Araştırma Makalesi
BibTex RIS Kaynak Göster

Geçiş Ülkelerinde Devlet Harcamaları ile Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Kırgızistan ve Tacikistan Örneği

Yıl 2017, Sayı: 83 - Avrasya'nın Siyasal İktisadı Özel Sayısı, 241 - 258, 31.10.2017

Öz

Sovyetler Birliği dağıldıktan sonra bu birliğe üye olan ülkeler piyasa ekonomisine geçmeye başlamışlardır. Geçişin ilk yıllarında ülkelerin çoğu ekonomik
ve siyasi krizlerle karşılaşmışlardır. Her ülke, kendi ekonomik durumunu göz
önüne alarak para ve maliye politikası seçmişlerdir. Ekonomik durumları benzer olmasına rağmen, Kırgızistan ve Tacikistan farklı maliye politikasını uygulamaktadırlar. Son yıllarda Kırgızistan genişletici maliye politikası uygularken,
Tacikistan daraltıcı maliye politikasını seçmiş bulunmaktadır. Bu çalışmada
Kırgızistan ile Tacikistan’da kamu harcamaları ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki uzun ve kısa dönemli ilişkiler, 2000:1 – 2013:4 dönemine ait çeyrek veriler
ve Engle-Granger eşbütünleşme ve Granger nedensellik testleri kullanılarak
incelenmiştir. Araştırma sonuçlarına göre, her iki ülkede de GSYİH ile kamu
harcamaları arasında eşbütünleşme ilişkisi vardır. Granger nedensellik testine
göre, Kırgızistan’da kamu harcamalarından ekonomik büyümeye doğru tek
yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi mevcuttur. Fakat Tacikistan’da kamu harcamaları ile
ekonomik büyüme arasında herhangi bir nedensellik ilişkisi bulunmamıştır.

