Sustainability of the Packaging Industry and Oil Based Plastic: Analysis of the Plastic Packaging Industry's Dependence on Oil

Yıl 2022, Sayı: 35, 252 - 258, 07.05.2022

Bekir Keskin Şahnaz Koçoğlu

https://doi.org/10.31590/ejosat.1059720

Cited By: 1

Öz

The study aims to analyze the packaging industry's dependence on oil. The widespread use of renewable energy and the replacement of gasoline cars with electric cars cause oil producers to seek new markets. By 2050, it is estimated that the largest market for oil producers will be plastic packaging producers. The dependence of the packaging industry on plastic and petroleum is an issue neglected in the literature. Therefore, we aim to better understand this sector by examining the effects of oil prices and macroeconomic factors on the stock returns of the largest packaging companies operating in the USA. The effects of the S&P500 index, VIX index, inflation, and oil prices on monthly stock prices of packaging companies between January 2000 and December 2019 were analyzed with the Panel ARDL model. The results reveal that oil prices have a strong negative impact on the stock prices of companies in the industry in the long run. Morover, VECM Granger test proves that oil prices have the power to predict the stock prices of companies in the packaging industry.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Plastic, Packaging Industry, Oil Prices, Sustainability, Panel ARDL

Ambalaj Sektörünün Sürdürülebilirliği ve Petrol Bazlı Plastik: Plastik Ambalaj Sektörünün Petrole Olan Bağımlılığının Analizi

Öz

Bu çalışmanın amacı ambalaj sektörünün petrole olan bağımlılığının analiz edilmesidir. Yenilenebilir enerjinin yaygınlaşması ve otomotiv sektöründe benzinli arabaların yerini hızla elektrikli arabaların alması, petrol üreticilerinin kendilerine yeni pazarlar aramalarına neden olmaktadır. 2050 yılına gelindiğinde petrol üreticilerinin en büyük pazarının plastik ambalaj üreticilerinden oluşacağı tahmin edilmektedir. Ambalaj sektörünün plastiğe yani petrole olan bağımlılığı daha önceki çalışmalarda ihmal edilmiş bir konudur. Bu amaçla, Amerika’da faaliyet gösteren en büyük ambalaj firmalarının hisse senedi getirilerine petrol fiyatlarının ve makroekonomik faktörlerin etkilerinin incelenmesi ile bu sektörün daha iyi anlaşılması amaçlanmaktadır. 2000 Ocak ile 2019 Aralık tarihlerinde ambalaj firmalarının aylık hisse senedi fiyatları üstüne S&P500 endeksinin, VIX endeksinin, enflasyonun ve petrol fiyatlarının etkisi Panel ARDL modeli ile analiz edilmiştir. Sonuç olarak ambalaj sektöründeki firmaların hisse senedi fiyatlarına petrol fiyatlarının uzun vadede güçlü negatif etkisi bulunmuştur. Ayrıca VECM Granger testi sonucunda petrol fiyatlarının ambalaj sektöründeki firmaların hisse senedi fiyatlarını tahmin etme gücü olduğu bulunmuştur.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Plastik, Ambalaj Sektörü, Petrol Fiyatları, Sürdürülebilirlik, Panel ARDL

