Offensive Mercantilism and the Crisis of Liberal International Order: Reinterpreting the U.S.-China Trade War

Abstract

This article employs Jonathan Holslag’s concept of offensive mercantilism as a framework to reinterpret the recent shifts in the U.S.-China economic relations, specifically the Trade War initiated in 2018 by Donald Trump Administration’s decision to increase tariffs against imports from China, as a cataclysmic step for the trajectory of the Liberal International Order (LIO). The article asserts that trade war should be considered not as a mere departure from liberal norms, but as a strategic policy aimed at power projection through coercive economic diplomacy, given the broader structural erosion of U.S. hegemonic capabilities and the rise of alternative economic powers, albeit China. As such, in which ways the resurgence of protectionism and economic nationalism implicates on the U.S.-China economic relations, as well as the international order, guides the research. The findings of the paper suggest that trade protectionism, far from being an anomaly, is increasingly becoming a normalized strategy of economic competition within the multipolar international order. Accordingly, waging trade war as an offensive mercantilist option to contain China’s expanding economic, as well as military, clout, can be identified as a long-term strategy, rather than a short-term tactic, which would likely to be carried on, regardless of the ideological background of the U.S. governments, against perceived threats to the LIO and the U.S. hegemony within it.

Keywords

• Offensive Mercantilism
• U.S.-China Trade War
• Liberal International Order (LIO)
• Protectionism
• Hegemonic Decline

Saldırgan Merkantilizm ve Liberal Uluslararası Düzenin Krizi: ABD-Çin Ticaret Savaşını Yeniden Yorumlamak

Abstract

Bu makale, Jonathan Holslag’ın saldırgan merkantilizm kavramını kullanarak, ABD-Çin ekonomik ilişkilerinde son dönemde yaşanan değişimleri—özellikle Donald Trump yönetiminin 2018 yılında Çin’den yapılan ithalata yönelik tarifeleri artırma kararıyla başlattığı Ticaret Savaşı’nı—Liberal Uluslararası Düzen’in (LUD) gidişatı açısından yıkıcı bir adım olarak yeniden yorumlamıştır. Makale, ticaret savaşının yalnızca liberal normlardan bir sapma olarak değil, daha geniş çaplı olarak ABD’nin hegemonik kapasitesindeki yapısal aşınma ve Çin başta olmak üzere alternatif ekonomik güçlerin yükselişi bağlamında, amacı ekonomik zorlama yoluyla güç projeksiyonu olan stratejik bir politika olarak değerlendirilmesi gerektiğini savunmuştur. Bu bağlamda, korumacılık ve ekonomik milliyetçiliğin yeniden yükselişinin ABD-Çin ekonomik ilişkileri ve uluslararası düzeni hangi açılardan etkilediği, çalışmanın temel araştırma sorusudur. Makalenin bulguları, korumacılığın bir anomali olmaktan ziyade, çok kutuplu uluslararası düzende ekonomik rekabetin giderek normalleşen bir stratejisi haline geldiğini ileri sürmüştür. Buna göre, Çin’in artan ekonomik ve askeri etkisini sınırlamak amacıyla saldırgan merkantilist bir seçenek olarak ticaret savaşı yürütmenin, kısa vadeli bir taktikten ziyade, ABD hükümetlerinin ideolojik yaklaşımından bağımsız olarak, LUD’ye ve ABD hegemonyasına yönelik tehditlere karşı uzun vadeli bir strateji olarak değerlendirilebileceği iddia edilmiştir.

Keywords

• Saldırgan Merkantilizm
• ABD-Çin Ticaret Savaşı
• Liberal Uluslararası Düzen (LUD)
• Korumacılık
• Hegemonik Gerileme

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