Future of European Security Policies: Is Geopolitical Europe Possible?

Year 2024, , 229 - 259, 27.03.2024

Çiğdem Üstün , Ahmet K. Han

https://doi.org/10.32450/aacd.1439529

Abstract

Since the aftermath of World War II, the pursuit of European autonomy in ensuring its security began with the 1950s French proposal for a pan-European defense force, though never realized. The Lisbon Treaty facilitated Union representation as a legal entity and introduced Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO) to deepen defense ties. Geopolitical ambitions increased with von Der Leyen's 2019 call for a Geopolitical Commission, preceding the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Global geopolitical shifts amplify the need for a robust European role. However, EU's historical struggle in forging a strong security policy fuels skepticism. This study assesses the EU's foreign policy in the Mediterranean and Black Sea amidst regional turmoil, employing a neo-classical realist lens and a global perspective.

Keywords

Mediterranean, Black Sea, EU, Neo-Classical Realism, Geopolitical

References

• Ansani, Andrea and Vittorio Daniele, “About a Revolution: The Economic Motivations of the Arab Spring”, International Journal of Development and Conflict, 2, no 3, (2012): 1250013-1.
• Barron, Kiegan. “The Annexation of Crimea and EU Sanctions: An Ineffective Response”, The Arbutus Review, 13, No. 1, (2022): 120 – 131.
• Bauhr, Monika and Nicholas Charron, “All hands-on deck’ or separate lifeboats? Public support for European economic solidarity during the Covid-19 pandemic”, Journal of European Public Policy, 30, No 6, (2023): 1092-1118.
• Baun, Michael and Dan Marek, “Making Europe Defend Again: The Relaunch of European Defense Cooperation from a Neoclassical Realist Perspective”, Czech Journal of International Relations, vol 54, no 4 (2019): 27 – 46. Bayer, Lili. “Meet von der Leyen’s ‘geopolitical Commission’”, Politico, December 4, 2019, Accessed: August 2, 2023, https://www.politico.eu/article/meet-ursula-von-der-leyen-geopolitical-commission/
• BBC News, “Egypt President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi: Ruler with an iron grip”, December 1, 2020, Accessed: August 2, 2023, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-19256730. Brumberg, Daniel. “The trap of liberalized autocracy”, Journal of Democracy, 13, no 4 (October 2002): 56-68.
• Bouris, Dimitris and Anis Nacrour, “The Ins and Outs of the EU’s Shortcomings in Syria”, EuroMed Survey Changing Euro- Mediterranean Lenses, IEMed, Accessed: August 2, 2023, https://www.iemed.org/publication/the-ins-and-outs-of-the-eus-shortcomings-in-syria/ CEIC Data, “Egypt Foreign Direct Investment: Inflow: European Union (EU) 2021- 2022”, Accessed: August 2, 2023 https://www.ceicdata.com/en/egypt/foreign-direct-investment-by-country/foreign-direct-investment-inflow-european-union-eu.
• Chastand, Jean Baptiste. “Behind hostile immigration propaganda, Hungary welcomes foreign workers”, Le Monde, May 20, 2023, Accessed: August 2, 2023, https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2023/05/20/in-hungary-the-reality-of-immigration-lies-behind-hostile-propaganda_6027301_4.html Colantone, Italo and Piero Stanig, “The Surge of Economic Nationalism in Western Europe”, The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 33, No. 4 (Fall 2019): 128-151.
• Council of the European Union, “Infographic - EU sanctions in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine”, Accessed: August 2, 2023, https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/infographics/eu-sanctions-russia-ukraine-invasion/
• Council of the EU. "Turkey’s Illegal Drilling Activities in the Eastern Mediterranean: EU Puts Two Persons on Sanctions List.” February 27, 2020. Accessed: September 27, 2023. https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2020/02/27/turkey-s-illegal-drilling-activities-in-the-eastern-mediterranean-eu-puts-two-persons-on-sanctions-list/.
• Council of the European Union, “Syria: Council extends sanctions against the regime for another year”, May 31, 2022 https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2022/05/31/syria-council-extends-sanctions-against-the-regime-for-another-year/ Council of the European Union, “EU sanctions against Russia explained” , Accessed: August 2, 2023, https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/sanctions/restrictive-measures-against-russia-over-ukraine/sanctions-against-russia-explained/#sanctions
