Dış borçlanma ve ekonomik büyüme: gelişmekte olan ülkeler üzerine yatay kesit bağımlılığı altında panel veri analizi
Yıl 2021,
Cilt: 14 Sayı: 1, 261 - 279, 08.01.2021
Halil Altıntaş
,
Erdal Alancıoğlu
Öz
Bu çalışmanın amacı; 16 gelişmekte olan ülkenin 1991-2015 dönemleri arasında dış borç, sabit sermaye birikimi ve sanayi istihdamının ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisini Westerlund ve Edgerton (2007) ve Durbin-Haussman (2008) panel eşbütünleşme testleri ile analiz etmektir. Uzun dönem katsayıların hesaplanmasında Eberhardt ve Bond (2009) tarafından geliştirilen ve yatay kesit bağımlılığını göz önünde bulunduran AMG (Augmented Mean Group Estimator) tahmincisi kullanılmıştır. Analiz bulgularına göre, dış borç, sabit sermaye birikimi, sanayi istihdamı ve ekonomik büyüme arasında uzun dönemli ilişki olduğu tespit edilmiştir. AMG tahmincisinden elde edilen analiz bulguları panelin genelinde; dış borç ile ekonomik büyüme arasında negatif ve istatistiki olarak ve sabit sermaye birikimi ile ekonomik büyüme arasında pozitif ve istatistiki olarak anlamlı bir ilişkiye rastlanılmıştır. Buna karşılık, sanayi istihdamı ile ekonomik büyüme arasında istatistiki olarak anlamlı ilişki tespit edilmemiştir.
Kaynakça
- Adesola, W. A. (2009). Debt servicing and economic growth in Nigeria: An empirical investigation. Global Journal of Social Sciences, 8, 1-11.
- Afonso, A. & Jalles, J. T. (2013). Growth and Productivity: The Role Of Government Debt. International Review of Economics and Finance, 25, 384-407.
- Ajayi, L. B., & Oke, M. O. (2012). Effect of External Debt on Economic Growth and Development of Nigeria. International Journal of Business and Social Science, 3, 297-304.
- Ayadi, F.S & Ayadi, F.O. (2008). The Impact of External Debt on Economic Growth: A Comparative Study of Nigeria and South Africa, Journal of Sustainable Development in Africa, 10 (3), 234-264.
- Azam, M., Emirullah, C., Prabhakar, A.C., and Khan, A.Q., (2013). The Role Of External Debt in Economic Growth of Indonesia - A Blessing Or Burden?, Middle-East Journal of Scientific Research, 17 (5), 565-572.
- Bai, J. (2009). Panel Data Models With Interactive Fixed Effects”, Econometrica, 77, 1229-1279.
- Bakar, A. N. & Hassan S. (2008). Empirical evaluation on external debt of Malaysia. Int. Bus. Econ. Res. J. 7 (2), 95–108.
- Chinaemerem, O.C. & Anayochukwu, O.B. (2013). Impact of External Debt Financing on Economic Development in Nigeria. Research Journal of Finance and Accounting, 4 (4), 92–99.
- Choong, C.K., Lau, E., Liew, V.K.S. & Puah, C.H. (2010). Does Debts Foster Economic Growth? The experience of Malaysia. African Journal of Business Management, 4 (8), 1564–1575.
- Chudik, A. & Pesaran M. H. (2015). Common Correlated Effects Estimation of Heterogeneous Dynamic Panel Data Models with Weakly Exogenous Regressors, Journal of Econometrics, 188, 393-420.
- Clements, B., Bhattacharya, R., & Nguyen, T. (2003). External Debt, Public Investment, and Growth in Low-income Countries. Washington: IMF (IMF Working Paper No. 249, WP/03/249).
- Cohen, D. (1995). Large External Debt And (Slow) Domestic Growth a Theoretical Analysis. Journal Of Economic Dynamics and Control, 19(5), 1141-1163.
- Doğan, İ., & Bilgili, F. (2014). The Non-Linear Impact of High and Growing Government External Debt on Economic Growth: A Markov Regime-Switching Approach. Economic Modelling, 39, 213-220.
- Doğruel, F.& Doğruel, A.S., (2007). Foreign Debt Dynamics In Middle Income Countries. In: Proceedings of Midwest Energy Efficiency Alliance Conference. Chicago.
