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KREDİ HACMİ OTOMOBİL TALEBİ ETKİLEŞİMİ: NEDENSELLİK ANALİZİNDE KÜMÜLATİF TOPLAMLAR YAKLAŞIMI

Year 2018, Volume: 4 Issue: 2, 47 - 69, 25.10.2018
https://doi.org/10.31463/aicusbed.421590

Abstract

Bu çalışmada, Toda ve Yamamoto (1995) ve Hatemi-J (2012) testleri
kullanılarak ticari ve bireysel kredi hacmi ile kayıtlı otomobil sayısı
arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisi analiz edilmiştir. Hatemi-J ve Mustafa (2016)’e
uygun olarak pozitif ve negatif kümülatif toplamlar yardımıyla da kredi hacmi
ve otomobil talebi arasında mevcut olabilecek asimetrik etkiler her iki test
ile değerlendirilmiştir. Çalışmanın bulguları ticari ve bireysel kredi
hacmindeki artışların otomobil talebinin yükselmesine neden olduğu yönünde
olup, ilgili kredi büyüklüğündeki düşüşlerin otomobil talebini düşürmeyeceğini
ortaya koymaktadır. Söz konusu bulgular otomobil sektörünün arz dinamiklerini
ve tüketicilerin alışkanlıklarını talebi canlı tutmaya yetecek kadar güçlü
olduğunun altını çizmektedir. Otomobil sektörünün gelişimini tetiklemek
amacıyla kullanılabilecek kredi genişlemesi politikasının hangi sınırdan
itibaren hane halkını aşırı borçlu hale getireceğinin saptanması önem arz
etmektedir. Her iki nedensellik analizi sonuçları ayrıca, otomobil talebindeki
artışların/azalışların ticari ve bireysel kredi hacmini yükselttiği/düşürdüğü
bulgusuna ulaşmıştır. Otomobil talebindeki değişiklerin ticari ve bireysel
krediler üzerinden bankaların aktif-pasif yapısı üzerindeki sonuçlarının
değerlendirilmesi ise bankacılık sektörünün finansal sağlığı ve finansal
istikrar açılarından önemli bir husus olarak saptanmıştır. Yurt içi otomobil
üretimi ve otomobil talep dinamikleri ile uyumlu olmayan bir kredi genişlemesi
cari açık sorunu büyüteceğinden, kredi hacminin büyüme hızının sınırlandırması
bir makro ihtiyati politika önlemi olarak kullanılabilecektir. 

