat arasındaki ilişkiyi analiz etmek için Koyck modeli kullanılmıştır.
Araştırma Bulguları: Ortalama gecikme sayısına göre, pamuk fiyatlarındaki değişimin pamuk üretimi üzerinde anlamlı ve hissedilir bir etki yaratması için gereken sürenin 2,86 yıl olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Pamuk fiyatlarındaki bir birimlik artış üretimi 2,524 ton artırırken, önceki dönemde fiyatlardaki bir birimlik değişiklik pamuk üretimini 1,870 ton artırmaktadır.
Sonuç: Azerbaycan'da pamuk üretiminin sürdürülebilmesi, arttırılması ve uluslararası rekabet imkanlarının oluşturulabilmesi için bu ürünün üretimindeki gelişmelerin yakından takip edilmesi, alternatif strateji ve politikaların geliştirilmesi gerekmektedir.

Keywords

Azerbaycan, Pamuk, Pamuk pazarlaması, pamuk fiyatı, Koyck modeli

Ethical Statement

Ankete dayalı bir çalışma olmadığı için etik rapora gerek duyulmamaktadır

Supporting Institution

Destekleyen bir kurum yoktur

Project Number

Bir proje olarak hazırlanmamıştır.

Thanks

Verilerini paylaşan FAO ve Azerbaycan Devlet İstatistik Komitesine teşekkür ederiz.

Analysis of cotton production and price relationship by Koyck model: a case study for Azerbaijan

Abstract

Objective: The objective of this study was to examine the production quantity-price relationship in cotton production in Azerbaijan with the data of the period 1995-2022.
Materials and Methods: In this study, the data obtained from FAOSTAT and the State Statistics Committee of the Republic of Azerbaijan were analyzed. Koyck model was used to analyze the relationship between cotton production and price in Azerbaijan.
Results: It was determined that the time required for the change in cotton prices to cause a significant and perceptible effect on cotton production is 2,86 years according to the average number of lags. A one-unit increase in cotton prices increases production by 2,524 tons, while a one-unit change in prices in the previous period increases cotton production by 1,870 tons.
Conclusion: In order to sustain and increase cotton production in Azerbaijan and to create international competition opportunities, it is necessary to closely follow the developments in the production of this product and develop alternative strategies and policies.

Keywords

Azerbaijan, Cotton, Cotton marketing, Cotton price, Koyck model

Project Number

Bir proje olarak hazırlanmamıştır.