Kaynakça

  • Aschauer, David Alan (1989). “Is Public Expenditure Productive?”. Journal of Monetary Economics 23: 177-200.
  • Barro, Robert J. (1990). “Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth”. Journal of Political Economy 98: 103-125.
  • Devarajan, Shantayanan et al. (1996). “The Composition of Public Expenditure and Economic Growth”. Journal of Monetary Economics 37: 313-344.
  • Dickey, David A. and Wayne A. Fuller (1981). “Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root”. Econometrica 49 (4): 1057-1072.
  • Engle, Robert F. and Clive W. J. Granger (1987). “Cointegration and Error Correction: Representation,Estimation, and Testing”. Econometrica 55: 251-276.
  • Engle, Robert F. and Byung Sam Yoo (1987). “Forecasting and Testing in Co-Integrated Systems”. Journal of Econometrics 35: 143-159.
  • Granger, Clive W. J. (1969). “Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods”. Econometrica 37: 424-438.
  • Granger, Clive W. J. (1980). “Testing for Causality”. Journal of Economic Dynamic and Control 4: 229-252.
  • Grier, Kevin B. and Tullock Gordon (1989). “An Empirical Analysis of Cross-National Economic Growth 1951-1980”. Journal of Monetary Economics 24: 259-276.
  • Holms, James M. and A. Patricia Hutton (1990). “On the Causal Relationship between Government Expenditures and National Income”. Review of Economics and Statistics 72: 87-95.
  • Hsieh, Edward and Lai S. Kon (1994). “Government Spending and Economic Growth: the G-7 Experience”. Applied Economic 26: 535-42.
  • International Monetary Fund (2004). “Kyrgyz Republic Expenditure Review Fiscal Policies for Growth and Poverty Reduction”. Report No. 28123-KG.
  • International Monetary Fund (2011). “Staff Report for the 2011 Article IV Consultation and Request for a Three-Year Arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility”. Country Report No. 11/155, June.
  • Islam, Anisul M. and Nazemzadeh Ashgar (2001). “Causal Relationship between Government Size and Economic Development: An Empirical Study of the U. S.”. Southwestern Economic Review 28: 75-88.
  • Landau, Daniel (1983). “Government Expenditure and Economic growth: a Cross-Country Study”. Southern Economic Journal 49: 783-92. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1058716, (02.03.15).
  • Miller, Stephen M. and Frank S. Russek (1997). “Fiscal Structures and Economic Growth: International Evidence”. Economic Inquiry 35: 603-613.
  • National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic (2010). Annual Report 2009, LLC “Triada Print”, Bishkek.
  • National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic (2011). Annual Report 2010, LLC “Triada Print”, Bishkek.
  • National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic (2013). Annual Report 2012, LLC “Triada Print”, Bishkek.
  • National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic (2014). Annual Report of the National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic for 2013, LLC “Triada Print”. (available at: http://www.nbkr.kg/DOC/23062014/000000000027435.pdf (08.06.17).
  • Niloy, Bose et al. (2003). “Public Expenditure and Economic Growth: A Disaggregated Analysis for Developing Countries”. The Manchester School 25 (5): 533-556.
  • Phillips, Peter C. B. and Pierre Perron (1988). “Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression”. Biometrika 75: 335-346.
  • Ram, Rati (1986). “Government Size and Economic Growth: A New Framework and Some Evidence from Cross-Section and Time Series”. American Economic Review 76: 191-203.
  • Ramayandi, Arief (2003). “Economic Growth and Government Size in Indonesia: Some Lessons for the Local Authorities”. Working Paper in Economics and Development Studies. No. 200302.
  • Sáez, Marta Pascual and Alvarez-García Santiago (2006). “Government Spending and Economic Growth in the European Union Countries: An Empirical Approach”. Working Paper Series (https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=914104, 05.03.15)
  • Seddighi, Hamid R. et al. (2000). Econometrics: A Pratical Approach. London: Routledge.
  • Statistics Committee of Kyrgyz Republic, http://stat.kg/en/statistics/finansy/ 07.06.2017.
  • Taiwo, Muritala (2011). “Government Expenditure and Economic Development: Empirical Evidence from Nigeria”. European Journal of Business and Management 3 (9): 18-28.
  • Tajikistan Statistics Committee, http://www.stat.tj/ru/analytical-tables/real-sector/ (08.06.17).
  • Terasawa, Katsuaki L. and William R. Gates (1998). “Relationships between Government Size and Economic Growth: Japan’s Reforms and Evidence from OECD”. International Public Management Journal 1 (2):195-223.
  • Yamak, Nebiye ve Yakup Küçükkale (1997). “Türkiye’de Kamu Harcamaları Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi”. İktisat- İşletme ve Finans Dergisi 12 (131): 5- 14.
  • Asanov, Turusbek (2004). «Fiskal’naya politika Kyrgyzskoy Respubliki v perekhodnom mire k rynochnoy ekonomike». Vestnik KRSU 4 (2): 6-12.
  • Boimirzoev, Boimirzo (2002). Byudzhetnoye regulirovaniye ekonomiki v usloviyakh perekhoda k rynochnomu khozyaystvu: na materialakh Respubliki Tadzhikistan. PhD thesis. Khudzhand, Nauchnaya biblioteka dissertatsiy i avtoreferatov dissercat (available at: http://www.dissercat.com)
  • Ziyaev, Rustam D. (2011). “ Etapy byudzhetnoy reformy v Tadzhikistane ”. Izvestiya Sankt- Peterburgskogo gosudarstvennogo ekonomicheskogo universiteta 1:101-103.
  • Zoidov, K. H. and Z. K. Zoidov (2012). “Retrospektivnyy analiz i prognozirovaniye tsiklicheskikh resheniy makroekonomicheskoy dinamiki Respubliki Tadzhikistan na osnove ekonometricheskikh metodov”. Central Economics and Mathematics Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences (available at: www.ipr-ras. ru/articles/zoidov12-1-int.pdf (10.05.15)).
  • Secretariat under the Committee Majlisi Namoyandagon Majlisi Oli of Republic of Tajikistan for Economy and Finance. (2014). “Analiz rezul’tatov gosudarstvennogo byudzheta Respubliki Tadzhikistan za 2013 god”. Proyekt
  • ‘Ukrepleniye potentsiala parlamenta Respubliki Tadzhikistan v oblasti gosudarstvennykh finansov’. (available at: http://www.pbo.tj/upload/Analysis/).
  • Tyulyundieva, Nazira (2011). Kontseptsiya upravleniya byudzhetom gosudarstva. Bishkek (available at: www2.hss.de/fileadmin/centralasia/Kirgistan/images/Publikationen/lehrbuch_29.pdf, 10.06.17).
  • Chorshanbiev, Payrav (2010). “Nalogovyye stavki v Tadzhikistane ne takiye vysokiye po sravneniyu s drugimi stranami - Nalogovyy komitet pri pravitel’stve RT”. (available at: http://www.news.tj/ru/news/ , 12.06.2013).

Relationship between Government Expenditure and Economic Growth in Transition Countries: Case of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan

Yıl 2017, Sayı: 83 - Avrasya'nın Siyasal İktisadı Özel Sayısı, 241 - 258, 31.10.2017

Öz

After the collapse of Soviet Union the membercountries was accompanied by economic and political crises. Each country has chosen own monetary and fiscal policy considering the economic situation. Even though that their economic situation is
similar, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are pursuing opposite fiscal policy. More precisely,
Kyrgyzstan in recent years has changed its fiscal policy towards expansionary policy,
when Tajikistan is continuing contractionary policy. This paper analyses the long and
the short-run causality relationships between government expenditure and economic
growth in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan to reveal the results of such fiscal policies on real
output, using Engle-Granger Cointegration and Granger Causality Tests.Results show
that, over the 2000:1-2013:4 period, there is a long run relationship between GDP and
government expenditure in both countries. According to Granger Causality Test it was
found anunidirectional causality from government expenditures to economic growth
in Kyrgyzstan. But Granger causality test on economy ofTajikistan does not give any
causality relations between these variables.  