References

  • Akinci, D. A., Matousek, R., Radić, C., Stewart, N. (2013). Monetary Policy and the Banking Sector in Turkey, Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions & Money, 27, 269-285.
  • Anaya, P., Hachula, M., Offermanns, C. J. (2017). Spillovers of U.S. Unconventional Monetary Policy to Emerging Markets: The Role of Capital Flows, Journal of International Money and Finance, 73, 275-295.
  • Boogen, N., Datta, S., Filippini, M. (2017). Dynamic Models of Residential Electricity Demand: Evidence from Switzerland, Energy Strategy Reviews, 18, 85-92.
  • Chadwick, M. G. (2018). Effectiveness of Monetary and Macroprudential Shocks on Consumer Credit Growth and Volatility in Turkey, Central Bank Review xxx 1-15, Forthcoming.
  • Chanthawong, A., Dhakal, S., Jongwanich, J. (2016). Supply and Demand of Biofuels in the Fuel Market of Thailand: Two Stage Least Square and Three Least Square Approaches, Energy, 114, 431-443.
  • Chen, J., Esteban, S., Shum, M. (2010). Do Sales Tax Credits Stimulate the Automobile Market, International Journal of Industrial Organization, 28, 397-402.
  • Chen, Q., Filardo, A., He, D., Zhu, F. (2016). Financial Crisis, US Unconventional Monetary Policy and International Spillovers, Journal of International Money and Finance, 67, 62-81.
  • Fungáčová, Z., Solanko, L., Weill, L. (2014). Does Competition Influence the Bank Lending Channel in the Euro Area?, Journal of Banking & Finance, 49, 356-366.
  • Funke, M., Kirkby, R., Mihaylovski, P. (2018). House Prices and Macroprudential Policy in an Estimated DSGE Model of New Zealand, Journal of Macroeconomics, 56, 152-171.
  • Galvão, A. B., Giraitis, L., Kapetanios, G., Petrova, K. (2016). A Time Varying DSGE Model with Financial Frictions, Journal of Empirical Finance, 38, 690-716.
  • Gambacorta, L. (2005). Inside the Bank Lending Channel, European Economic Review, 49, 1737-1759.
  • Georgiadis, G. (2016). Determinants of Global Spillovers from US Monetary Policy, Journal of International Money and Finance, 67, 41-61.
  • Hajek, J., Horvath, R. (2018). International Spillovers of (Un) Conventional Monetary Policy: The Effect of the ECB and the US Fed on Non-Euro EU Countries, Economic Systems, 42, 91-105.
  • Hatemi-J, A. (2012). Asymmetric Causality Tests with an Application, Empirical Economics, 43(1), 447-456.
  • Hatemi-J, A., El-Khatib, Y. (2016). An Extension of the Asymmetric Causality Tests for Dealing with Deterministic Trend Y. Components, Applied Economics, 48, 4033-4041.
  • Heryán, T., Palečková, I., Radić, N. (2015). Comparison of Monetary Policy Effects on Lending Channel in EMU and non-EMU Countries: Evidence from Period 1999-2012, Silesian University, School of Business Administration Working Papers, 0003.
  • Heryán, T., Tzeremes, P. G. (2017). The Bank Lending Channel of Monetary Policy in EU Countries During the Global Financial Crisis, Economic Modelling, 67, 10-22.
  • Huo, Z., Ríos-Rull, J. (2015). Tightening Financial Frictions on Households, Recessions, and Price Reallocations, Review of Economic Dynamics, 18, 118-139.
  • Kitapcı, O., Özekicioğlu, H., Kaynar, O., Taştan, S. (2014). The Effect of Economic Policies Applied in Turkey to the Sale of Automobiles: Multiple Regression and Neural Network Analysis, Procedia Social and Behavioral Sciences, 148, 653-661.
  • Kumar, A., Luthra, S., Khandelwala, D. K., Mehta, R., Chaudharya, N., Bhatia, S. (2017). Measuring and Improving Customer Retention at Authorised Automobile Workshops after free Services, Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, 39, 93-102.
  • Lin, S., Ye, H. (2018). The International Credit Channel of U.S. Monetary Policy Transmission to Developing Countries: Evidence from Trade Data, Journal of Development Economics, 133, 33-41.
  • Lütkepohl, H. (2005). New Introduction to Multiple Time Series Analysis, Berlin: Springer.
  • Lütkepohl, H. (2007). Univariate Time Series Analysis, Lütkepohl, H., Krätzig, M., Applied Time Series Econometrics, (8-85), New York: Cambridge University Press.
  • MacKinnon, J. G. (1996). Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests, Journal of Applied Economics, 11(6), 601-618.
  • Le, V. P. M., Meenagh, D., Minford, P., Wickens, M. (2011). How much Nominal Rigidity is There in the US Economy? Testing a New Keynesian DSGE Model Using Indirect Inference, Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control, 35, 2078-2104.
  • Matousek, R., Sarantis, N. (2009). The Bank Lending Channel and Monetary Transmission in Central and Eastern European Countries, Journal of Comparative Economics, 37, 321-334.
  • Mavrotas, G., Kelly, R. (2001). Old Wine in New Bottles: Testing Causality Between Savings and Growth, The Manchester School, 69(1), 97-105.
  • Merola, R. (2015). The Role of Financial Frictions During the Crisis: An Estimated DSGE Model, Economic Modelling, 48, 70-82.
  • Mulalic, I., Rouwendal, J. (2015). The Impact of Fixed and Variable Cost on Automobile Demand: Evidence from Denmark, Economics of Transportation, 4, 227–240.
  • Pantula, S. G. (1989). Testing for Unit Roots in Time Series Data, Econometric Theory, 5(2), 256-271.
  • Rehman Khan, S. A., Zhang, Y., Anees, M., Golpîra, H., Lahmar, A., Qianli, D. (2018). Green Supply Chain Management, Economic Growth and Environment: A GMM Based Evidence, Journal of Cleaner Production, 185, 588-599.
  • Rychalovska, Y. (2016). The Implications of Financial Frictions and Imperfect Knowledge in the Estimated DSGE Model of the U.S. Economy, Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control, 73, 259-282.
  • Shafiei, E., Davidsdottir, B., Fazeli, R., Leaver, J., Stefansson, H., Asgeirsson, E. I. (2018). Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Incentives to Promote Electric Vehicles in Iceland: Implications for Government and Consumer Costs, Energy Policy, 114, 431-443.
  • Soderbery, A. (2015). Estimating Import Supply and Demand Elasticities: Analysis and Implications, Journal of International Economics, 96, 1-17.
  • Şafak, F. (2018). 1994 Ekonomik Krizi Sonrası Türk Otomotiv Sektörünün Gelişimi ve Analizi, İstanbul Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Teknoloji ve Sanayi İktisadı Bilim Dalı Basılmamış Yüksek Lisans Tezi, İstanbul.
  • Tansoy Yildirim, Y., Akar, C., Akar, S., Celik, C. (2012). The Relationship Between Automobile Loans and Automobile Production Amount as a Key Factor for Production Strategy, Procedia Social and Behavioral Sciences, 58, 1476-1481.
  • Tillmann, P. (2016). Unconventional Monetary Policy and the Spillovers to Emerging Markets, Journal of International Money and Finance, 66, 136-156.
  • Toda, H. Y., Yamamoto, T. (1995). Statistical Inference in Vector Autoregressions with Possibly Integrated Processes, Journal of Econometrics, 66(1-2), 225-250.
  • Torres, J. L. (2013). Introduction to Dynamic Macroeconomic General Equilibrium Models, Vernon Press: Malaga.
  • Vogelsang, T. J. (1993). Unpublished Computer Program.
  • Walks, A. (2018). Driving the Poor into Debt? Automobile Loans, Transport Disadvantage, and Automobile Dependence, Transport Policy, 65, 137–149.
Year 2018, Volume: 4 Issue: 2, 47 - 69, 25.10.2018
https://doi.org/10.31463/aicusbed.421590