References

• Ağazade, S., 2021. Analysis of the relationship between cotton production and prices by using Koyck Approach in Turkey. Journal of Tekirdağ Agricultural Faculty, 18 (3): 386-399. http://doi.org/10.33462/jotaf.681808
• Ahmad, D. & M. Afzal, 2018. Estimating the economic perspective of cotton crop in southern Punjab of Pakistan. International Journal of Advanced and Applied Sciences, 5 (6) 50-55. https://doi.org/10.21833/ijaas.2018.06.007
• Akgül, S. & Ş. Yıldız, 2016. “Analysis of wheat production and price relationship in Yozgat with Koyck model, 178-188”. Proceeding of International Bozok Symposium (5-7 May 2016, Yozgat-Türkiye), Publications of Bozok University, 599 pp.
• Al-Shamary, H.F.H. & T.Z. Mikhlef, 2017. An econometrical analysis of supply response for lentils crops in Iraq by using the dynamic nerlove and production the lentils crops by using Koyck model for the Perio (1993-2013). Tikrit Journal for Agricultural Sciences, 17 (2): 317-324.
• Alt, F., 1942. Distributed lags. Econometrica, 10: 113-128.
• Avcıoğlu, Ü. & A. Aksoy, 2021. Analysis of correlation of pistachio production and income with the Koyck models in Turkey, Alinteri Journal of Agricultural Science, 36 (1): 71-76. http://doi.org/10.47059/alinteri/V36I1/AJAS21012
• Berk, A., 2017. The Analysis of relationship between sunflower production and its price by using Koyck model in Turkey. Custos e Agronegócio Online, 13 (4): 42-53.
• Bodjongo, M.J.M., 2022. Climate change, cotton prices and production in Cameroon. The European Journal of Development Research, 34: 22-50. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41287-020-00345-1
• Çelik, Ş., 2014. The analysis of production-price relation in hazelnuts shelled production using Koyck model of Turkey. Turkish Journal of Agricultural and Natural Sciences, 1 (4): 524-530.
• Çetinkaya, O., 2003. Determining the number of variables. Journal of Faculty of Economics of Istanbul University, 53 (1): 43-54.
• Çetinkaya, Ş., 2012. Econometric analysis of last ten years wheat production quantity-price relation of Turkey: Koyck - Almon technique. Journal of the Human and Social Science Researches, 1 (4): 52-66.
• Davidson, R. & J.G. Mackinnon, 2021. Estimation and Inference in Econometrics, Oxford University Press (ISBN 0-19-506011-3), New York, USA, 903 pp.
• De Silva, M.S.K., U.K. Jayasinghe-Mudalige, J.C. Edirisinghe, H.M.L.K. Herath & J.M.M. Udugama, 2014. Assessing the production and price relationship of black tea in Sri Lanka: an application of Koyck’s geometric-lag model. Sri Lanka Journal of Economic Research, 2 (2): 43-53.
• Dikmen, N., 2006. The relationship between Koyck-Almon approach and tobacco production and price. Journal of Social Sciences Institute of Çukurova University, 15 (2): 153-168.
• Doğan, H.G., A.Z. Gürler, B. Ayyıldız & E. Şimşek, 2014. An analytical evaluation of production-price relation in potato production using Koyck approach (the case of TR 71 region). Turkish Journal of Agriculture - Food Science and Technology, 2 (1): 42-46.
• Erçakar, M.E. & M. Taşçı, 2011. Relationship between productivity and prices of agricultural products: an empirical application on Turkey. Electronic Journal of Social Sciences, 10 (36): 171-186.
• Erdal, G. & H. Erdal, 2008. The Interaction between production and prices for dry onion. Journal of Faculty of Agriculture of Gaziosmanpaşa University, 25 (1): 33-39.
• Erdal, G., 2006. The Analysis of the relation between production and price in agricultural products with Koyck model (tomato case). Journal of Faculty of Agriculture of Gaziosmanpaşa University, 23 (2): 17-24.
• Faied, E.K. & A.A.M. Elshater, 2022. Socio-economics study of tomato production in Egypt: a case study. Middle East Journal of Agriculture Research, 11 (1): 312-323. http://doi.org/10.36632/mejar/2022.11.1.20.
• FAOSTAT, 2023. Crop Production and Price Statistics. (Web page: https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data) (Date accessed: July 2023).
• Geetha, R.S. & V. Mahesh, 2019. Minimum support prices (MSP) and its influence on cotton farming in India. Asian Journal of Agricultural Extension, Economics and Sociology, 30 (4): 1-8. http://doi.org/10.9734/AJAEES/2019/v30i430118.
• Gujarati, D.N., 2001. Basic Econometry. (Translate for Turkish: Ü. Şenesen & G. Şenesen), Literature Publications No.33, Istanbul, Türkiye, 849 pp.
