Is Turkish Lira Real Exchange Rate in Equilibrium?

Öz

Real exchange rate is an important variable affecting many macroeconomic indicators. In this study, long run equilibrium value of Turkish Lira is estimated and how far away is TL real exchange rate from its equilibrium value is examined. Long run cointegration relationship is estimated using fully modified ordinary least squares. Dependent variable is real exchange rate of TL and independent variables are “relative unit labor costs of OECD countries and Turkey”, “foreing capital inflows to Turkey”, “GDP of Turkey”, “foreign trade volume/GDP ratio”. Regression results approve Balassa-Samuelson effect for Turkey, increase in GDP of Turkey affects TL real exchange rate in the appreciation direction. Rise in foreign trade volume appreciates TL. Increasing capital inflows, puts appreciation pressure on TL. An increase in relative unit labor costs of OECD countries in comparison to Turkey’s, by decreasing competitive power of OECD countries, causes depreciation in TL. Results of the analysis show that, TL real exchange rate is close to its equilibrium value in the last period. Article also aim to open a discussion about whether it is advisable to do policy intervention to the equilibrium value of real exchange rate

Anahtar Kelimeler

• FMOLS, real exchage rate, equilibrium, balassa-samuelson effect

Türk Lirası Reel Kuru Denge Değerinde Mi?

Öz

Reel kur çok sayıda makroekonomik değişkeni etkileyen önemli bir göstergedir. Bu çalışmada Türk Lirası reel kurunun uzun dönemli denge değeri ve bu denge değerinden ne kadar uzakta olduğu ekonometrik olarak incelenmiştir. Tamamen Değiştirilmiş En Küçük Kareler Yöntemi (FMOLS) kullanılarak oluşturulan uzun vadeli modelde, reel kur bağımlı değişken olarak ve “Türkiye ve OECD Ülkelerinin Göreli Birim İş Gücü Maliyetleri”, “Türkiye’ye Yurt Dışından Sermaye Akımları”, “Türkiye’nin GSYH’sı”, “Dış Ticaret Hacmi/GSYH Oranı” bağımsız değişkenler olarak alınmıştır. Regresyon analizinin sonuçları, Balassa-Samuelson etkisini doğrulamaktadır; Türkiye’nin büyüme oranının artması reel kura değerlenme yönünde etki etmektedir. Dış Ticaret Hacminde meydana gelen artış TL’yi değer kazandırma yönünde etkilemektedir. Türkiye’ye yurt dışından sermaye girişlerinin TL’de değerlenme baskısı yarattığı görülmektedir. OECD ülkelerinin Türkiye’ye göreli olarak iş gücü maliyetlerinin artışı reel kura değer kaybettirmekte, söz konusu ülkelerin rekabet gücünün azalmasına, Türkiye’nin rekabet gücünün ise artışına yol açmaktadır. Analiz sonuçları, son dönemde TL reel kurunun denge değerine yakın seviyelerde olduğunu göstermektedir. Makale, kurun denge değerine politika müdahalesi yapılıp yapılmaması konusunu da tartışmaya açmaktadır

Anahtar Kelimeler

• FMOLS, reel kur, denge, balassa-samuelson etkisi

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