TREND ANALYSIS OF METEOROLOGICAL PARAMETERS & DROUGHT ANALYSIS IN THE MURAT RIVER BASIN

Year 2024, Volume: 11 Issue: 22, 110 - 124, 30.04.2024

Üveys Yaman , Ayşe Yeter Günal

https://doi.org/10.54365/adyumbd.1388659

Abstract

Recognizing hydro-meteorological trends and monitoring drought are crucial for evaluating climate change and variability at basin and regional levels. In this Study,The Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) was used to assess drought in the Murat River Basin, analyzing monthly data from seventeen stations over various time periods. Wallis and Moore's test was used to analyze the homogeneity of the obtained monthly data from 17 rainfall stations and 18 temperature stations ,while Mann-Kendal tests were used to assess trends. The study analyzing data from 17 meteorological stations in the Murat River Basin found a lack of rainfall and severe droughts in 2014 and 2018. The Mann-Kendall test showed a decreasing trend in monthly precipitation data from 17 stations. Temperature data from 18 stations showed a rising trend, except for station 4025, with most showing a rise. The study suggests that rising temperatures and decreasing precipitation will lead to a decline in water supply in the future, affecting socioeconomic life by reducing water resources and soil moisture.

Keywords

Climate Change, Trend Analysis, Drought Analysis, Murat River Basin, Standard Precipitation Index (SPI)

MURAT NEHRİ HAVZASINDA METEOROLOJİK PARAMETRELERİN TREND ANALİZİ VE KURAKLIK ANALİZİ

Abstract

Hidro-meteorolojik eğilimlerin tanınması ve kuraklığın izlenmesi, havza ve bölgesel düzeyde iklim değişikliği ve değişkenliğinin değerlendirilmesi için çok önemlidir. Bu çalışmada, Murat Nehri Havzası'ndaki kuraklığı değerlendirmek için Standart Yağış İndeksi (SPI) kullanılmış ve çeşitli zaman dilimlerinde on yedi istasyondan alınan aylık veriler analiz edilmiştir. Elde edilen 17 yağış ve 18 sıcaklık istasyonlarının aylık verilerinin homojenliğini analiz etmek için Wallis ve Moore testi kullanılırken, eğilimleri değerlendirmek için Mann-Kendal testleri kullanılmıştır. Murat Nehri Havzası'ndaki 17 meteoroloji istasyonundan elde edilen verilerin analiz edildiği çalışmada, 2014 ve 2018 yıllarında yağış eksikliği ve şiddetli kuraklık tespit edilmiştir. Mann-Kendall testi, 17 istasyondan alınan aylık yağış verilerinde bir azalma eğilimi olduğunu göstermiştir. 18 istasyondan alınan sıcaklık verileri, 4025 numaralı istasyon hariç, artış eğilimi göstermiştir. Çalışma, artan sıcaklıklar ve azalan yağışların gelecekte su arzında düşüşe yol açacağını, su kaynaklarını ve toprak nemini azaltarak sosyo-ekonomik yaşamı etkileyeceğini öne sürmektedir.

Keywords

İklim Değişikliği, Trend Analizi, Kuraklık Analizi, Murat Nehri Havzası, Standart Yağış Endeksi (SPI).

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