Türkiye'de Sera Gazı Emisyonları ile Gayrisafi Yurtiçi Hasıla Arasındaki Dinamik İlişkinin İncelenmesi

Abstract

Bu çalışma, 1951 ile 2018 yıllarını kapsayan dönemde Türkiye'deki Gayrisafi Yurtiçi Hasıla ile sera gazı emisyonları arasındaki nedensel ilişkinin incelenmesini amaçlamaktadır. Bu inceleme, Topluluk Ampirik Kip Ayrıştırma, Hilbert-Huang Dönüşümü ve Faz Uyumluluk Yöntemlerinin entegre edilmesiyle birlikte Nedensel Ayrıştırma Yöntemi kullanılarak gerçekleştirilmiştir. Çalışmanın odak noktası, sanayi üretimiyle bağlantılı olan ve sera gazı emisyonlarına önemli ölçüde katkıda bulunan birincil sektörlerin belirlenmesidir. Analiz, Gayrisafi Yurtiçi Hasıladan sera gazı emisyonlarına doğru tek yönlü ve kısa vadeli bir nedensel ilişkiyi, yaklaşık olarak 3 yıllık bir dönemi kapsayacak şekilde ortaya koymaktadır. Bu bulgu, Gayrisafi Yurtiçi Hasıladaki değişikliklerin emisyonlar üzerinde kısa vadeli etkilere sahip olduğunu, ancak tersinin geçerli olmadığını öne sürmektedir. Çalışmada Karbondioksit, Metan ve Nitröz Oksit gazlarına özel önem verilmekte olup bu gazların Gayrisafi Yurtiçi Hasıla ile güçlü ve tutarlı bir nedensel ilişkisi olduğu gözlenmektedir. Çalışmanın önemi, ilgili dinamik nedenselliği incelemek için Topluluk Ampirik Kip Ayrıştırma yaklaşımının kullanılması ve mevcut literatürde önemli bir boşluğu doldurmasıdır. Ampirik sonuçlar, Türkiye'de Gayrisafi Yurtiçi Hasıla büyümesi ile sera gazı emisyonları arasında karmaşık ancak gözlemlenebilir bir ilişkinin olduğunu ve bu ilişkinin dönemsel dalgalanmalar ile birlikte özellikle kısa ve uzun vadede daha da önem kazandığını göstermektedir.

Keywords

• Sera Gazı Emisyonları
• Gayrisafi Yurtiçi Hasıla
• Nedensel Ayrıştırma Yöntemi
• Makroekonomi
• Türkiye

Investigating the Dynamic Relationship Between Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Gross Domestic Product in Türkiye

Abstract

This study aims to investigate the causal relationship between Gross Domestic Product and greenhouse gas emissions in Türkiye from 1951 to 2018, using the Causal Decomposition Method that integrates Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition, Hilbert-Huang Transform, and Phase Coherence Methods. The primary focus is on identifying the key sectors contributing significantly to greenhouse gas emissions, particularly those connected to industrial production. The analysis reveals a one-way, short-term causal relationship from Gross Domestic Product to greenhouse gas emissions, spanning approximately 3 years. This finding suggests that changes in Gross Domestic Product have short-term effects on emissions, but not vice versa. Special emphasis is placed on the gases Cardon Dioxide, Methane and Nitrous Oxide, as they demonstrate a strong, consistent causal connection with Gross Domestic Product. The significance of this study lies in its utilization of the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition approach to investigate this dynamic causality and address a notable gap in the existing literature. Empirical results indicate a complex yet observable association between Gross Domestic Product growth and greenhouse gas emissions in Türkiye, and that this relationship becomes more important, especially in the short and long term, with periodic fluctuations.

Keywords

• Greenhouse Gas Emissions
• Gross Domestic Product
• Casual Decomposition Method
• Macroeconomics
• Türkiye

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