TÜRKİYE'NİN AB ÜYELİĞİ KİŞİ BAŞINA GSYİH'NİN YÜKSEK GELİRLİ EKONOMİYE YAKINSAMASINI SAĞLAYACAK MI?

Yıl 2023, Cilt: 10 Sayı: 23, 136 - 166, 31.12.2023

Metin Gürler Funda Kara

https://doi.org/10.58884/akademik-hassasiyetler.1340080

Öz

Bu çalışma, AB'ye yeni üye olan ülkelerin 2000'li yıllardaki ekonomik performanslarını inceleyerek, Türkiye'nin Avrupa Birliği'ne (AB) tam üye olması durumunda Türkiye ekonomisinde yaşanabilecek olası gelişmeleri incelemeyi amaçlamaktadır. Çalışma, 2000'li yıllarda AB'ye tam üye olarak kabul edilen on üç üye ülkeyi ve AB'ye aday ülke olan Türkiye'yi kapsamaktadır. Yeni üyelerin sekizi (çalışma yapıldığı esnada yedi üye vardı) aynı zamanda Euro (Avro) Bölgesi'nde yer almaktadır. Yeni üyelerin 11'i Orta ve Doğu Avrupa'da yer alırken, Malta ve Kıbrıs Rum Kesimi Akdeniz'de yer alan iki ada ülkesidir. Ülke seti için kişi başına düşen Gayri Safi Yurtiçi Hasıla (GSYİH)'nın normallik testi yapıldıktan sonra ülke verileri arasındaki korelasyon incelenmiştir. Üye ülkelerin üyelik öncesi ve üyelik sonrası kişi başına düşen GSYİH değerlerinin büyüme yakınsama denklemi ile büyüme performansı ve farklı birim kök testleri ile de kırılma noktaları zaman serileri ve panel verilerle analiz edilmiştir. 1995-2021 döneminde kişi başına düşen gelir artışında en iyi performansı Litvanya gösterirken, Romanya ikinci, Letonya ise üçüncü en iyi performansa sahip ülke olmuştur. Yakınsama teoremi nedeniyle, yeni üye ülkeler 1995-2021 döneminde kişi başına düşen gelirde AB ve Euro Bölgesi'nden daha yüksek büyüme hızına sahiptir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Kişi başına düşen Gayri Safi Yurtiçi Hasıla (GSYİH), Yakınsama, Kırılma noktaları, Ab üyeliği

Destekleyen Kurum

Yok

Proje Numarası

Yok

Teşekkür

Yok.

WILL THE MEMBERSHIP OF TÜRKİYE TO THE EU SPUR CONVERGENCE OF GDP PER CAPITA TO HIGH-INCOME ECONOMY?

Öz

This study aims to investigate possible developments in the Turkish economy, in case Türkiye becomes a full member of the European Union (EU), by examining the economic performances of the new members of the EU in the 2000s. The study covers thirteen-member countries that were accepted as full members of the EU in the 2000s and Türkiye, which is a candidate country to the EU. Eight (there were seven members when the study was done) of the new members are also in the Euro Area (Eurozone). While eleven of the new members are located in Central and Eastern Europe, Malta and Cyprus are two island countries located in the Mediterranean. After testing the normality of GDP per capita for the country set, the correlation between the countries was investigated. The growth performance with growth convergence equation and breakpoints with different unit root tests in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita of the member countries before and after the membership were also analysed by time series and panel data. Lithuania has the best performance in income per capita increase in 1995-2021 period whereas Romania has the second and Latvia has the third best performance. Due to the convergence theorem, new member countries have highest growth rate than the EU and Euro Area in income per capita in 1995-2021 period.

Anahtar Kelimeler

GDP per capita, Convergence, Breakpoints, EU membership

Proje Numarası

Yok

Kaynakça

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