• Council of the European Union, “European Council conclusions”, June 28, 2018, Accessed: August 2, 2023, https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2018/06/29/20180628-euco-conclusions-final/
• Council of the European Union, “EU-Turkey Statement”, March 18, 2016, Accessed: August 2, 2023, https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2016/03/18/eu-turkey-statement/
• Council of the European Union, “African Union-European Union summit - Joint statement on the migrant situation in Libya”, December 1, 2017, Accessed: August 2, 2023, https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2017/12/01/au-eu-summit-joint-statement-on-the-migrant-situation-in-libya/
• Delegation of the European Union to Egypt, “The European Union and Egypt”, July 28, 2021, Accessed: August 2, 2023 https://www.eeas.europa.eu/egypt/european-union-and-egypt_en?s=95. Delegation of the European Union to the Republic of Kazakhstan, “Syria: ten years on we still need a political solution that addresses the root causes of the conflict”, March 31, 2021, Accessed: August 2, 2023, https://www.eeas.europa.eu/eeas/syria-ten-years-we-still-need-political-solution-addresses-root-causes-conflict_en?s=222
• Dyson, Tom. Neoclassical realism and defence reform in Post-Cold War Europe, (Basingstoke:Palgrave Macmillan, 2010).
• Eljarh, Mohamed. “Is Europe Exporting Instability to the Southern Mediterranean? Libya as a Case Study”, Euromed Survey Changing Euro-Mediterranean Lenses, Accessed: August 2, 2023, https://www.iemed.org/publication/is-europe-exporting-instability-to-the-southern-mediterranean-libya-as-a-case-study/
• Eurobarometer, “Resilience and Recovery Public opinion one year into the pandemic”, Spring 2021, Accessed: August 2, 2023, https://www.europarl.europa.eu/at-your-service/en/be-heard/eurobarometer/spring-2021-survey
• Euromed Rights, “EU welcomes Egypt’s President al-Sisi: when human rights do not matter”, March 3, 2022, Accessed: August 2, 2023 https://euromedrights.org/publication/eu-welcomes-egypts-president-al-sisi-when-human-rights-do-not-matter/.
• European Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid Operations, “About”, European Commission, Accessed: August 2, 2023, https://commission.europa.eu/about-european-commission/departments-and-executive-agencies/european-civil-protection-and-humanitarian-aid-operations_en
• European Commission, “EU's response to the “Arab Spring”: The State-of-Play after Two Years”, February 8, 2013, Accessed: August 2, 2023, https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/de/MEMO_13_81
• European Commission, “EU Response to the Syrian Crisis”, Accessed: August 2, 2023, https://www.eeas.europa.eu/sites/default/files/factsheet_syria_digital-final.pdf
• European Commission, “2013 – 2017 Action Plan”, 2012, Accessed: August 2, 2023, https://eeas.europa.eu/sites/eeas/files/plan_action_tunisie_ue_2013_2017_fr_0.pdf European Commission, “European Neighbourhood Policy and Enlargement Negotiations (DG NEAR), Tunisia”, Accessed: August 2, 2023 https://neighbourhood-enlargement.ec.europa.eu/european-neighbourhood-policy/countries-region/tunisia_en European Commission, “Renewed Partnership with the Southern Neighbourhood Economic and Investment Plan for the Southern Neighbours”, February 9, 2021, Accessed: August 2, 2023 https://eeas.europa.eu/sites/default/files/joint_staff_working_document_renewed_partnership_southern_neighbourhood.pdf European Commission, “European Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid Operations, Libya Fact sheet”, Accessed: August 2, 2023, https://civil-protection-humanitarian-aid.ec.europa.eu/where/africa/libya_en# how-are-we-helping
• European Commission, “Foreign Policy Instruments”, Accessed: August 2, 2023, https://commission.europa.eu/about-european-commission/departments-and-executive-agencies/foreign-policy-instruments_en#:~:text=The%20Service%20for%20Foreign%20Policy%20Instruments%20is%20reporting%20directly%20to,the%20most%20coherent%20and%20effective.
• European Commission, “Neighbourhood, Development and International Cooperation Instrument – Global Europe (NDICI – Global Europe)”, Accessed: August 2, 2023, https://neighbourhood-enlargement.ec.europa.eu/funding-and-technical-assistance/neighbourhood-development-and-international-cooperation-instrument-global-europe-ndici-global-europe_en European Commission, “EU Solidarity with Ukraine”, Accessed: August 2, 2023, https://eu-solidarity-ukraine.ec.europa.eu/eu-assistance-ukraine_en#support-for-military-equipment-and-training
