Abstract
Küresel ısınma ve bundan kaynaklanan iklim değişikliği doğal kaynakların
sürdürülebilirliği açısından önemli sorunlara neden olmaktadır. Bu çalışmada
Türkiye’nin batısında yer alan Ege Denizi kıyısındaki 9 meteoroloji gözlem istasyonuna
ait 43 yıllık sıcaklık, yağış, buharlaşma gibi meteorolojik parametreler ile aynı bölgede
yer alan ve Ege Denizine dökülen Bakırçay nehrine ait 17 yıllık veri seti kullanılmıştır.
İklim parametreleri ile nehir akış hızına ait değişim noktalarının belirlenmesi için Pettitt
değişim noktası analizi, eğilimlerin belirlendiği trend analizleri için Box-Jenkins
yöntemi ve ARIMA modeli, bu parametreler arasındaki ilişkileri belirlemek için ise
Kendall’s Tau ve Spearman’s rho korelasyon testleri kullanılmıştır. Pettitt testi sonucu
sıcaklık, buharlaşma ve yağış miktarları için değişim yılları sırasıyla 1997, 1993 ve
1993 iken Bakırçay nehrinin akış hızı için ise 2008 olarak belirlenmiştir.
Gerçekleştirilen trend analizleri sonucunda sıcaklık ve buharlaşma miktarında artış;
yağış miktarı ve nehir akış hızında ise azalış olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Ancak bu
parametrelerin yıllara göre değişimi ile iklim parametreleri ve nehir akış hızı arasındaki
korelasyonların istatistiksel olarak önemsiz olduğu belirlenmiştir (p>0.05). Sonuç
olarak iklim değişikliğinin nehir akış hızları üzerine olan etkilerinin değişken
olabileceği, küresel ısınmanın nehir sistemleri üzerine etkilerinin belirlenmesinde
antropojenik etkiler, coğrafi konum, tarımsal faaliyetler, yerleşim yerleri ve nüfus yoğunluğu gibi birçok faktörün de dikkate alınması gerektiği düşünülmektedir. Ayrıca
iklim değişikliğinin nehirlerin hidrolojik süreçleri üzerine olan etkilerinin
değerlendirilmesinde bölgeye ve amaca uygun değerlendirme modellerinin kullanılması
ve özelleştirilmiş yönetim stratejilerinin geliştirilmesi önerilmektedir.
References
- Arnell, N. W., Effects of IPCC SRES* emissions scenarios on river runoff: a global perspective, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 7(5), 619-641, 2003.
- IPCC, (ed.), Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability: Working Group II Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 976 p., 2007.
- IPCC, (ed.), Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, USA, 881 p., 2001.
- Christensen, J. H., Hewitson, B., Busuioc, A., Chen, A., Gao, X., Held, R., Jones, R., Kolli, R. K., Kwon, W., Laprise, R., Magaña Rueda, V., Mearns, L., Menéndez, C. G., Räisänen, J., Rinke, A., Sarr, A., Whetton, P., Regional Climate Projections, In: Climate Change, 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Solomon, S., Qin, D., Manning, M., Chen, Z., Marquis, M., Averyt, 171 K.B., Tignor, M. M. B., Miller, H. L., (eds.). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK. p. 847-940, 2007.
- Zhang, L., Lu, W., Yang, Q., An, Y., Li, D., Gong, L., Hydrological impacts of climate change on streamflow of Dongliao River watershed in Jilin Province, China, Chinese Geographical Science, 22(5), 522-530, 2012.
- Bozkurt, D., Sen, O. L., Climate change impacts in the Euphrates–Tigris Basin based on different model and scenario simulations, Journal of Hydrology, 480, 149-161, 2013.
- Herawati, H., Suripin, Suharyanto, Impact of Climate Change on Streamflow in the Tropical Lowland of Kapuas River, West Borneo, Indonesia, Procedia Engineering, 125, 185-192, 2015.
- Zhou, Y., Shi, C., Fan, X., Shao, W., The influence of climate change and anthropogenic activities on annual runoff of Huangfuchuan basin in northwest China, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 120(1-2), 137-146, 2015.
- Pumo, D., Caracciolo, D., Viola, F., Noto, L. V., Climate change effects on the hydrological regime of small non-perennial river basins, Science of The Total Environment, 542, Part A, 76-92, 2016.
