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ESNEK EN KÜÇÜK KARELER YÖNTEMİ İLE TÜRKİYE’DEKİ KAMU BORCU SÜRDÜRÜLEBİLİRLİĞİNİN DİNAMİK ANALİZİ

Yıl 2021, Sayı: 31, 129 - 144, 30.04.2021
https://doi.org/10.18092/ulikidince.827340

Öz

Bu makale, zamanla değişen (time-varying) bir perspektifte Türkiye'deki kamu borcunun sürdürülebilirliğini değerlendirmektedir. Zamanla değişen katsayılı tahminleme teknikleri, kamu borcunun sürdürülebilirliğindeki zamanlar arası değişimlerin bütün çerçevesini sergileme özelliğine sahiptir. Bu çalışma, zamanla değişen katsayılı modellerin avantajlarından yararlanmak için, esnek en küçük kareler yöntemini kullanarak bir mali tepki fonksiyonu tahminlemeyi amaçlamaktadır. Bu yöntem literatürdeki diğer modellere pratik bir alternatif olarak ön plana çıkmaktadır. Bulgular, kamu borçlarının sürdürülebilirliğinin 2000'li yılların başlarındaki bir dönüşümle sağlandığını, ancak daha sonra mali performansın kademeli olarak azaldığını göstermektedir. Son yıllarda, mali tepki parametresinin yaklaşık 20 yıllık güçlü bir seyirin ardından negatif seviyelere ulaştığı gözlemlenmektedir. Bu bulgu, gerekli tedbirlerin zamanında uygulanmaması durumunda kamu borcunun sürdürülemez hale gelebileceğini göstermektedir. Ancak, son dönemde ortaya çıkan Covid – 19 pandemisinin bu tür düzeltici politikaların kısa vadede uygulanmasını önleyen bir engel olarak ortaya çıktığı görülmektedir. Hızla artan sosyal harcamalar ve transferler kısa vadedeki toparlanmanın gerçekleşmesini önleyici rol oynayacaktır.

Kaynakça

  • Alesina, A., Campante, F. R., & Tabellini, G. (2008). Why is Fiscal Policy Often Procyclical? Journal of the European Economic Association, 6(5), 1006-1036.
  • Belguith, S., & Gabsi, F. (2017). Public Debt Sustainability in Tunisia: Empirical Evidence Estimating Time-Varying Parameters. Journal of the Knowledge Economy, 10, 550-560.
  • Bohn, H. (1995). The Sustainability of Budget Deficits in a Stochastic Economy. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 27(1), 257-71.
  • Bohn, H. (1998). The Behavior of U. S. Public Debt and Deficits. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 113(3), 949-963.
  • Bohn, H. (2007). Are Stationarity and Cointegration Restrictions Really Necessary for the Intertemporal Budget Constraint? Journal of Monetary Economics, 54(7), 1837–1847.
  • Burger, P., & Marinkov, M. (2012). Fiscal Rules and Regime-Dependent Fiscal Reaction Functions: The South African Case. OECD Journal on Budgeting, 12(1), 1-29.
  • Burger, P., Stuart, I., Jooste, C., & Cuevas, A. (2012). Fiscal Sustainability and The Fiscal Reaction Function for South Africa: Assesment of the Past and Future Policy. South African Journal of Economics, 80, 1-19.
  • Campos, E. L., & Cysne, R. P. (2019). A Time-Varying Fiscal Reaction Function for Brazil. Estudos Econômicos, 49(1), 5-38.
  • Canzoneri, M., R.E, C., & Diba, B. (2001). Is the Price Level Determined by the Needs of Fiscal Solvency? American Economic Review, 91(5), 1221-1238.
  • Domar, E. (1944). The "Burden of the Debt" and the National Income. The American Economic Review, 34(4), 798-827.
  • Fincke, B., & Greiner, A. (2011). How to assess debt sustainability? Some theory and empirical evidence for selected euro area countries. Applied Economics, 44(28), 3717-3724. Greiner, A., & Fincke, B. (2009). Public Debt and Economic Growth. Berlin: Springer.
  • Greiner, A., & Fincke, B. (2015). Public Debt, Sustainability and Economic Growth: Theory and Empirics. London: Springer International Publishing.
  • Jha, R. (2012). Analytical Approaches to Assessing Public Debt Sustainability. In B. Ferrarini, J. R., & A. Ramayandi, Public Debt Sustainability in Developing Asia (pp. 14-43). Oxfordshire: Routledge.
  • Kalaba, Robert, E, Tesfatsion, L. (1989), Time-Varying Linear Regression Via Flexible Least Squares, Computers and Mathematics With Applications vol. 17 no. 08/09/09, pp. 1215-1245.
  • Nguyen, T., Suardi, S., & Chua, C. (2016). The Behaviour of U.S Public Debt and Deficits During The Global Financial Crisis. Contemporary Economic Policy, 35(1), 201-215. Ravn, M. O., & Uhlig, H. (2002). On Adjusting The Hodrick-Prescott Filter for the Frequency of Observations. The Review of Economics an