• European Council, “Declaration on behalf of the European Union on the presidential elections in Egypt”, June 5, 2014 Accessed: August 2, 2023, https://www.consilium.europa.eu/uedocs/cms_data/docs/pressdata/EN/foraff/143096.pdf
• European Council, “Remarks by President of the European Council Herman Van Rompuy after his meeting with president of Egypt Mohamed Morsi”, January 13, 2013, Accessed: August 2, 2023, https://www.consilium.europa.eu/media/26169/134655.pdf
• European Union External Action, “A Strategic Compass for Security and Defence”, March 24, 2022, Accessed: August 2, 2023, https://www.eeas.europa.eu/eeas/strategic-compass-security-and-defence-1_en
• European Union External Action Service, “A Strategic Compass for Security and Defence”, March 24, 2022, Accessed: August 2, 2023, https://www.eeas.europa.eu/eeas/strategic-compass-security-and-defence-1_en
• European Union Press Release, “Crisis in Libya: European Commission Allocates €3 Million to Address Humanitarian Needs”, Brussels, February 25, 2011, Accessed: August 2, 2023, http://europa.eu/rapid/pressReleasesAction.do?reference=IP/11/228 FAO, “World food prices reach new historic peak”, Accessed: August 2, 2023, https://www.fao.org/news/story/en/item/50519/icode/. Financial Action Task Force (FATF), “Financing of the Terrorist Organisation Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL)”, February 2015, Accessed: August 2, 2023, https://www.fatf-gafi.org/content/dam/fatf-gafi/reports/Financing-of-the-terrorist-organisation-ISIL.pdf Fiott, Daniel. “The Fog of War: Russia's War on Ukraine, European Defence Spending and Military Capabilities”, Intereconomics, 57, no 3, (2022): 154 Gardner, Andrew. “EU ‘congratulates’ el-Sisi”, Politico, June 6, 2014, Accessed: August 2, 2023 https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-congratulates-el-sisi/.
• Geert Wilders Weblog, The Netherlands Ours Again, Preliminary Election Program 2017-2021, Accessed: August 2, 2023, https://www.geertwilders.nl/index.php/94-english/2007-preliminary-election-program-pvv-2017-2021
• Genschel, Philipp. “Bellicist integration? The war in Ukraine, the European Union and core state Powers”, Journal of European Public Policy, 29, no 12 (2022): 1885-1900.
• Han, Ahmet K. "An Indecent Proposal? The Issue of Syrian Refugees and EU-Turkey Relations." ISPI Commentary, November 2, 2015. Accessed: September 27, 2023. https://www.ispionline.it/en/publication/indecent-proposal-issue-syrian-refugees-and-eu-turkey-relations-14099.
• Kitchen, Nicholas. “Systemic Pressures and Domestic Ideas: a Neoclassical Realist Model of Grand Strategy Formation”, Review of International Studies, 36, No. 1 (January 2010): 117-143.
• Kotb, Ahmed. “Egypt's exports to European Union doubled in 2022, says head of EU Delegation”, AhramOnline, December 15, 2022, Accessed: August 2, 2023, https://english.ahram.org.eg/News/482653.aspx
• Kuperman, Alan J. “Obama's Libya Debacle: How a Well-Meaning Intervention Ended in Failure”, Foreign Affairs, 94, no 2 (March/April 2015): 66-77. Laub, Zachary. “Syria’s Civil War: The Descent into Horror”, Council on Foreign Relations, February 14, 2023, Accessed: August 2, 2023, https://www.cfr.org/article/syrias-civil-war
• Lister, Charles. “Is the EU Starting to Wobble on Freezing Out Assad?”, Foreign Policy, October 27, 2022, Accessed: August 2, 2023, https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/10/27/eu-syria-policy-assad-migration/
• Litera, Bohuslav. "The Kozyrev Doctrine - a Russian Variation on the Monroe Doctrine." Perspectives, no. 4 (1994): 45-52. Morgenthau, Hans. Politics Among Nations: The Struggle for Power and Peace, New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 1948.
• Murthy, CSR. “United Nations and the Arab Spring: Role in Libya, Syria, and Yemen”, Contemporary Review of the Middle East, 5, no 2, (2018): 116–36.
• Nasralla, Shadia. “Egypt designates Muslim Brotherhood as terrorist group”, Reuters, December 25, 2013, Accessed: August 2, 2023, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-egypt-explosion-brotherhood-idUSBRE9BO08H20131225
• NATO, “Enlargement and Article 10”, July 25, 2023, Accessed: August 2, 2023, https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_49212.htm
• NATO, “Vilnius Summit Communiqué”, July 11, 2023, Accessed: August 2, 2023, https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_217320.htm
