Para Politikasının Asimetrik Etkileri: Türkiye’de Durum Asimetrisi

Year 2020, Volume: 22 Issue: 3, 949 - 978, 25.12.2020

Can Karabıyık , Ela Çolpan Nart

Abstract

Para politikası ile büyüme arasındaki ilişkiyi araştıran ampirik çalışmalar incelendiğinde, literatürün geniş olduğu, ancak analizlerde genellikle doğrusal yaklaşımların tercih edildiği görülmektedir. Bu yaklaşımlar, para-üretim ilişkisini, ekonominin konjonktürel koşulları gözetilmeksizin açıklamaktadır. Bu çalışma, ekonominin genişleme ve daralma dönemlerinde uygulanan para politikasının çıktı üzerindeki etkisinin asimetrik olup olmadığını araştırmayı amaçlamaktadır. Bu amaçla para-üretim ilişkisi, Markov rejim değişimi modeli ile tahminlenmiş ve para politikasının Türkiye’deki etkilerinin asimetrik olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Markov rejim değişimi modeli bulguları Türkiye ekonomisinin büyüme rejiminde ortalama %1.82 büyüdüğünü, daralma rejiminde ortalama %3.39 küçüldüğünü ve döviz kurundaki artışların büyümeyi yavaşlattığını göstermektedir. Son olarak Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası’nın genişleme rejiminde reel etki meydana getirebildiği ancak durgunluk ile mücadelede reel etki yaratamadığına dair ekonometrik kanıtlar elde edilmiştir.

Keywords

Para Politikası Asimetrisi, Konjonktür Karşıtı Para Politikası, Doğrusal Olmayan Zaman Serileri, Markov Rejim Değişim Modeli

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