Araştırma Makalesi
BibTex RIS Kaynak Göster

Asymmetric Effect Of Oil Prices On Economic Growth: Evidence From Turkey

Yıl 2019, , 266 - 279, 30.06.2019
https://doi.org/10.33905/bseusbed.480869

Öz

This
study investigates the impact of changes in oil prices on the real economic
activity of Turkey. For this purpose, we employ Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed
Lags (NARDL) model which enables us to test the short-run and long-run
asymmetries concurrently and allows us to measure the corresponding reaction of
economic growth to changes in its regressors. The empirical results confirm the
asymmetric effect of oil price changes on economic growth. Particularly, rises
in oil prices have a negative influence on economic growth in the long run and
this impact has a larger magnitude relative to declines in oil prices which are
found to be statistically insignificant. That is to say, the output growth does
not respond to the reductions in oil
prices but rises in oil prices. 

Kaynakça

  • Brown, Stephen P. A. and Mine Yücel (2002) “Energy Prices and Aggregate Economic Activity: an Interpretative Survey”, Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 42 (2), pp. 193–08.
  • Burbidge, John and Alan Harrison (1984) “Testing for the Effects of Oil Price Rises Using Vector Autoregressions”, International Economic Review, 25, pp. 459-484.
  • Carruth, Alan A., Mark A. Hooker and Andrew J. Oswald (998) “Unemployment Equilibria and Input Prices: Theory and Evidence from the United States”, Review of Economics and Statistics, 80 (4), pp. 621-628.
  • Cologni, Alessandro and Matteo Manera (2009) “The Asymmetric Effects of Oil Shocks on Output Growth: A Markov-Switching Analysis for the G-7 Countries”, Economic Modelling, 26 (1), pp. 1-29.
  • Cunado, Juncal and Fernando Perez de Garcia (2005) “Oil Prices, Economic Activity and Inflation: Evidence for Some Asian Countries”, The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 45 (1), pp. 65-83.
  • Engemann, Kristie M., Kevin Kliesen and Michael Owyang (2010) “Do Oil Shocks Drive Business Cycles? Some U.S. and International Evidence”, Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  • Greenwood-Nimmo, Matthew, Yongcheol Shin and Till van Treeck (2011) “The Nonlinear ARDL Model with Multiple Unknown Threshold Decompositions: An Application to the Phillips Curve in Canada”, Mimeo: Leeds University Business School.
  • Gujarati, Damodar N. (1995) Basic Econometrics, Mcgraw-Hill, New York.
  • Hamilton, James D. (1996) “This is What Happened to the Oil Price - Macroeconomy Relationship?”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 3(2), pp. 215-220.
  • Hamilton, James D. (2003) “What is an Oil Shock?” Journal of Econometrics, 113, pp. 363-398.
  • Hamilton, James D. (1983) “Oil and the Macroeconomy Since World War II”, Journal of Political Economy, 91, pp. 228-248.
  • Hooker, Mark A. (1996) “What Happened to the Oil Price - Macroeconomy Relationship?”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 38(2), pp. 195-213.
  • Jiménez-Rodríguez, Rebeca (2008) “The Impact of Oil Price Shocks: Evidence from the Industries of Six OECD Countries”, Energy Economics, 30(6), pp. 3095–3108.
  • Jiménez-Rodríguez, Rebeca and Marcelo Sánchez (2005) “Oil Price Shocks and Real GDP Growth: Empirical Evidence for some OECD Countries”, Applied Economics, 37 (2), pp. 201-228.
  • Jiménez-Rodríguez, Rebeca and Marcelo Sánchez (2012) “Oil Price Shocks and Japanese Macroeconomic Developments”, Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, 26 (1), pp. 69-83.
  • Kilian, Lutz (2008) “The Economic Effects of Energy Price Shocks”, Journal of Economic Literature, 46 (4), pp. 871–909.
  • Kilian, Lutz and Robert J. Vigfusson (2009) “Are the Responses of the U.S. Economy Asymmetric in Energy Price Increases and Decreases?”, Working Paper, University of Michigan.
  • Kim, In-Moo and Prakash Loungani (1992) “The Role of Energy in Real Business Cycle Models”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 29 (2), pp. 173-189.
  • Lee, Kiseok, Shawn Ni and Ronald A. Ratti (1995) “Oil Shocks and the Macroeconomy: The Role of Price Variability”, Energy Journal, 16, pp. 39-56.
  • Lian, An, Jin Xiaoze and Ren Xiaomei (2014) “Are the Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Price Shock Symmetric? A Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive Approach”, Energy Economics, 45: 217-228.
  • Mork, Knut Anton, Oystein Olsen and Hans Terje Mysen (1994) “Macroeconomic Responses to Oil Price Increases and Decreases in seven OECD Countries”, Energy Journal, 15, pp. 19-35.
  • Mork, Knut Anton (1989) “Oil and the Macroeconomy When Prices Go Up and Down: An Extension of Hamilton’s Results”, Journal of Political Economy, 91, pp. 740-744.
  • Mory, Javier F. (1993) “Oil Prices and Economic Activity: Is the Relationship Symmetric?” Energy Journal, 14, pp. 151–161.
  • Narayan, Paresh (2005) “The Saving and Investment Nexus for China: Evidence from Cointegration Tests”, Applied Economics, 37, pp. 1979–1990.
  • Pesaran, Hashem and Yungcheol Shin (1999) “An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modeling Approach to Cointegration Analysis”, in S. Strom (eds.) Econometrics and Economic Theory in the 20th Century, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
  • Pesaran, Hashem, Yungcheol Shin and Richard J. Smith (2001) “Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16, pp. 289–326.
  • Rasche, Robert H. and John A. Tatom (1977) “Energy Resources and Potential GNP”, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, 59, pp. 10-24.
  • Rasche, Robert H. and John A. Tatom (1981) “Energy Price Shocks, Aggregate Supply and Monetary Policy: the Theory and the International Evidence”, in K. Brunner and A. H. Meltzer (eds.): Supply Shocks, Incentives and National Wealth, Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy 14, pp. 9-93.
  • Rotemberg, Julio J. and Michael Woodford (1996) “Imperfect Competition and the Effects of Energy Price Increases on Economic Activity”, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 28 (4), pp. 549– 77.
  • Shin, Yongcheol, Byungcheol Yu and Matthew Greenwood-Nimmo (2011) “Modeling Asymmetric Cointegration and Dynamic Multipliers in an ARDL Framework”, in William C. Horrace and Robin C. Sickles (eds.): Festschrift in Honor of Peter Schmidt, Springer Science & Business Media, New York.
  • World Bank (1989) World Development Report, Oxford University Press, New York.

