Long-term Relationship of Production with Real Effective Foreign Exchange: An Empirical Analysis on Kazakhstan

Year 2018, Volume: 20 Issue: 2, 360 - 387, 23.10.2018

Sezer Bozkuş , Hakan Kahyaoğlu

Abstract

This study
analyzes the long-run relationship between the real effective exchange rate
which is based on oil prices and the industrial production index by taking
Kazakhstan's economy into consideration. The hypothesis in applied studies is
that the exports of basic goods, which lead to the appreciation of real
effective exchange rate, causes a decline in non-tradable goods sectors or, in
general, the hypothesis is analyzed in relation to the production volume of the
economy relative to these real effective exchange rates. With this knowledge in
the literature, this study analyzes the validity of the hypothesis of the
"Dutch Disease" as an economy based on export of natural resources
for the Kazakhstan Economy. This study conducted new techniques that are used
for regression models in order to test co-integration allowing for multiple
breaks. In addition, the robustness test was applied for the empirical
findings. This work provides relevant literature a contribution because it
deals with the Kazakh economy using new techniques. When the data and the
period taken into consideration,  it is
found that the "The Dutch Disease" 
hypothesis is valid for Kazakhstan Economy. Especially, it can be said
that the implementation of a support policy that attaches importance to the
diversity of the sector and the diversity of goods in production is essential
for Kazakhstan. In addition depending on these empirical findings, decline in
energy prices will have a negative impact on economic growth.

Keywords

Dutch Disease, Real Effective Exchange Rate, Kazakhstan Industrial Production Index, Multiple Structural Break Co-integration

Üretim ile Reel Efektif Döviz Kurunun Uzun Dönemli İlişkisi: Kazakistan Üzerine Bir Uygulama

Abstract

Bu çalışmada, Kazakistan Ekonomisi'nde doğal kaynak
ihracatına dayalı bir ekonomi olarak "Hollanda Hastalığı"nın geçerli
olup olmadığı analiz edilmiştir. Hollanda Hastalığı bulunan bir ülkenin
ekonomisi için öncesinde yararlı bir gelişme varken, bir süre sonra bunun
zararlı sonuçlar vermesi söz konusu olmaktadır. Bu açıdan, literatürde ekonomi
hastalığı olarak bilinen Hollanda Hastalığı'nın en temel göstergesi, bir
ekonomideki aşırı değerlenmiş döviz kurudur.  Bu amaçla öncelikle Kazakistan Ekonomisi için petrol
fiyatlarına dayalı olarak Reel Efektif Döviz Kuru hesaplanmıştır. Daha sonra
Reel Efektif Döviz Kuru ile Kazakistan Sanayi Üretim Endeksi arasındaki uzun
dönemli ilişkinin analizi yapılmıştır. Uygulamalı çalışmalarda Hollanda
Hastalığı hipotezi, reel efektif döviz kurunun değerlenmesine yol açan temel
mal ihracatının ticarete konu olmayan mal sektörlerinde azalmaya yol açması
veya genel olarak ekonominin üretim hacminin bu reel efektif döviz kurlarıyla
ilişkisine bağlı olarak analiz edilmektedir. Bu çalışmada yöntem olarak çok
kırılmalı birim kök testi ile çok kırılmalı tümleşme tekniği kullanılmıştır. Ayrıca,
söz konusu teknikler ile elde edilen ampirik bulguların dirençliliği de ortaya konmuştur.
Bu yönüyle, Kazakistan Ekonomisi'ni yeni teknikler kullanarak ele alan uygulamalı
bir çalışma ile literatüre katkı sunulmaya çalışılmıştır. Bu çalışmada ele
alınan dönem ve veriler dikkate alındığında, Kazakistan Ekonomisi için
“Hollanda Hastalığı” hipotezinin geçerli olduğu bulgusuna ulaşılmıştır.
Özellikle sektörel çeşitlilik ile üretimde mal çeşitliliğine önem veren bir
destek politikasının uygulanmasının önemli olduğu ifade edilebilir. Söz konusu
bulguya bağlı olarak enerji fiyatlarındaki düşüşlerin Kazakistan ekonomik
büyümesi üzerinde olumsuz etkisi olacaktır.

Keywords

Hollanda Hastalığı, Reel Efektif Döviz Kuru, Kazakistan Sanayi Üretim Endeksi, Çok Kırılmalı Tümleşme

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