Meteorolojik Zaman Serilerinde Kayıp Veri Tahmin Yöntemlerinin Başarımlarının Korelasyon Boyutu Analiziyle Karşılaştırılması

Yıl 2011, Cilt: 8 Sayı: 2, 55 - 67, 17.10.2011

Sipan Aslan Ceylan Yozgatlıgil Cem İyigün İnci Batmaz Hasan Tatlı

Öz

Bu çalışmada, meteorolojik zaman serilerinde kayıp veri tahmin yöntemlerinin başarımları doğrusal olmayan dinamik zaman serileri analizinde sıklıkla kullanılan korelasyon boyutu belirleme yöntemiyle karşılaştırılmıştır. Bu amaçla, 1965-2006 periyodunda, eksik veri içermeyen aylık meteorolojik zaman serilerinde farklı oranlarda yapay kayıp veriler oluşturulmuş ve oluşturulan yapay kayıp veriler tahmin yöntemleriyle tamamlanarak bu serilerin korelasyon boyutları orijinal serilerden elde edilen korelasyon boyutlarıyla karşılaştırılmıştır. Elde edilen bulgular doğrultusunda, karekök hata kareler ortalaması gibi sadece merkezi eğilimleri dikkate alan doğruluk ölçüm yöntemleri yanında serilerin alansal ve zamansal özelliklerine hassas bağımlı olan korelasyon boyutu belirleme yönteminin de kullanılmasının zaman serilerinde kayıp veri tahmin yöntemlerinin başarımlarının karşılaştırılmasını daha güvenilir düzeye taşıyacağı gözlenmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Doğrusal Olmayan Zaman Serileri, Kayıp Veri, Korelasyon Boyutu, Meteorolojik Zaman Serileri

Comparison of Missing Data Imputation Methods for Meteorological Time Series Data Via Correlation Dimension Technique

Öz

In this study, the performances of missing value imputation methods for meteorological data are compared by Correlation Dimension Technique, which is frequently used in nonlinear dynamic time series analysis. For this purpose, artificial missing data sets are created with different missing data ratios from complete monthly meteorological time series in the spanning period of 1965-2006. Comparisons were made between original Correlation Dimensions which are calculated by using complete time series and with Correlation Dimensions calculated on re-estimated time series. Since the Correlation Dimension is highly dependent on auto-correlation structures of time series and according to our findings using Correlation Dimension, besides central tendency measures, will make comparisons more appropriate and reliable.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Nonlinear Time Series, Missing Data, Correlation Dimension, Meteorological Time Series

Kaynakça

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