ABD’NİN AFGANİSTAN’DAN AYRILMASININ NEDENLERİ

Year 2025, Volume: 9 Issue: 1, 66 - 82, 30.06.2025

Ahmet Gökbel , Babur Haya

Abstract

Bu çalışma, Sovyetler Birliği’nin Afganistan’ı işgalinden başlayarak 11 Eylül 2001 sonrası ABD müdahalesine ve 2021’deki çekilme sürecine kadar uzanan dönemi kapsamlı biçimde analiz etmektedir. Büyük güçlerin Afganistan üzerindeki stratejik rekabeti ile bu rekabetin ülkenin siyasal, toplumsal ve güvenlik yapıları üzerindeki etkileri değerlendirilmiştir. Bonn (2001) ve Doha (2020) Anlaşmaları bağlamında barış inşası ve devlet kurma çabaları incelenmiştir. ABD’nin çekilme kararında etkili olan faktörler; etnik-kabile dengesizlikleri, yolsuzluk, yetersiz kurumsallaşma ve Afgan toplumunun sosyopolitik karmaşıklığı çerçevesinde ele alınmıştır. Ayrıca “terörle mücadele” söylemiyle başlayan müdahalenin toplumsal gerçeklikle uyumsuzluğu, dış yardımlara rağmen sağlanamayan istikrar ve kapsayıcılık sorunları tartışılmıştır. Doha Anlaşması’nın takvimi ve uygulama sorunları ile ABD’nin stratejik odağını Asya-Pasifik bölgesine kaydırması gibi hususlar da çalışmanın odak noktalarındandır.

Keywords

Afganistan , Bonn Anlaşması , Doha Anlaşması , ABD’nin Çekilmesi , Bölgesel Rekabet