- Doruk, Ö. T. (2018). Dış Borçlar ve Ekonomik Büyüme: Türkiye Ekonomisinde 1970-2014 Dönemi İçin Ampirik Bir İnceleme, Maliye Dergisi. 175, 96-114.
- Eberhart M., & Bond, S.R. (2009). Cross-sectional Dependence in Non-Stationary Panel Models: A Novel Estimator. Nordic Econometric Meetings, Sweeden.
- Edo, S., Osadolor, N. E., & Dading, I. F. (2019). Growing External Debt and Declining Export: The Concurrent Impediments in Economic Growth of Sub Saharan African Countries. International Economics.
- Fosu, A. K. (1999). The External Debt Burden and Economic Growth In The 1980s: Evidence From Sub-Saharan Africa. Canadian Journal of Development Studies. 20(2), 307–318.
- Göçer, İ. (2013). Ar-Ge Harcamalarının Yüksek Teknolojili Ürün İhracatı, Dış Ticaret Dengesi ve Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkileri, Maliye Dergisi, (165), 215-240.
- Guei, K. M. (2019). External Debt and Growth in Emerging Economies. International Economic Journal. 33, 236-251.
- Hameed, A., Ashraf, H., & Chaudhary, M. A. (2008). External Debt and Its Impact on Economic and Business Growth in Pakistan. International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, 20, 132-140.
- Jayaraman, T. K. & Lau, E. (2009). Does external debt lead to economic growth in Pacific island countries. Journal of Policy Modeling, 31(2), 272-288.
- Karagöl, E. (2002). The Causality Analysis of External Debt Service and GNP: The Case of Turkey. Central Bank Review. 2 (1), 39-64.
Kasidi, F., & Said, A. M. (2013). Impact of External Debt on Economic Growth: A Case Study of Tanzania. Advances In Management and Applied Economics, 3(4), 59.
- Kharusi, S. A., & Ada, M. S. (2018). External Debt and Economic Growth: The Case of Emerging Economy. Journal of Economic Integration, 33(1), 1141-1157.
- Krugman, P (1998). Financing vs. Forgiving A Debt Overhang. Journal of development Economics, 29(3), 253-268
- Mahmoud, L. O. M. (2015). The Role of External Debt On Economic Growth: Evidence From Mauritania. International Journal of Economics & Management Sciences, 4(4), 240.
- Marobhe, M. (2019). External Debts and Economic Growth in Tanzania. Research Review of Integrative Business and Economics, 8(1), 64-79.
- Mohd Daud, S. N., & Podivinsky, J. M. (2012). Revisiting the Role of External Debt in Economic Growth of Developing Countries. Journal of Business Economics And Management, 13(5), 968-993.
- Patillo, C., Poirson, H.& Ricci, L., (2004). What are the Channels Through which External Debt Affects Growth? International Monetary Fund.
- Pattillo, C., Poirson, H., & Ricci, L. (2002). External Debt And Growth. Washington: IMF (IMF Working Paper No. 2).
- Paudel, R. C., & Perera, N. (2009). Foreign Debt, Trade Openness, Labor Force And Economic Growth: Evidence From Sri Lanka. The ICFAI Journal of Applied Economics, 8 (1): 57-64.
- Pesaran, M. H. (2007). A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in the Presence of Cross-Section Dependence. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22, 365-312.
- Pesaran, M. H., &Yamagata, T. (2008). Testing slope homogeneity in large panels. Journal of Econometrics, 142, 50-93
- Pesaran, M. H., Ullah, A. & Yamagata, T. (2008) A Bias-adjusted LM Test of Error Crosssection Independence. Econometrics Journal, 11, 105-127.
- Qureshi, I., & Liaqat, Z. (2020). The Long-Term Consequences of External Debt: Revisiting the Evidence and Inspecting the Mechanism Using Panel VARs. Journal of Macroeconomics, 63, 103184.
- Ramzan, M., & Ahmad, E. (2014). External Debt Growth Nexus: Role of Macroeconomic Polices. Economic Modelling, 38, 204-210.
- Reinhart, C.M.& Rogoff, K. (2011). This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly. Princeton University Press, USA.