Kaynakça

  • Aschauer, David Alan (1989). “Is Public Expenditure Productive?”. Journal of Monetary Economics 23: 177-200.
  • Barro, Robert J. (1990). “Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth”. Journal of Political Economy 98: 103-125.
  • Devarajan, Shantayanan et al. (1996). “The Composition of Public Expenditure and Economic Growth”. Journal of Monetary Economics 37: 313-344.
  • Dickey, David A. and Wayne A. Fuller (1981). “Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root”. Econometrica 49 (4): 1057-1072.
  • Engle, Robert F. and Clive W. J. Granger (1987). “Cointegration and Error Correction: Representation,Estimation, and Testing”. Econometrica 55: 251-276.
  • Engle, Robert F. and Byung Sam Yoo (1987). “Forecasting and Testing in Co-Integrated Systems”. Journal of Econometrics 35: 143-159.
  • Granger, Clive W. J. (1969). “Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods”. Econometrica 37: 424-438.
  • Granger, Clive W. J. (1980). “Testing for Causality”. Journal of Economic Dynamic and Control 4: 229-252.
  • Grier, Kevin B. and Tullock Gordon (1989). “An Empirical Analysis of Cross-National Economic Growth 1951-1980”. Journal of Monetary Economics 24: 259-276.
  • Holms, James M. and A. Patricia Hutton (1990). “On the Causal Relationship between Government Expenditures and National Income”. Review of Economics and Statistics 72: 87-95.
  • Hsieh, Edward and Lai S. Kon (1994). “Government Spending and Economic Growth: the G-7 Experience”. Applied Economic 26: 535-42.
  • International Monetary Fund (2004). “Kyrgyz Republic Expenditure Review Fiscal Policies for Growth and Poverty Reduction”. Report No. 28123-KG.
  • International Monetary Fund (2011). “Staff Report for the 2011 Article IV Consultation and Request for a Three-Year Arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility”. Country Report No. 11/155, June.
  • Islam, Anisul M. and Nazemzadeh Ashgar (2001). “Causal Relationship between Government Size and Economic Development: An Empirical Study of the U. S.”. Southwestern Economic Review 28: 75-88.
  • Landau, Daniel (1983). “Government Expenditure and Economic growth: a Cross-Country Study”. Southern Economic Journal 49: 783-92. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1058716, (02.03.15).
  • Miller, Stephen M. and Frank S. Russek (1997). “Fiscal Structures and Economic Growth: International Evidence”. Economic Inquiry 35: 603-613.
  • National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic (2010). Annual Report 2009, LLC “Triada Print”, Bishkek.
  • National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic (2011). Annual Report 2010, LLC “Triada Print”, Bishkek.
  • National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic (2013). Annual Report 2012, LLC “Triada Print”, Bishkek.
  • National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic (2014). Annual Report of the National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic for 2013, LLC “Triada Print”. (available at: http://www.nbkr.kg/DOC/23062014/000000000027435.pdf (08.06.17).
  • Niloy, Bose et al. (2003). “Public Expenditure and Economic Growth: A Disaggregated Analysis for Developing Countries”. The Manchester School 25 (5): 533-556.
  • Phillips, Peter C. B. and Pierre Perron (1988). “Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression”. Biometrika 75: 335-346.
  • Ram, Rati (1986). “Government Size and Economic Growth: A New Framework and Some Evidence from Cross-Section and Time Series”. American Economic Review 76: 191-203.
  • Ramayandi, Arief (2003). “Economic Growth and Government Size in Indonesia: Some Lessons for the Local Authorities”. Working Paper in Economics and Development Studies. No. 200302.
  • Sáez, Marta Pascual and Alvarez-García Santiago (2006). “Government Spending and Economic Growth in the European Union Countries: An Empirical Approach”. Working Paper Series (https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=914104, 05.03.15)
  • Seddighi, Hamid R. et al. (2000). Econometrics: A Pratical Approach. London: Routledge.
  • Statistics Committee of Kyrgyz Republic, http://stat.kg/en/statistics/finansy/ 07.06.2017.
  • Taiwo, Muritala (2011). “Government Expenditure and Economic Development: Empirical Evidence from Nigeria”. European Journal of Business and Management 3 (9): 18-28.
  • Tajikistan Statistics Committee, http://www.stat.tj/ru/analytical-tables/real-sector/ (08.06.17).
  • Terasawa, Katsuaki L. and William R. Gates (1998). “Relationships between Government Size and Economic Growth: Japan’s Reforms and Evidence from OECD”. International Public Management Journal 1 (2):195-223.
  • Yamak, Nebiye ve Yakup Küçükkale (1997). “Türkiye’de Kamu Harcamaları Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi”. İktisat- İşletme ve Finans Dergisi 12 (131): 5- 14.
  • Asanov, Turusbek (2004). «Fiskal’naya politika Kyrgyzskoy Respubliki v perekhodnom mire k rynochnoy ekonomike». Vestnik KRSU 4 (2): 6-12.
  • Boimirzoev, Boimirzo (2002). Byudzhetnoye regulirovaniye ekonomiki v usloviyakh perekhoda k rynochnomu khozyaystvu: na materialakh Respubliki Tadzhikistan. PhD thesis. Khudzhand, Nauchnaya biblioteka dissertatsiy i avtoreferatov dissercat (available at: http://www.dissercat.com)
  • Ziyaev, Rustam D. (2011). “ Etapy byudzhetnoy reformy v Tadzhikistane ”. Izvestiya Sankt- Peterburgskogo gosudarstvennogo ekonomicheskogo universiteta 1:101-103.
  • Zoidov, K. H. and Z. K. Zoidov (2012). “Retrospektivnyy analiz i prognozirovaniye tsiklicheskikh resheniy makroekonomicheskoy dinamiki Respubliki Tadzhikistan na osnove ekonometricheskikh metodov”. Central Economics and Mathematics Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences (available at: www.ipr-ras. ru/articles/zoidov12-1-int.pdf (10.05.15)).
  • Secretariat under the Committee Majlisi Namoyandagon Majlisi Oli of Republic of Tajikistan for Economy and Finance. (2014). “Analiz rezul’tatov gosudarstvennogo byudzheta Respubliki Tadzhikistan za 2013 god”. Proyekt
  • ‘Ukrepleniye potentsiala parlamenta Respubliki Tadzhikistan v oblasti gosudarstvennykh finansov’. (available at: http://www.pbo.tj/upload/Analysis/).
  • Tyulyundieva, Nazira (2011). Kontseptsiya upravleniya byudzhetom gosudarstva. Bishkek (available at: www2.hss.de/fileadmin/centralasia/Kirgistan/images/Publikationen/lehrbuch_29.pdf, 10.06.17).
  • Chorshanbiev, Payrav (2010). “Nalogovyye stavki v Tadzhikistane ne takiye vysokiye po sravneniyu s drugimi stranami - Nalogovyy komitet pri pravitel’stve RT”. (available at: http://www.news.tj/ru/news/ , 12.06.2013).
Toplam 39 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Raziiakhan Abdieva