References

• Abbas, S. A., Saqib, A. & Masood, M. (2024). US Military Posture in the Asia-Pacific and its Impact on Regional Stability. BTTN Journal, 3(1), 66-87.
• Acar, H. & Pekcandanoğlu, M. (2020). Evaluation of Developments in Afghanistan in the Context of Foreign Policy and Security İssues. International Journal of Politics and Security, 2(3), 135-158.
• Afsah, E. & Guhr, A. H. (2005). Afghanistan: Building a State to Keep the Peace. Max Planck Yearbook of United Nations Law Online, 9(1), 373-456.
• Ahmed, Z. (2023). Pak-US Relations Post 9/11: Impact of Aid, İrritants and Regimes in Pakistan (2001-2013). Journal of Politics and International Studies, 1(1), 14–23.
• Imranullah, A., & Hakimuddin, M. (2024). Strategic Interests and Geopolitical Considerations: Assessing the Importance of Afghanistan for the US Post-Withdrawal.
• Journal of Arts, Humanities and Social Science, 1(2), 1-9.
• Aminullah, A. (2021). The İmpact of Physical Disability on Psychological Status Like Anxiety and Depression of Afghani People on Paktia Province Afghanistan, (Doctoral dissertation), University of Dhaka, Bangladesh.
• Andisha, N. A. (2022). The Collapse of State in Afghanistan: a Repeat of History?. Journal of Asian Security and International Affairs, 9(3), 369-382.
• Ayoub, S. A. (2023). The US Withdrawal from Afghanistan: A Critical Overview of three Presidencies (Obama, Trump, & Biden’s), (Master degree), Mohamed Khider University of Biskra, Algeria.
• Basit, A. (2020). The US-Taliban Deal and Expected US Exit from Afghanistan. Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses, 12(4), 8-14.
• Bassiouni, M. C. (2005). The İnstitutionalization of Torture Under the Bush Administration. Case W. Res. J. Int'l L., 37(2), 389-425.
• BBC News. (2020). Afghan conflict: US and Taliban Sign Deal To End 18-Year War, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-51689443.
• Chang, M. E. N. G., Yolchi, J., and Ghafoori, N. (2024). Afghanistan: The Economic Impact of Armed Conflict. Conflict Studies Quarterly, (48), 32-57.
• Clark, K. (2020). The Cost of Support to Afghanistan. Afghan Analyst Network. https://www.afghanistan-analysts.org/en/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2020/05/20200528-Rentier-1.pdf.
• Counterterrorism, B. O. (2019). Country Reports on Terrorism 2019. US Department of State, https://oipol.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/1-u.s-dpartment-of-state.pdf.
• Dashti, Z. (2021). ABD'nin Afganistan'dan Çekilmesi İle Taliban'in Yeniden İktidara Gelmesi. Asya Araştırmaları Uluslararası Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 5(2), 195-212.
• Davies, S., Pettersson, T., & Öberg, M. (2022). Organized Violence 1989–2021 and Drone Warfare. Journal of Peace Research, 59(4), 593-610.
• Dora, Z. K. (2021). The US-led “War on Terror” in Afghanistan: 2001-2021. MANAS Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 10(Özel Sayı), 172-185.
• Farr, G. M. (2020). The Afghan Peace Agreement and its Problems. E-International Relations, https://pdxscholar.library.pdx.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1139&context=soc_fac.
• Fields, M., & Ahmed, R. (2011). A review of the 2001 Bonn Conference and Application to the Road Ahead in Afghanistan. U.S: National Defense University Institute for National Strategic Studies, U.S.
• France News. (2021). Why is August 31 the date for the US pullout from Afghanistan?, https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20210825-why-is-august-31-the-date-for- the-us-pullout-from-afghanistan.
• Garamone, J. (2011). Obama Announces Troop Reductions, Way Forward in Afghanistan. https://www.nationalguard.mil/News/Article/610547/obama-announces-troop-reductions-way-forward-in-afghanistan/.
• Garamone, J. (2020). U.S. Will Draw Down Forces in Afghanistan, Iraq, Acting Secretary Says, https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/article/article/2418416/us-will-draw-down-forces-in-afghanistan-iraq-acting-secretary-says/.
• Gordon, R. (1993). United Nations Intervention in Internal Conflicts: Iraq, Somalia, and Beyond. Mich. J. Int'l L., 15(2), 519-589.
• Hassan, O. (2023). Afghanistan: Lessons Learnt from 20 Years of Supporting Democracy, Development and Security. Bruxelas, Bélgica: Directorate General for External Policies of the Union. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/370156789.
• Hussain, S. S. (2023). An Analysis of the Impact of Terrorism in Afghanistan on Pakistan after Taliban takeover of 2021. Pakistan Review of Social Sciences (PRSS), 4(1), 15-40.
• Huseyni, S. A. (2024, January 1). Darc Tarihçe Ravabet Ticareti Ba Camhuri Fideral Alman Dar Kamus Kabir Afganistan, https://www.afghangerman.net/upload/Tahlilha_PDF/hossainy_a_trade_relation_germany_in_ago_1.pdf.
• Ibrahim, A. J. (2024). Violence and Terrorism 'Concepts'. Journal of Babylon Center for Humanities Studies, 14(1), 37-69.
• Idrees, M., & Khan, S. A. (2022). How Economic Wellbeing Affected By Internal Conflicts? Asset Losses and Recovery For Displaced Households In Afghanistan, (Master degree), Pakistan İnstitute of Development Economic, İslamabad.
• Jamshidi, M. N. (2024). United States Policy Shift from Combat Operations to Negotiations with the Taliban. Senior Projects Fall 2024,43, https://digitalcommons.bard.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1026&context=senproj_ f2024.
• Johnson, J. T. (2012). Moral Responsibility Aftar Conflict. Eric Patterson (Ed) Ethics Beyond War's End, Georgetown University Press, p.17-34.
• Jones, S. G. (2020). Afghanistan’s Future Emirate? The Taliban and the Struggle for Afghanistan. CTC Sentinel, 13(11), 1-10.
• Kastner, S. L., & Pearson, M. M. (2021). Exploring the Parameters of China’s Economic İnfluence. Studies in Comparative International Development, 56, 18-44.
• Kaura, V., and Era, T. (2017). US–Pakistan Relations in the Trump Era: Resetting the Terms of Engagement in Afghanistan. ORF Occasional Paper, 128, 1-30.