Petrol Fiyatlarının İktisadi Büyüme Üzerindeki Asimetrik Etkisi: Türkiye Örneği

Yıl 2019, , 266 - 279, 30.06.2019
https://doi.org/10.33905/bseusbed.480869

Öz

Bu çalışma, petrol fiyatlarındaki değişimlerin Türkiye'nin reel ekonomik
aktivitesi üzerindeki etkisini araştırmaktadır.
Bu amaçla, kısa ve uzun
dönemli asimetrilerin eşzamanlı olarak test edilmesine imkan veren ve ekonomik
büyümenin açıklayıcı değişkenlerdeki değişimlere reaksiyonunun ölçülmesine olanak
sağlayan Doğrusal Olmayan Gecikmesi Dağıtılmış Otoregresif (NARDL) modeli
kullanılmıştır.
Ampirik sonuçlar, petrol fiyatlarındaki değişikliklerin ekonomik büyüme
üzerindeki asimetrik etkisini doğrulamaktadır. Özellikle, petrol fiyatlarındaki
artışların uzun dönemde ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisi negatif olmakla
birlikte bu etkinin şiddeti petrol fiyatlarındaki düşüşlerin etkisine oranla
daha büyüktür ve ayrıca modelde petrol fiyatlarındaki düşüşlerin etkisi
istatistiksel olarak anlamsız bulunmuştur.
Bir başka deyişle, iktisadi büyüme petrol fiyatlarındaki
düşüşlere tepki göstermezken, petrol fiyatlarındaki artışlara tepki
vermektedir.