- Saad, W. (2012). Causality Between Economic Growth, Export And External Debt Servicing: the Case of Lebanon. International Journal of Economics and Finance. 4, 134–143.
- Sachs J (1989). The Debt Overhang of Developing Countries. In Debt, Stabilization and Development: Essays in Memory of Carlos Díaz Alejandro. (Oxford): Basil Blackwell, 50-529.
- Senadza, B., Fiagbe, K., & Quartey, P. (2017). The Effect of External Debt on Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa. International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), 11, 61-69.
- Seyram, S., Matuka, A., & Dominic, N. (2019). External Debt and Economic Growth: Two-Step System GMM Evidence for Sub-Saharan Africa Countries. International Journal of Business, 6, 39-48.
- Shah, M., & Pervin, S. (2012). External Public Debt and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Bangladesh, 1974 to 2010. Academic Research International, 3(2).
- Shkolnyk, I., & Koilo, V. (2018). The Relationship Between External Debt And Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Ukraine and Other Emerging Economies. Investment Management and Financial Innovations, 15(1), 387-400.
- Siddique, A., Selvanathan, E. A., & Selvanathan, S. (2016). The impact of external debt on growth: Evidence from highly indebted poor countries. Journal of Policy Modeling, 38(5), 874-894.
- Sulaiman, L.A., and Azeez, B.A., (2012), Effect of External Debt on Economic Growth of Nigeria, Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development, 3, 71-79.
- Tatoğlu, F.Y. (2017). Panel Zaman Serileri Analizi Stata Uygulamalı, 1. Baskı, Beta Yayınları, İstanbul.
- Umaru, A., Hamidu, A., & Musa, S. (2013). External Debt and Domestic Debt Impact on The Growth of The Nigerian Economy. International. Journal of Educational Research, 1, 70-85.
- Uysal, D., Özer, H.& Mucuk, M., (2009). Dış Borçlanma ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Türkiye Örneği (1965–2007). Atatürk Üniversitesi. İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 23, 161–178.
- Vamvakidis, A., (2007). External Debt and Economic Reform: Does a Pain Reliever Delay the Necessary Treatment? Working Paper No. 07/50 International Monetary Fund, Washington D.C.
- Westerlund, J. (2008). Panel Cointegration Tests of the Fisher Effect. Journal Of Applied Econometrics, 23,193-233.
- Worldbank, (2020). World Development Indicators, https://data.worldbank.org/indicator, 20.03.2020
External debt and economic growth: panel cointegration analysis under cross sectional dependency on developing countries
Yıl 2021,
Cilt: 14 Sayı: 1, 261 - 279, 08.01.2021
Halil Altıntaş
,
Erdal Alancıoğlu
Öz
This study aims to investigate the impact of external debt, capital stock and labor on economic growth over the period from 1991 to 2015 for sixteen developing and emerging countries. The panel cointegration tests suggested by Westerlund and Edgerton (2007) and Durbin-Hausman (2008) were applied to explore the long run relationship between variables. In addition, this study used the augmented mean group (AMG) tests developed by Eberhardt and Bond (2009) to provide long run estimators free from cross-sectional dependence problems. The cointegration analysis confirms the existence of the long run relationship between the underlying variables. Based on the AMG results, we found a negative and statistically significant impact of external debt on economic growth, while capital stock positively influences economic growth. On the contrary, labour does not have a significant impact on economic growth.
Kaynakça
- Adesola, W. A. (2009). Debt servicing and economic growth in Nigeria: An empirical investigation. Global Journal of Social Sciences, 8, 1-11.
- Afonso, A. & Jalles, J. T. (2013). Growth and Productivity: The Role Of Government Debt. International Review of Economics and Finance, 25, 384-407.
- Ajayi, L. B., & Oke, M. O. (2012). Effect of External Debt on Economic Growth and Development of Nigeria. International Journal of Business and Social Science, 3, 297-304.
- Ayadi, F.S & Ayadi, F.O. (2008). The Impact of External Debt on Economic Growth: A Comparative Study of Nigeria and South Africa, Journal of Sustainable Development in Africa, 10 (3), 234-264.