- Ejder, T., Kale, S., Acar, S., Hisar, O., Mutlu, F., Restricted effects of climate change on annual streamflow of Sarıçay stream (Çanakkale, Turkey), Marine Science and Technology Bulletin, 5(1), 7-11, 2016.
Abstract
Global warming and its impacts are known cause serious problems in terms of the
sustainability of natural resources. In this study, 43-years of meteorological parameters
such as temperature, precipitation and evaporation belong to 9 meteorological
observation stations in the coast of Aegean Sea, which is in the west of Turkey and 17-
years of data belongs to Bakırçay river which is in the same area with the stations and
flow into the Aegean Sea, were used. The Pettitt change-point analysis was used to
determine the change points belonging to climatic parameters and streamflow of the
river. In addition, the Box-Jenkins method and the ARIMA model were used for trend
analyses with which trends were determined. Furthermore, Kendall’s tau and
Spearman’s correlation tests were used, to determine the relationship between the two
parameters. As a result of the Pettitt test, while the change years for evaporation,
temperature and precipitation were determined to be 1997, 1993 and 1993 respectively,
the change years for the streamflow of Bakırçay river was determined to be 2008. As a
result of the trend analyses, it could be determined that there was a noticeable increase
in temperature and evaporation values, and that there was a decrease in the streamflow
of the river. However, it was also determined that the correlations between the river
streamflow and climatic parameters, and the change of these parameters according to years were determined to be statistically insignificant (p>0.05). As a result, it is
considered that the effects of climate change on river streamflow could be changeable
and that many factors such as anthropogenic effects, geographical location, agricultural
activities, residential areas and population density should be taken into account in
determining the effects of global warming on river systems. It is suggested that
evaluation models and management strategies specified regionally and appropriate to
the objective be used in evaluating the effects of the climate change on the hydrological
processes of rivers.
References
- Arnell, N. W., Effects of IPCC SRES* emissions scenarios on river runoff: a global perspective, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 7(5), 619-641, 2003.
- IPCC, (ed.), Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability: Working Group II Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 976 p., 2007.
- IPCC, (ed.), Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, USA, 881 p., 2001.
- Christensen, J. H., Hewitson, B., Busuioc, A., Chen, A., Gao, X., Held, R., Jones, R., Kolli, R. K., Kwon, W., Laprise, R., Magaña Rueda, V., Mearns, L., Menéndez, C. G., Räisänen, J., Rinke, A., Sarr, A., Whetton, P., Regional Climate Projections, In: Climate Change, 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Solomon, S., Qin, D., Manning, M., Chen, Z., Marquis, M., Averyt, 171 K.B., Tignor, M. M. B., Miller, H. L., (eds.). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK. p. 847-940, 2007.
- Zhang, L., Lu, W., Yang, Q., An, Y., Li, D., Gong, L., Hydrological impacts of climate change on streamflow of Dongliao River watershed in Jilin Province, China, Chinese Geographical Science, 22(5), 522-530, 2012.
- Bozkurt, D., Sen, O. L., Climate change impacts in the Euphrates–Tigris Basin based on different model and scenario simulations, Journal of Hydrology, 480, 149-161, 2013.
- Herawati, H., Suripin, Suharyanto, Impact of Climate Change on Streamflow in the Tropical Lowland of Kapuas River, West Borneo, Indonesia, Procedia Engineering, 125, 185-192, 2015.
- Zhou, Y., Shi, C., Fan, X., Shao, W., The influence of climate change and anthropogenic activities on annual runoff of Huangfuchuan basin in northwest China, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 120(1-2), 137-146, 2015.
- Pumo, D., Caracciolo, D., Viola, F., Noto, L. V., Climate change effects on the hydrological regime of small non-perennial river basins, Science of The Total Environment, 542, Part A, 76-92, 2016.
- Ejder, T., Kale, S., Acar, S., Hisar, O., Mutlu, F., Restricted effects of climate change on annual streamflow of Sarıçay stream (Çanakkale, Turkey), Marine Science and Technology Bulletin, 5(1), 7-11, 2016.
Details
| Subjects | Engineering |
|---|---|
| Journal Section | Physics |
| Authors | |
| Publication Date | December 27, 2016 |
| Submission Date | February 24, 2017 |
| Acceptance Date | December 21, 2016 |
| Published in Issue | Year 2016 Volume: 6 Issue: 2 |
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