Ecological Inference Method: 2024 Ankara Metropolitan Municipality Election Vote Transition Analysis

Year 2024, , 849 - 862, 25.12.2024

Esra Hasdemir , Özge Çamalan , Mithat Üner

https://doi.org/10.26745/ahbvuibfd.1532892

Abstract

The ecological inference method is an approach that allows predictions to be made for individual-level data based on aggregated data when access to individual data is not possible or very difficult. Based on this, within the scope of the study, the vote transitions for the Ankara Metropolitan Municipality elections held in 2024 were analyzed using the ecological inference approach developed by Rosen, Jiang, King, and Tanner (2001). The vote transitions in question were estimated and interpreted based on both the number of voters and the transition probability matrix as a result of the analysis performed based on an 8×8 quota table. The predictions that were obtained were visualized by drawing a Sankey diagram. According to the analysis results based on the Ankara Metropolitan Municipality elections, it was estimated that 54% of the voters who voted for the Justice and Development Party (AK Party) in the 2019 elections also voted for the AK Party in the 2024 elections, approximately 20% of those who voted for the AK Party in the 2019 elections did not vote in the 2024 elections, and 16.6% voted for the Republican People's Party (CHP). According to the same analysis results, it was determined that 82.7% of the voters who voted for the CHP in the 2019 elections voted for the CHP again, 10.5% did not vote, and 2.1% voted for the AK Party. Another finding of the analysis is that 58.8% of the voters who did not vote in the 2019 elections preferred not to vote in the 2024 local elections either and that the remaining 23.5% of the voters who did not vote in the 2019 elections voted for the CHP, 1.9% for the AK Party, 7.8% for other parties, 2.3% for the Yeni Welfare Party (YRP), and 1.1% for the İYİ Party.

Keywords

Ecological Inference, Vote Transition, Ankara Metropolitan Municipality

Ekolojik Çıkarım Yöntemi: 2024 Yılı Ankara Büyükşehir Belediye Başkanlığı Seçimi Oy Geçiş Analizi

Abstract

Ekolojik çıkarım yöntemi, bireysel verilere erişimin mümkün olmadığı ya da çok zor olduğu durumlarda, toplulaştırılmış düzeydeki verilerden hareketle bireysel düzeydeki verilere yönelik tahminler yapılmasını sağlayan bir yaklaşımdır. Buradan hareketle, çalışma kapsamında, 2024 yılında yapılan Ankara Büyükşehir Belediye Başkanlığı seçimine ait oy geçişleri Rosen, Jiang, King ve Tanner (2001) tarafından geliştirilen ekolojik çıkarım yaklaşımıyla analiz edilmiştir. Söz konusu oy geçişleri, 8×8 boyutunda kontenjans tablosu temelinde yapılan analiz sonucunda hem seçmen sayısı hem de geçiş olasılık matrisi bazında tahmin edilmiş ve yorumlanmıştır. Elde edilen tahminler, Sankey diyagramı çizilerek görselleştirilmiştir. Ankara Büyükşehir Belediye Başkanlığı seçimi temelinde yapılan analiz sonuçlarına göre, 2019 seçimlerinde Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi (AK Parti) için oy kullanan seçmenin %54’ünün 2024 seçiminde de AK Parti’ye oy verdiği, 2019 yılı seçiminde AK Parti’ye oy verenlerin yaklaşık %20’sinin 2024 seçiminde oy kullanmadığı, %16,6’sının ise Cumhuriyet Halk Partisi (CHP)’ ne oy verdiği tahmin edilmiştir. Aynı analiz sonuçlarına göre, 2019 seçimlerinde CHP yönünde oy kullanan seçmenin %82,7’sinin yeniden CHP’ye oy verdiği, %10,5’inin oy kullanmadığı, %2,1’inin AK Parti’ye oy verdiği belirlenmiştir. Analizin bir diğer bulgusu ise, 2019 seçiminde oy kullanmayan seçmenin %58,8’inin 2024 yerel seçiminde de oy kullanmamayı tercih ettiği, 2019 yılı seçiminde oy kullanmayan seçmenlerin geriye kalan kısmının %23,5’inin CHP’ye, %1,9’unun AK Parti’ye, %7,8’inin diğer partilere, %2,3’ünün Yeniden Refah Partisi (YRP)’ne, %1,1’i ise İYİ Parti’ye oy verdiği şeklindedir.

Keywords

Ekolojik Çıkarım, Oy Geçişi, Ankara Büyükşehir Belediye Başkanlığı

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