- Azam, M., Emirullah, C., Prabhakar, A.C., and Khan, A.Q., (2013). The Role Of External Debt in Economic Growth of Indonesia - A Blessing Or Burden?, Middle-East Journal of Scientific Research, 17 (5), 565-572.
- Bai, J. (2009). Panel Data Models With Interactive Fixed Effects”, Econometrica, 77, 1229-1279.
- Bakar, A. N. & Hassan S. (2008). Empirical evaluation on external debt of Malaysia. Int. Bus. Econ. Res. J. 7 (2), 95–108.
- Chinaemerem, O.C. & Anayochukwu, O.B. (2013). Impact of External Debt Financing on Economic Development in Nigeria. Research Journal of Finance and Accounting, 4 (4), 92–99.
- Choong, C.K., Lau, E., Liew, V.K.S. & Puah, C.H. (2010). Does Debts Foster Economic Growth? The experience of Malaysia. African Journal of Business Management, 4 (8), 1564–1575.
- Chudik, A. & Pesaran M. H. (2015). Common Correlated Effects Estimation of Heterogeneous Dynamic Panel Data Models with Weakly Exogenous Regressors, Journal of Econometrics, 188, 393-420.
- Clements, B., Bhattacharya, R., & Nguyen, T. (2003). External Debt, Public Investment, and Growth in Low-income Countries. Washington: IMF (IMF Working Paper No. 249, WP/03/249).
- Cohen, D. (1995). Large External Debt And (Slow) Domestic Growth a Theoretical Analysis. Journal Of Economic Dynamics and Control, 19(5), 1141-1163.
- Doğan, İ., & Bilgili, F. (2014). The Non-Linear Impact of High and Growing Government External Debt on Economic Growth: A Markov Regime-Switching Approach. Economic Modelling, 39, 213-220.
- Doğruel, F.& Doğruel, A.S., (2007). Foreign Debt Dynamics In Middle Income Countries. In: Proceedings of Midwest Energy Efficiency Alliance Conference. Chicago.
- Doruk, Ö. T. (2018). Dış Borçlar ve Ekonomik Büyüme: Türkiye Ekonomisinde 1970-2014 Dönemi İçin Ampirik Bir İnceleme, Maliye Dergisi. 175, 96-114.
- Eberhart M., & Bond, S.R. (2009). Cross-sectional Dependence in Non-Stationary Panel Models: A Novel Estimator. Nordic Econometric Meetings, Sweeden.
- Edo, S., Osadolor, N. E., & Dading, I. F. (2019). Growing External Debt and Declining Export: The Concurrent Impediments in Economic Growth of Sub Saharan African Countries. International Economics.
- Fosu, A. K. (1999). The External Debt Burden and Economic Growth In The 1980s: Evidence From Sub-Saharan Africa. Canadian Journal of Development Studies. 20(2), 307–318.
- Göçer, İ. (2013). Ar-Ge Harcamalarının Yüksek Teknolojili Ürün İhracatı, Dış Ticaret Dengesi ve Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkileri, Maliye Dergisi, (165), 215-240.
- Guei, K. M. (2019). External Debt and Growth in Emerging Economies. International Economic Journal. 33, 236-251.
- Hameed, A., Ashraf, H., & Chaudhary, M. A. (2008). External Debt and Its Impact on Economic and Business Growth in Pakistan. International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, 20, 132-140.
- Jayaraman, T. K. & Lau, E. (2009). Does external debt lead to economic growth in Pacific island countries. Journal of Policy Modeling, 31(2), 272-288.
- Karagöl, E. (2002). The Causality Analysis of External Debt Service and GNP: The Case of Turkey. Central Bank Review. 2 (1), 39-64.
Kasidi, F., & Said, A. M. (2013). Impact of External Debt on Economic Growth: A Case Study of Tanzania. Advances In Management and Applied Economics, 3(4), 59.
- Kharusi, S. A., & Ada, M. S. (2018). External Debt and Economic Growth: The Case of Emerging Economy. Journal of Economic Integration, 33(1), 1141-1157.
- Krugman, P (1998). Financing vs. Forgiving A Debt Overhang. Journal of development Economics, 29(3), 253-268
- Mahmoud, L. O. M. (2015). The Role of External Debt On Economic Growth: Evidence From Mauritania. International Journal of Economics & Management Sciences, 4(4), 240.