• Kelemen, B. (2020). China's Economic Stabilization Efforts in Afghanistan: A New Party to the Table?. Middle East Institute, 21(1), 1-6.
• Khalid, I., & Mushtaq, S. (2020). Insurgency in Afghanistan: Challenge to Liberal Peace and State Building. Pakistan Social Sciences Review, 4(1), 525-539.
• Koç, T. T., ve Şeker, B. Ş. (2023). US Withdrawal Process from Afghanistan and its Effects on İnternational Relations. Karadeniz Araştırmaları, 20(79), 533-558.
• Kummer, David W. (2014). US Marines in Afghanistan, 2001-2009: Anthology and Annotated Bibliography. United States Marine CorpsQuantico, Virginia.
• Löfflmann, G. (2024). The Bush Doctrine Redux: Changes and Continuities in American Grand Strategy Since ‘9/11’. International Politics, 61(3), 501-522.
• Maley, W., & Jamal, A. S. (2022). Diplomacy of Disaster: The Afghanistan ‘Peace Process’ and the Taliban Occupation of Kabul. The Hague Journal of Diplomacy, 17(1), 32-63.
• Malik, O. E. (2023). Impact of External Counterterrorism Interventions on Host Country Stability: the Case of Select Us-led Interventions, 2001-2021, (Doctoral dissertation), University of Nairobi, Kenya.
• Malkasian, C. (2021).The American War in Afghanistan: A History. Oxford University Press, https://militairespectator.nl/sites/default/files/bestanden/uitgaven/inhoudsopgaven /militaire_spectator_11_2022_recensie_malkasian.pdf.
• Maloney, S. M. (2022). The Canadian Army in Afghanistan. Army Publishing Office. Canada, https://www.canada.ca/content/dam/dnd-mdn/army/lineofsight/articleimages/2023/11/CAIA-Vol1-EN.pdf.
• Mbaeze, N. (2022). The Role of USA In Combating Terrorism In Afghanistan, 2016-2020. Esut Jounal of Social Sciences, 7(1), 101-137.
• Miller, L. E., & Blake, J. S. (2019). Envisioning a Comprehensive Peace Agreement for Afghanistan. RAND Corporation.
• Miller, L. (2023). Biden's Afghanistan Withdrawal: A Verdict on the Limits of American Power. Taylor & Francis Group, United Kingdom.
• Murodullaev, H. O. U. (2023). The Taliban’s Return To Power: Global and Regional Stakes, (Master's thesis), Università Degli Studi Di Padova, İtalian.
• Mustasilta, K., Karjalainen, T., Stewart, T. R., & Salo, M. (2023). Finland in Afghanistan 2001-2021: From Stabilization to Advancing Foreign and Security Policy Relations. Finnish Institute of International Affairs.
• Nasrat, Q. (2020). Negotiating With the Taliban: How Will it Affect the Future of Afghanistan?. Journal of Academic Perspective on Social Studies, (1), 19-27.
• O'rourke, R. (2022). Great Power Competition: Implications for Defense—Issues for Congress. Congressional Research Service (CRS Report), Washington, D.C.
• Qadir, S. G., Yanyu, F., Amein, A. S., & Ahmed, F. M. (2011). Focused ISAR Imaging of Rotating Target in Far-Field Compact Range Anechoic Chamber. In International Conference on Aerospace Sciences and Aviation Technology 14(26), 1-7.
• Rasooli, M., Yawar, M. E., & Shaiq, M. Q. (2024). The Accelerated Military Withdrawal of the United States from Afghanistan and its Turn to East Asia: Changing the Path of Forced and Political Hegemony. Law and Humanities Quarterly Reviews, 3(1) 82-96.
• Raza, A., Atif, M., Hussain, M., & Sayed, M. (2024). The War on Terror and US Foreign Policy: The Transition from Obama’s Af-Pak Policy to Trump’s Negotiations with the Taliban. Competitive Education Research Journal, 2(4), 33–40.
• Semple, M. Raphel, R. L., & Rasikh, S. (2021). An İndependent Assessment of the Afghanistan Peace Process June 2018 – May 2021. University of Edinburgh Within the Political Settlements Research Programme (PRSP) Framework. SİGAR, Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction. (2018, April 30). U.S. Government. https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/pdfs/AD1139431.pdf.
• Sharify, W. (2023). The Chinese Structural Power Expansion and the United States of America’s Hegemonic Decrease in South Asia. (Master degree), University of Afghanistan Institute of Social Sciences, Kabul.
• Tariq, M., Rizwan, M., & Ahmad, M. (2020). US Withdrawal from Afghanistan: Latest Development and Security Situation (2020). sjesr, 3(2), 290-297.
• Tariq, M., Bano, S., & Amir, M. (2021). US Interest in Afghanistan and Current Peace Prospects. sjesr, 4(1),365-370.
• Tarzi A. (2005). Afghanistan: Who Exactly Is The Enemy?. Radio Free Europe, Radio Liberty. https://www.rferl.org/a/1063214.html.
• Thomas, C., Hacker, T. F., Gill, C. R., & Peters, H. M. (2021). US Military Drawdown in Afghanistan: Frequently Asked Questions. Congressional Research Service, (CRS Report), Washington, D.C. https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R46670.
• Topuz, Z. Ç. (2023). An Analysis of Central Asian States’ Political Affinity to Global Powers: Case of Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan. Bilig, (107), 1-32.
• Ullah, H., Ahmad, R., & Khan, M. M. (2020). Afghanistan: US-Taliban Peace Talks: CPEC Perspective. Conflict Studies Quarterly, (32), 53-73.
• Valtonen, L. (2021). United Nations Support to Local Peacebuilding: a Case Study From Afghanistan, (Master degree), University of Tampere, Finland.
• Weigand, F. (2022). 5. Why Did the Taliban Win (Again) in Afghanistan?. M. Cox (Ed) Afghanistan Long War, Forgotten Peace, London: LSE Public Policy Review Series, p. 87-110.
• Welle, D. (2020). Economic Woes Exposed Covid-19 is a Game-Changer for a Country Already at the Edge of the Precipice. https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7361471/pdf/ARBE-57-23007B.pdf.
• Whitlock, C. (2021). The Afghanistan Papers: A Secret History of the War. Simon and Schuster, New York-LondonToronto-Sydney-New Delhi.
• Zum Felde, R. M. (2022). What a Military Alliance Between Russia and China Would Mean for NATO. S. Kirchberger, S. Sinjen & N. Wörmer (Eds) Russia-China Relations: Emerging Alliance or Eternal Rivals?, Switzerland :This Springer imprint is published by the registered company Springer Nature Switzerland, p. 245-266.