Türkiye için Piyasa Tabanlı Bir Kapasite Mekanizması Modeli

Yıl 2023, Cilt: 26 Sayı: 4, 1375 - 1392, 01.12.2023

Mehmet Ali Kölmek Tayfun Menlik

https://doi.org/10.2339/politeknik.1115044

Öz

Liberal bir elektrik sektöründeki piyasa oyuncuları, ikili anlaşmalar veya organize platformlar yoluyla enerji ticaretine tabidir. Bu platformlar aracılığıyla yalın-enerji ticareti, meşhur “kayıp para problemi” olgusu nedeniyle sistem güvenilirliği için gerekli koşulları sağlamada yetersiz kalabilir. Arzu edilmeyen yük kaybını önlemek için zamanla ilave piyasa mekanizmaları geliştirilmiştir. Bazı piyasalar, piyasa bazlı veya piyasa bazlı olmayan modeller aracılığıyla sistem güvenilirliğini güvence altına almak için kapasite fiyatlandırma mekanizmalarını geliştirmiştir. Spesifik olarak, Türkiye elektrik piyasasında düzenleyici otorite, önceden belirlenmiş koşulları yerine getiren üreticilerin kurulu kapasitelerine göre ücret aldığı “doğrudan ödeme” yaklaşımını uygulamıştır. Bu mekanizma, piyasa fiyatı oluşumuyla ilişkisi nedeniyle “yarı-piyasa temelli” bir model olarak düşünülebilir. Ancak bu model prensip olarak, kurulu güç miktarına dayalı doğrudan ödeme yapısına sahip olması nedeniyle piyasa bazlı olmayan bir model olarak kategorize edilmelidir. Bu çalışmada, Türkiye'deki mevcut kapasite fiyatlandırma mekanizması incelenmiş, alternatif bir piyasa bazlı ihale modeli geliştirilmiş ve sonuçları Monte Carlo analizi ile benzetime tabi tutulmuştur. Çalışma ayrıca, önerilen piyasa temelli modelin mevcut yaklaşıma göre karşılaştırmalı avantajlarını gösterirken önerilen modelin elektrik piyasası reform hedefleriyle tamamen uyumlu bir şekilde sistem güvenilirliğini koruma açısından mevcut duruma göre neden daha iyi bir seçenek olduğunu açıklamayı hedeflemektedir.  

Anahtar Kelimeler

Elektrik piyasaları, kapasite mekanizmaları, güvenilirlik, yeterlilik, ihaleler, Monte carlo benzetimi

A Market Based Electricity Capacity Mechanism Model for Turkey

Öz

Market players in a liberalized electricity sector are subject to trading energy through bilateral agreements or organized platforms. Energy-only trading through those venues might fall short in providing the required conditions for system reliability due to the well-known phenomenon of “missing money problem”. In order to avoid unintended loss of load, additional market mechanisms were developed in time. Several markets utilized capacity remuneration mechanisms to secure the system reliability through market-based or non-market-based models. Specifically, in Turkish electricity market, the regulator has implemented “direct payment” approach where generators fulfilling pre-determined conditions receive remunerations based on their installed capacities. This mechanism can be considered as a “quasi-market-based” model due to links to the market price formation. However, in principle, it should be categorized as a non-market-based model due to direct payments based on installed capacity levels. In this study, existing capacity remuneration mechanism in Turkey is analysed, an alternative market-based auctions model is developed and its results are simulated via Monte Carlo analysis. The study also elaborates on comparative advantages of the proposed market-based model over the existing approach and why it is a better option to preserve system reliability while being fully compliant with the electricity market reform goals.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Electricity markets, capacity mechanisms, reliability, adequacy, auctions, Monte Carlo simulation.

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