A TIME-VARYING ANALYSIS OF THE PUBLIC DEBT SUSTAINABILITY IN TURKEY WITH FLEXIBLE LEAST SQUARES TECHNIQUE

Yıl 2021, Sayı: 31, 129 - 144, 30.04.2021
https://doi.org/10.18092/ulikidince.827340

Öz

This paper gauges the sustainability of public debt in Turkey from a time-varying perspective. The time-varying estimation techniques exhibit the whole portrait of intertemporal variations in the sustainability of public debt. To reap the benefit of time-varying models, we estimated a fiscal reaction function using the flexible least squares method. This method is a practical alternative to the other approaches in the literature. The results suggest that public debt sustainability has been established in Turkey through a transformation in the early 2000s but thereafter the fiscal performance has waned gradually. In recent years, the fiscal reaction parameter has hit negative levels after some 20 years of sturdiness. This finding indicates that the public debt is likely to become unsustainable should no necessary measures are promptly implemented. Nevertheless, the Covid – 19 pandemic appears to be an unexpected and important source of an impediment for the government to achieve short-run stabilization goals by skyrocketing social expenditures and transfers.

Kaynakça

  • Alesina, A., Campante, F. R., & Tabellini, G. (2008). Why is Fiscal Policy Often Procyclical? Journal of the European Economic Association, 6(5), 1006-1036.
  • Belguith, S., & Gabsi, F. (2017). Public Debt Sustainability in Tunisia: Empirical Evidence Estimating Time-Varying Parameters. Journal of the Knowledge Economy, 10, 550-560.
  • Bohn, H. (1995). The Sustainability of Budget Deficits in a Stochastic Economy. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 27(1), 257-71.
  • Bohn, H. (1998). The Behavior of U. S. Public Debt and Deficits. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 113(3), 949-963.
  • Bohn, H. (2007). Are Stationarity and Cointegration Restrictions Really Necessary for the Intertemporal Budget Constraint? Journal of Monetary Economics, 54(7), 1837–1847.
  • Burger, P., & Marinkov, M. (2012). Fiscal Rules and Regime-Dependent Fiscal Reaction Functions: The South African Case. OECD Journal on Budgeting, 12(1), 1-29.
  • Burger, P., Stuart, I., Jooste, C., & Cuevas, A. (2012). Fiscal Sustainability and The Fiscal Reaction Function for South Africa: Assesment of the Past and Future Policy. South African Journal of Economics, 80, 1-19.
  • Campos, E. L., & Cysne, R. P. (2019). A Time-Varying Fiscal Reaction Function for Brazil. Estudos Econômicos, 49(1), 5-38.
  • Canzoneri, M., R.E, C., & Diba, B. (2001). Is the Price Level Determined by the Needs of Fiscal Solvency? American Economic Review, 91(5), 1221-1238.
  • Domar, E. (1944). The "Burden of the Debt" and the National Income. The American Economic Review, 34(4), 798-827.
  • Fincke, B., & Greiner, A. (2011). How to assess debt sustainability? Some theory and empirical evidence for selected euro area countries. Applied Economics, 44(28), 3717-3724. Greiner, A., & Fincke, B. (2009). Public Debt and Economic Growth. Berlin: Springer.
  • Greiner, A., & Fincke, B. (2015). Public Debt, Sustainability and Economic Growth: Theory and Empirics. London: Springer International Publishing.
  • Jha, R. (2012). Analytical Approaches to Assessing Public Debt Sustainability. In B. Ferrarini, J. R., & A. Ramayandi, Public Debt Sustainability in Developing Asia (pp. 14-43). Oxfordshire: Routledge.
  • Kalaba, Robert, E, Tesfatsion, L. (1989), Time-Varying Linear Regression Via Flexible Least Squares, Computers and Mathematics With Applications vol. 17 no. 08/09/09, pp. 1215-1245.
  • Nguyen, T., Suardi, S., & Chua, C. (2016). The Behaviour of U.S Public Debt and Deficits During The Global Financial Crisis. Contemporary Economic Policy, 35(1), 201-215. Ravn, M. O., & Uhlig, H. (2002). On Adjusting The Hodrick-Prescott Filter for the Frequency of Observations. The Review of Economics an
Toplam 15 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Konular Ekonomi
Bölüm MAKALELER
Yazarlar

Cansın Kemal Can 0000-0001-5365-0937

Yayımlanma Tarihi 30 Nisan 2021
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2021 Sayı: 31

Kaynak Göster

APA Can, C. K. (2021). A TIME-VARYING ANALYSIS OF THE PUBLIC DEBT SUSTAINABILITY IN TURKEY WITH FLEXIBLE LEAST SQUARES TECHNIQUE. Uluslararası İktisadi Ve İdari İncelemeler Dergisi(31), 129-144. https://doi.org/10.18092/ulikidince.827340


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