• Hasan, M.K. & K.M. Khalequzzaman, 2015. Relationship between production and price of garlic in Bangladesh: an analysis by using distributed lag model. Bulletin of the Institute of Tropical Agriculture, 38: 31-38.
• Hasan, M.K., M.M. Haque & M.G. Rabbani, 2017. Production and price relationship of ginger in Bangladesh: a distributed lag model. The Agriculturists, 15 (1): 1-9. https://doi.org/10.3329/agric.v15i1.33423.
• Hudson, D., D. Ethridge & J. Brown, 1996. Producer prices in cotton markets: evaluation of reported price information accuracy. Agribusiness, 12 (4): 353-362.
• International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC), 2023. Cotton Production, Export and Import Statistics, (Web page: https://www.icac.org.) (Date accessed: July 2023).
• Işyar, Y., 1999. Econometric Models. Uludağ University Empowerment Foundation Publications, No.141, Bursa, Türkiye, 695 pp.
• Koyck, L.M., 1954, Distributed Lags and Investment Analysis. North Holland Publishing Company, Amsterdam, 21-50.
• MacDonald, S. & L. Meyer, 2018. Long run trends and fluctuations ın cotton prices, Munich Personal RePEc Archive, Paper No. 84484, (Web page: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/84484/) (Date accessed: July 2023).
• Mbise, M., 2016. Influence of expected farm-gate price on maize production in Ludewa District of Njombe Region, Tanzania: estimation of Koyck lag model. International Journal of Advanced Research, 4 (12): 292-299. http://dx.doi.org/10.21474/IJAR01/2393.
• Prikhodko, D., B. Sterk, Y. Ishihara, F. Mancini, H. Muminjanov & H. Weissen, 2019. Azerbaijan: Cotton Sector Review. FAO Investment Centre Country Highlights. Rome, FAO, 37 pp.
• Shahraki, A.S., N.A. Ahmadi & M. Safdari, 2019. Economic analysis of price shocks of production inputs and their ımpact on cotton price in Iran: the application of panel data vector auto-regression (PVAR) model. Environmental Energy and Economic Research, 3 (1): 23-36. https://doi.org/10.22097/eeer.2019.159908.1052.
• Tagiyeva, L., 2020. “The role of cotton in the development of regions, 652-657”. Proceeding of 55th International ScientificConference on Economic and Social Development (18-19 June 2020, Baku-Azerbaijan), Varazdin Development and Entrepreneurship Agency, 873 pp.
• The Ministry of Agriculture of the Republic of Azerbaijan, 2023. Agricultural supports. (Web page: https://www.agro.gov.az/en) (Date accessed: July 2023).
• The State Statistical Committee of the Republic of Azerbaijan, 2023. Crop production and trade statistics. (Web page: https://www.stat.gov.az/search/?q=cotton) (Date accessed: July 2023).
• Toossi, M., 2013. The price linkages between domestic and world cotton market. American-Eurasian Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences, 13 (3): 352-356. https://doi.org/10.5829/idosi.aejaes.2013.13.03.1936.
• Turğut, U., D. Güler & S. Engindeniz, 2023. The analysis of the relation between production and price in sunflower by Koyck model. Turkish Journal of Agricultural Economics, 29 (1): 57-64. https://doi.org/10.24181/tarekoder.1271544.
• Uzundumlu, A.S., A. Zeynalova & S. Engindeniz, 2023. Cotton production forecasts of Azerbaijan in the 2023-2027 periods. Journal of Agriculture Faculty of Ege University, 60 (2): 235-245. https://doi.org/10.20289/zfdergi.1296642.
• Wang, W., C. Zhang, J. Song & D. Xu, 2021. The Impact of target price policy on cotton cultivation: analysis of county-level panel data from China. Agriculture, 11: 1-18. https://doi.org/10.3390/ agriculture11100988.
• Yurdakul, F., 1998. The econometrics analysis of relationships between cotton production and prices: Koyck-Almon approach. Journal of Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences of Cukurova University, 8: 1-4.
• Zeynalova, A. & S. Engindeniz, 2023a. “An evaluation on the sustainability of cotton growing in Azerbaijan, 188-200”. Proceeding of Avrasya 7th International Conference on Applied Sciences (10-12 March 2023, Budapest-Hungary), Academy Global Publishing House, 449 pp.
• Zeynalova, A. & S. Engindeniz, 2023b. “Recent developments in Azerbaijan's cotton export to Turkey, 387-397”. Africa 2nd International Conference on New Horizons in Sciences (28-30 June 2023, Cairo-Egypt), Academy Global Publishing House, 489 pp.
• Zeynalova, A., G. Abbasova & S. Engindeniz, 2023. “Comparative analysis of cotton, tobacco and sugar beet production in Azerbaijan, 1-11“. Proceeding of Karadeniz 13th International Conference on Applied Sciences (21-24 July 2023, St. Petersburg-Russia), Academy Global Publishing House, 278 pp.