Kaynakça

• Arouri, M. E. H., & Rault, C. (2012). Oil prices and stock markets in GCC countries: empirical evidence from panel analysis. International Journal of Finance & Economics, 17(3), 242-253.
• Arouri, M. E. H., Lahiani, A., & Nguyen, D. K. (2011). Return and volatility transmission between world oil prices and stock markets of the GCC countries. Economic Modelling, 28(4), 1815-1825.
• Choi, I. (2001). Unit root tests for panel data. Journal of International Money and Finance, 20(2), 249-272. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0261-5606(00)00048-6
• Faff, R. W., & Brailsford, T. J. (1999). Oil price risk and the Australian stock market. Journal of Energy Finance & Development, 4(1), 69-87.
• Franchetti, M.J., & Apul, D. (2013). Carbon footprint analysis concepts, methods, implementation, and case studies. USA:CRC Press.
• Ghosh, A. (2015). Technology of polymer packaging. Cincinnati: Hanser Publications.
• Hamilton, J. D. (1983). Oil and the macroeconomy since World War II. Journal of political economy, 91(2), 228-248.
• Hammoudeh, S., Dibooglu, S., & Aleisa, E. (2004). Relationships among US oil prices and oil industry equity indices. International Review of Economics & Finance, 13(4), 427-453.
• Henriques, I., & Sadorsky, P. (2008). Oil prices and the stock prices of alternative energy companies. Energy Economics, 30(3), 998-1010.
• Im, K. S., Pesaran, M. H., & Shin, Y. (2003). Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels. Journal of econometrics, 115(1), 53-74.
• Industrial Report (All4pack) (2016). Packaging: market and challenges in 2016. Erişim adresi https://www.all4pack.com/content/location/136757, (Erişim Tarihi: 10.03.2021).
• Investing.com (2020). Erişim Adresi https://www.investing.com/
• Keskin, B., Altay, B.N., Akyol, M., Meral, G,. Uyar, O., & Fleming, P.D. (2018). Global packaging trends, 6th International Printing Technologies Symposium, 1-3 November 2018. İstanbul, Türkiye.
• Levin, A., Lin, C. F., & Chu, C. S. J. (2002). Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties. Journal of econometrics, 108(1), 1-24. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(01)00098-7
• Maddala, G. S., & Wu, S. (1999). A comparative study of unit root tests with panel data and a new simple test. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and statistics, 61(S1), 631-652
• Maghyereh, A. (2006). Oil price shocks and emerging stock markets: A generalized VAR approach. In Global stock markets and portfolio management (pp. 55-68). Palgrave Macmillan, London.
• Matthews, H.S., Hendrickson, C.T., & Weber, C.L. (2008). The importance of carbon footprint estimation boundaries. Environmental Science & Technology. 42, 5839–5842.
• Ncube, L. K., Ude, A. U., Ogunmuyiwa, E. N., Zulkifli, R., & Beas, I. N. (2020). Environmental impact of food packaging materials: a review of contemporary development from conventional plastics to polylactic acid based materials. Materials, 13(21), 4994.
• Nguyen, C. C., & Bhatti, M. I. (2012). Copula model dependency between oil prices and stock markets: Evidence from China and Vietnam. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 22(4), 758-773.
• OECD ve International Energy Agency (2018). The future of petrochemicals towards more sustainable plastics and fertilisers. Erişim adresi https://webstore.iea.org/download/direct/2310. (Erişim Tarihi 10.11.2020)
• Pedroni, P. (1996). Fully modified OLS for heterogeneous cointegrated panels and the case of purchasing power parity. Manuscript, Department of Economics, Indiana University, 5, 1-45.
• Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. P. (1999). Pooled mean group estimation of dynamic heterogeneous panels. Journal of the American statistical Association, 94(446), 621-634. https://doi.org/10.2307/2670182
• Sadorsky, P. (2001). Risk factors in stock returns of Canadian oil and gas companies. Energy economics, 23(1), 17-28.
• Sadorsky, P. (2012). Correlations and volatility spillovers between oil prices and the stock prices of clean energy and technology companies. Energy economics, 34(1), 248-255.
• Selke, S., & Culter, J.D. (2016). Plastics packaging properties, processing, applications, and regulations. Cincinnati: Hanser Publications.
• Simithers Pira Report (2007). Plastic packaging waste: global legislation and regulations. Pira International Ltd. London, UK.
• Simithers Pira Report (2020). The future of packaging: long-term strategic forecasts to 2030. Simithers Pira, USA.
• U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (2020). Consumer Price Index. Erişim Adresi https://www.bls.gov/cpi/
• Varun, G., Sharma, A., & Himanshu N. (2016). Environmental impacts of packaging materials. In environmental footprints of packaging. Springer, Hong Kong.