ATMOSFERİK SALINIMLARIN İKLİM DEĞİŞİKLİĞİ ÜZERİNE ETKİLERİNİN DEĞERLENDİRİLMESİ: HATAY İLİ ÖRNEĞİ

Year 2024, , 232 - 247, 31.08.2024

Emir Cengiz Durgun , Utku Zeybekoğlu , Oğuz Şimşek

https://doi.org/10.54365/adyumbd.1482163

Abstract

İklim değişikliği ve küresel ısınma neticesinde, azalan yağış ve artan sıcaklık kuraklığın oluşumunu hızlandırmaktadır. Kuraklığın zamansal ve mekansal değerlendirilmesi, kuraklığın neden olacağı olumsuzlukların yaşanmasını veya etkilerinin azaltılmasına katkı sağlamaktadır. Bu çalışmada, Türkiye’nin güneyinde Suriye sınırında bulunan Hatay il sınırları içerisinde bulunan dört farklı meteoroloji gözlem istasyonunda 1970-2022 yılları arasındaki yağış ve SYİ yöntemiyle hesaplanan meteorolojik kuraklık indis değerlerinin zamansal ve mekansal değişimi değerlendirilmiştir. Ayrıca, bu iki parametrenin Kuzey Atlantik Salınımı (KAS), Arktik Salınımı (AS), Akdeniz 1 Salınımı (AKS1) ve Akdeniz 2 Salınımı (AKS2) ile olan ilişkisi belirlenmiştir. Kuraklığın değerlendirilmesinde Standartlaştırılmış Yağış İndeksi (SYİ), parametrelerin trendinin belirlenmesinde ise Mann-Kendall (MK) ve Spearman Rho (SR) yöntemleri kullanılmıştır. Çalışma sonucunda, 12 aylık SYİ indis değerlerinde sadece Antakya istasyonunda kuraklık oluşum oranı %50’den büyük olmuştur. En şiddetli kuraklık Antakya istasyonunda 1989 yılında, İskenderun istasyonunda 1972 yılında, Dörtyol ve Samandağ istasyonlarında ise 2022 yılında yaşanmıştır. Çalışma bölgesinde “Hafif Kurak” ve “Hafif Yağışlı” kuraklık sınıflarının oluşma oranı diğer kuraklık sınıflarından daha büyüktür. İncelenen istasyonlar arasında sadece İskenderun istasyonunda, MK ve SR yöntemlerinde istatiksel olarak artan trend belirlenmiştir. Dörtyol istasyonunda elde edilen yağış ve SYİ değerleriyle atmosferik salınımlar arasında negatif korelasyon bulunmuştur. Yıllık kuraklıklarda AS ve KAS ile tüm istasyonlar arasında negatif ilişki görülmektedir. Sonuç olarak, mekansal değerlendirmelerden gelecek yıllarda İskenderun istasyonunun bulunduğu bölgenin taşkın veya sel açısından büyük riskler taşıdığı, çalışma bölgesinin güney kesiminin ise kuraklık açısından daha riskli olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Bölgede, yağış ve kuraklıkta meydana gelen değişimin incelenen salınımlarla ilişkisinin zayıf olduğu belirlenmiştir.

Keywords

Atmosferik salınım, Meteorolojik kuraklık, Korelasyon katsayısı, Trend analizi, Hatay

Supporting Institution

Harran Üniversitesi Bilimsel Araştırma Projeleri Birimi (HÜBAP)

Thanks

Analizde kullanılan verileri sağlayan Meteoroloji Genel Müdürlüğüne (MGM) teşekkür ederiz.

ASSESSMENT OF THE EFFECTS OF ATMOSPHERIC OSCILLATIONS ON CLIMATE CHANGE: THE EXAMPLE OF HATAY PROVINCE

Abstract

As a result of climate change and global warming, decreasing precipitation and increasing temperature accelerate the occurrence of drought. Temporal and spatial evaluation of drought helps prevent or reduce the effects of drought. In this study, the temporal and spatial changes of meteorological drought index values calculated by the rainfall and SPI method between 1970 and 2022 at four different meteorological observation stations within the borders of Hatay province, located on the Syrian border in the south of Turkey, were evaluated. Additionally, the relationship of these two parameters with the North Atlantic (NAO), Arctic (AO), Mediterranean 1 (MIO1) and Mediterranean 2 (MIO2) oscillations was determined. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was used to evaluate drought, and Mann-Kendall (MK) and Spearman Rho (SR) methods were used to determine the trend of the parameters. As a result of the study, the drought occurrence rate was greater than 50% only in Antakya station in the 12-month SYI index values. The most severe drought was experienced at Antakya station in 1989, at İskenderun station in 1972, and at Dörtyol and Samandağ stations in 2022. The occurrence rate of "Mild Dry" and "Mild Rainy" drought classes in the study region is higher than other drought classes. Among the stations examined, a statistically increasing trend was determined only in Iskenderun station in MK and SR methods. A negative correlation was found between precipitation and SPI values obtained at Dörtyol station and atmospheric oscillations. There is a negative relationship between AO and NAO and all stations in annual droughts. As a result, from spatial evaluations, it has been determined that the region where the Iskenderun station is located carries great risks in terms of floods in the coming years, and the southern part of the study area is more risky in terms of drought. It has been determined that the change in precipitation and drought in the region has a weak relationship with the oscillations examined.

Keywords

Atmospheric oscillation, Meteorological drought, Correlation coefficient, Hatay, Trend analysis

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