• Natorski, Michal and Karolina Pomorska, “Trust and Decision-making in Times of Crisis: The EU’s Response to the Events in Ukraine”, Journal of Common Market Studies, 55 no 1, (2017): 54-70.
• Nováky, Niklas I.M. “Who wants to pay more? The European Union's military operations and the dispute over financial burden sharing”, European Security, 25, no 2, (2016): 216-236. Nix, Stephen B. “Responding to the Russian invasion of Crimea: policy recommendations for US and European leaders”, European View, 13, (2014): 143–152. Official Journal of the European Union, "Council Decision 2014/145/CFSP." March 17, 2014. Accessed: September 27, 2023. http://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2014:078:0016:0021:EN:PDF Pew Research, “The New Sick Man of Europe: the European Union”, Accessed: August 2, 2023, https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2013/05/13/the-new-sick-man-of-europe-the-european-union/.
• Pew Research, “Western Europeans more content with EU membership now than during euro crisis”, Accessed: August 2, 2023, https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2019/10/14/the-european-union/pg_10-15-19-europe-values-04-010/
• Pifer, Steven. “Crimea: Six years after illegal annexation.” Brookings, March 17, 2020. Accessed: September 27, 2023. https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2020/03/17/crimea-six-years-after-illegal-annexation/.
• Pierini, Marc. “In Search of an EU Role in the Syrian War”, Carnegie Europe, (August 2016): 22 Accessed: August 2, 2023, https://carnegieendowment.org/files/CP_284_Pierini_Syria_Final.pdf
• President of Russia, “Address by President of the Russian Federation”, March 18, 2014, Accessed: August 2, 2023, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/20603
• Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, “Ashton Meets with Egypt's Morsi”, July 30, 2013, Accessed: August 2, 2023 https://www.rferl.org/a/eu-ashton-morsi-egypt/25060773.html
• Rose, Gideon. “Neoclassical Realism and Theories of Foreign Policy”, World Politics, 51 (October 1998): 144-172. “Standard Eurobarometer 86”, Autumn 2016, Accessed: August 2, 2023, https://europa.eu/eurobarometer/surveys/detail/2137.
• “Standard Eurobarometer 99”, Spring 2023, Accessed: August 2, 2023, https://europa.eu/eurobarometer/surveys/detail/3052. Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, “Syrian Revolution 12 years on | Nearly 614,000 persons killed since the onset of the revolution in March 2011”, March 15, 2023, Accessed: August 2, 2023, https://www.syriahr.com/en/291981/
• The Council of the European Union, “Council Decision 2011/137/CFSP concerning restrictive measures in view of the situation in Libya”, Brussels, February 28, 2011, Accessed: August 2, 2023, http://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2011:058:0053:0062:EN:PDF. The Council of the European Union, “Council Decision 2011/210/CFSP of 1 April 2011 on a European Union military operation in support of humanitarian assistance operations in response to the crisis situation in Libya (EUFOR Libya)”, April 1, 2011, Accessed: August 2, 2023, https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT /?uri=CELEX%3A32011D0210
• Travis, Alan. “Shifting a problem back to its source”, The Guardian, February 5, 2003, Accessed: August 2, 2023, https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2003/feb/05/immigration.immigrationandpublicservices Turkmani, Rim and Mustafa Haid, “The role of the EU in the Syrian conflict”, SiT, (February 2016):16, Accessed: August 2, 2023, https://brussels.fes.de/fileadmin/public/editorfiles/events/Maerz_2016/FES_LSE_Syria_Turkmani_Haid_2016_02_23.pdf
• United Nations Support Mission in Libya, “Berlin International Conference on Libya”, January 19, 2020, Accessed: August 2, 2023, https://unsmil.unmissions.org/berlin-international-conference-libya-19-january-2020
• United Nations Office at Geneva, “Final communiqué of the Action Group for Syria”, June 30, 2012, Accessed: August 2, 2023, https://web.archive.org/web/20140129025023/http://www.unog.ch/80256EDD006B9C2E/%28httpNewsByYear_en%29/18F70DBC923963B1C1257A2D0060696B?OpenDocument
• US Congress, “H.R.31 - Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act of 2019”, 116th Congress 2019 – 2020, Accessed: August 2, 2023, https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-bill/31
• Yırcalı, Ayşe Üstünel. “Europe and the Syrian Conflict: Policies and Perceptions”, PODEM, (September 2017): 9, Accessed: August 2, 2023, http://podem.org.tr/en/researches/europe-and-the-syrian-conflict-policies-and-perceptions/