Kaynakça

  • Brown, Stephen P. A. and Mine Yücel (2002) “Energy Prices and Aggregate Economic Activity: an Interpretative Survey”, Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 42 (2), pp. 193–08.
  • Burbidge, John and Alan Harrison (1984) “Testing for the Effects of Oil Price Rises Using Vector Autoregressions”, International Economic Review, 25, pp. 459-484.
  • Carruth, Alan A., Mark A. Hooker and Andrew J. Oswald (998) “Unemployment Equilibria and Input Prices: Theory and Evidence from the United States”, Review of Economics and Statistics, 80 (4), pp. 621-628.
  • Cologni, Alessandro and Matteo Manera (2009) “The Asymmetric Effects of Oil Shocks on Output Growth: A Markov-Switching Analysis for the G-7 Countries”, Economic Modelling, 26 (1), pp. 1-29.
  • Cunado, Juncal and Fernando Perez de Garcia (2005) “Oil Prices, Economic Activity and Inflation: Evidence for Some Asian Countries”, The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 45 (1), pp. 65-83.
  • Engemann, Kristie M., Kevin Kliesen and Michael Owyang (2010) “Do Oil Shocks Drive Business Cycles? Some U.S. and International Evidence”, Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  • Greenwood-Nimmo, Matthew, Yongcheol Shin and Till van Treeck (2011) “The Nonlinear ARDL Model with Multiple Unknown Threshold Decompositions: An Application to the Phillips Curve in Canada”, Mimeo: Leeds University Business School.
  • Gujarati, Damodar N. (1995) Basic Econometrics, Mcgraw-Hill, New York.
  • Hamilton, James D. (1996) “This is What Happened to the Oil Price - Macroeconomy Relationship?”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 3(2), pp. 215-220.
  • Hamilton, James D. (2003) “What is an Oil Shock?” Journal of Econometrics, 113, pp. 363-398.
  • Hamilton, James D. (1983) “Oil and the Macroeconomy Since World War II”, Journal of Political Economy, 91, pp. 228-248.
  • Hooker, Mark A. (1996) “What Happened to the Oil Price - Macroeconomy Relationship?”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 38(2), pp. 195-213.
  • Jiménez-Rodríguez, Rebeca (2008) “The Impact of Oil Price Shocks: Evidence from the Industries of Six OECD Countries”, Energy Economics, 30(6), pp. 3095–3108.
  • Jiménez-Rodríguez, Rebeca and Marcelo Sánchez (2005) “Oil Price Shocks and Real GDP Growth: Empirical Evidence for some OECD Countries”, Applied Economics, 37 (2), pp. 201-228.
  • Jiménez-Rodríguez, Rebeca and Marcelo Sánchez (2012) “Oil Price Shocks and Japanese Macroeconomic Developments”, Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, 26 (1), pp. 69-83.
  • Kilian, Lutz (2008) “The Economic Effects of Energy Price Shocks”, Journal of Economic Literature, 46 (4), pp. 871–909.
  • Kilian, Lutz and Robert J. Vigfusson (2009) “Are the Responses of the U.S. Economy Asymmetric in Energy Price Increases and Decreases?”, Working Paper, University of Michigan.
  • Kim, In-Moo and Prakash Loungani (1992) “The Role of Energy in Real Business Cycle Models”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 29 (2), pp. 173-189.
  • Lee, Kiseok, Shawn Ni and Ronald A. Ratti (1995) “Oil Shocks and the Macroeconomy: The Role of Price Variability”, Energy Journal, 16, pp. 39-56.
  • Lian, An, Jin Xiaoze and Ren Xiaomei (2014) “Are the Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Price Shock Symmetric? A Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive Approach”, Energy Economics, 45: 217-228.
  • Mork, Knut Anton, Oystein Olsen and Hans Terje Mysen (1994) “Macroeconomic Responses to Oil Price Increases and Decreases in seven OECD Countries”, Energy Journal, 15, pp. 19-35.
  • Mork, Knut Anton (1989) “Oil and the Macroeconomy When Prices Go Up and Down: An Extension of Hamilton’s Results”, Journal of Political Economy, 91, pp. 740-744.
  • Mory, Javier F. (1993) “Oil Prices and Economic Activity: Is the Relationship Symmetric?” Energy Journal, 14, pp. 151–161.
  • Narayan, Paresh (2005) “The Saving and Investment Nexus for China: Evidence from Cointegration Tests”, Applied Economics, 37, pp. 1979–1990.
  • Pesaran, Hashem and Yungcheol Shin (1999) “An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modeling Approach to Cointegration Analysis”, in S. Strom (eds.) Econometrics and Economic Theory in the 20th Century, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
  • Pesaran, Hashem, Yungcheol Shin and Richard J. Smith (2001) “Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16, pp. 289–326.
  • Rasche, Robert H. and John A. Tatom (1977) “Energy Resources and Potential GNP”, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, 59, pp. 10-24.
  • Rasche, Robert H. and John A. Tatom (1981) “Energy Price Shocks, Aggregate Supply and Monetary Policy: the Theory and the International Evidence”, in K. Brunner and A. H. Meltzer (eds.): Supply Shocks, Incentives and National Wealth, Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy 14, pp. 9-93.
  • Rotemberg, Julio J. and Michael Woodford (1996) “Imperfect Competition and the Effects of Energy Price Increases on Economic Activity”, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 28 (4), pp. 549– 77.
  • Shin, Yongcheol, Byungcheol Yu and Matthew Greenwood-Nimmo (2011) “Modeling Asymmetric Cointegration and Dynamic Multipliers in an ARDL Framework”, in William C. Horrace and Robin C. Sickles (eds.): Festschrift in Honor of Peter Schmidt, Springer Science & Business Media, New York.
  • World Bank (1989) World Development Report, Oxford University Press, New York.
Toplam 31 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Konular İşletme
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Muhammed Benli 0000-0001-6486-8739

Halil Altıntaş

Muhittin Kaplan

Yayımlanma Tarihi 30 Haziran 2019
Gönderilme Tarihi 9 Kasım 2018
Kabul Tarihi 24 Mayıs 2019
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2019

Kaynak Göster

APA Benli, M., Altıntaş, H., & Kaplan, M. (2019). Asymmetric Effect Of Oil Prices On Economic Growth: Evidence From Turkey. Bilecik Şeyh Edebali Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 4(1), 266-279. https://doi.org/10.33905/bseusbed.480869