Damira Baigonushova Bu kişi benim

Junus Ganiev

Yayımlanma Tarihi 31 Ekim 2017
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2017 Sayı: 83 - Avrasya'nın Siyasal İktisadı Özel Sayısı

Kaynak Göster

APA Abdieva, R., Baigonushova, D., & Ganiev, J. (2017). Relationship between Government Expenditure and Economic Growth in Transition Countries: Case of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. Bilig(83), 241-258.
AMA Abdieva R, Baigonushova D, Ganiev J. Relationship between Government Expenditure and Economic Growth in Transition Countries: Case of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. Bilig. Ekim 2017;(83):241-258.
Chicago Abdieva, Raziiakhan, Damira Baigonushova, ve Junus Ganiev. “Relationship Between Government Expenditure and Economic Growth in Transition Countries: Case of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan”. Bilig, sy. 83 (Ekim 2017): 241-58.
EndNote Abdieva R, Baigonushova D, Ganiev J (01 Ekim 2017) Relationship between Government Expenditure and Economic Growth in Transition Countries: Case of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. Bilig 83 241–258.
IEEE R. Abdieva, D. Baigonushova, ve J. Ganiev, “Relationship between Government Expenditure and Economic Growth in Transition Countries: Case of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan”, Bilig, sy. 83, ss. 241–258, Ekim 2017.
ISNAD Abdieva, Raziiakhan vd. “Relationship Between Government Expenditure and Economic Growth in Transition Countries: Case of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan”. Bilig 83 (Ekim 2017), 241-258.
JAMA Abdieva R, Baigonushova D, Ganiev J. Relationship between Government Expenditure and Economic Growth in Transition Countries: Case of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. Bilig. 2017;:241–258.
MLA Abdieva, Raziiakhan vd. “Relationship Between Government Expenditure and Economic Growth in Transition Countries: Case of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan”. Bilig, sy. 83, 2017, ss. 241-58.
Vancouver Abdieva R, Baigonushova D, Ganiev J. Relationship between Government Expenditure and Economic Growth in Transition Countries: Case of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. Bilig. 2017(83):241-58.

Ahmet Yesevi Üniversitesi Mütevelli Heyet Başkanlığı