- Marobhe, M. (2019). External Debts and Economic Growth in Tanzania. Research Review of Integrative Business and Economics, 8(1), 64-79.
- Mohd Daud, S. N., & Podivinsky, J. M. (2012). Revisiting the Role of External Debt in Economic Growth of Developing Countries. Journal of Business Economics And Management, 13(5), 968-993.
- Patillo, C., Poirson, H.& Ricci, L., (2004). What are the Channels Through which External Debt Affects Growth? International Monetary Fund.
- Pattillo, C., Poirson, H., & Ricci, L. (2002). External Debt And Growth. Washington: IMF (IMF Working Paper No. 2).
- Paudel, R. C., & Perera, N. (2009). Foreign Debt, Trade Openness, Labor Force And Economic Growth: Evidence From Sri Lanka. The ICFAI Journal of Applied Economics, 8 (1): 57-64.
- Pesaran, M. H. (2007). A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in the Presence of Cross-Section Dependence. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22, 365-312.
- Pesaran, M. H., &Yamagata, T. (2008). Testing slope homogeneity in large panels. Journal of Econometrics, 142, 50-93
- Pesaran, M. H., Ullah, A. & Yamagata, T. (2008) A Bias-adjusted LM Test of Error Crosssection Independence. Econometrics Journal, 11, 105-127.
- Qureshi, I., & Liaqat, Z. (2020). The Long-Term Consequences of External Debt: Revisiting the Evidence and Inspecting the Mechanism Using Panel VARs. Journal of Macroeconomics, 63, 103184.
- Ramzan, M., & Ahmad, E. (2014). External Debt Growth Nexus: Role of Macroeconomic Polices. Economic Modelling, 38, 204-210.
- Reinhart, C.M.& Rogoff, K. (2011). This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly. Princeton University Press, USA.
- Saad, W. (2012). Causality Between Economic Growth, Export And External Debt Servicing: the Case of Lebanon. International Journal of Economics and Finance. 4, 134–143.
- Sachs J (1989). The Debt Overhang of Developing Countries. In Debt, Stabilization and Development: Essays in Memory of Carlos Díaz Alejandro. (Oxford): Basil Blackwell, 50-529.
- Senadza, B., Fiagbe, K., & Quartey, P. (2017). The Effect of External Debt on Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa. International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), 11, 61-69.
- Seyram, S., Matuka, A., & Dominic, N. (2019). External Debt and Economic Growth: Two-Step System GMM Evidence for Sub-Saharan Africa Countries. International Journal of Business, 6, 39-48.
- Shah, M., & Pervin, S. (2012). External Public Debt and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Bangladesh, 1974 to 2010. Academic Research International, 3(2).
- Shkolnyk, I., & Koilo, V. (2018). The Relationship Between External Debt And Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Ukraine and Other Emerging Economies. Investment Management and Financial Innovations, 15(1), 387-400.
- Siddique, A., Selvanathan, E. A., & Selvanathan, S. (2016). The impact of external debt on growth: Evidence from highly indebted poor countries. Journal of Policy Modeling, 38(5), 874-894.
- Sulaiman, L.A., and Azeez, B.A., (2012), Effect of External Debt on Economic Growth of Nigeria, Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development, 3, 71-79.
- Tatoğlu, F.Y. (2017). Panel Zaman Serileri Analizi Stata Uygulamalı, 1. Baskı, Beta Yayınları, İstanbul.
- Umaru, A., Hamidu, A., & Musa, S. (2013). External Debt and Domestic Debt Impact on The Growth of The Nigerian Economy. International. Journal of Educational Research, 1, 70-85.
- Uysal, D., Özer, H.& Mucuk, M., (2009). Dış Borçlanma ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Türkiye Örneği (1965–2007). Atatürk Üniversitesi. İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 23, 161–178.
- Vamvakidis, A., (2007). External Debt and Economic Reform: Does a Pain Reliever Delay the Necessary Treatment? Working Paper No. 07/50 International Monetary Fund, Washington D.C.
- Westerlund, J. (2008). Panel Cointegration Tests of the Fisher Effect. Journal Of Applied Econometrics, 23,193-233.
- Worldbank, (2020). World Development Indicators, https://data.worldbank.org/indicator, 20.03.2020