Abstract

References

  • Akinci, D. A., Matousek, R., Radić, C., Stewart, N. (2013). Monetary Policy and the Banking Sector in Turkey, Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions & Money, 27, 269-285.
  • Anaya, P., Hachula, M., Offermanns, C. J. (2017). Spillovers of U.S. Unconventional Monetary Policy to Emerging Markets: The Role of Capital Flows, Journal of International Money and Finance, 73, 275-295.
  • Boogen, N., Datta, S., Filippini, M. (2017). Dynamic Models of Residential Electricity Demand: Evidence from Switzerland, Energy Strategy Reviews, 18, 85-92.
  • Chadwick, M. G. (2018). Effectiveness of Monetary and Macroprudential Shocks on Consumer Credit Growth and Volatility in Turkey, Central Bank Review xxx 1-15, Forthcoming.
  • Chanthawong, A., Dhakal, S., Jongwanich, J. (2016). Supply and Demand of Biofuels in the Fuel Market of Thailand: Two Stage Least Square and Three Least Square Approaches, Energy, 114, 431-443.
  • Chen, J., Esteban, S., Shum, M. (2010). Do Sales Tax Credits Stimulate the Automobile Market, International Journal of Industrial Organization, 28, 397-402.
  • Chen, Q., Filardo, A., He, D., Zhu, F. (2016). Financial Crisis, US Unconventional Monetary Policy and International Spillovers, Journal of International Money and Finance, 67, 62-81.
  • Fungáčová, Z., Solanko, L., Weill, L. (2014). Does Competition Influence the Bank Lending Channel in the Euro Area?, Journal of Banking & Finance, 49, 356-366.
  • Funke, M., Kirkby, R., Mihaylovski, P. (2018). House Prices and Macroprudential Policy in an Estimated DSGE Model of New Zealand, Journal of Macroeconomics, 56, 152-171.
  • Galvão, A. B., Giraitis, L., Kapetanios, G., Petrova, K. (2016). A Time Varying DSGE Model with Financial Frictions, Journal of Empirical Finance, 38, 690-716.
  • Gambacorta, L. (2005). Inside the Bank Lending Channel, European Economic Review, 49, 1737-1759.
  • Georgiadis, G. (2016). Determinants of Global Spillovers from US Monetary Policy, Journal of International Money and Finance, 67, 41-61.
  • Hajek, J., Horvath, R. (2018). International Spillovers of (Un) Conventional Monetary Policy: The Effect of the ECB and the US Fed on Non-Euro EU Countries, Economic Systems, 42, 91-105.
  • Hatemi-J, A. (2012). Asymmetric Causality Tests with an Application, Empirical Economics, 43(1), 447-456.
  • Hatemi-J, A., El-Khatib, Y. (2016). An Extension of the Asymmetric Causality Tests for Dealing with Deterministic Trend Y. Components, Applied Economics, 48, 4033-4041.
  • Heryán, T., Palečková, I., Radić, N. (2015). Comparison of Monetary Policy Effects on Lending Channel in EMU and non-EMU Countries: Evidence from Period 1999-2012, Silesian University, School of Business Administration Working Papers, 0003.
  • Heryán, T., Tzeremes, P. G. (2017). The Bank Lending Channel of Monetary Policy in EU Countries During the Global Financial Crisis, Economic Modelling, 67, 10-22.
  • Huo, Z., Ríos-Rull, J. (2015). Tightening Financial Frictions on Households, Recessions, and Price Reallocations, Review of Economic Dynamics, 18, 118-139.
  • Kitapcı, O., Özekicioğlu, H., Kaynar, O., Taştan, S. (2014). The Effect of Economic Policies Applied in Turkey to the Sale of Automobiles: Multiple Regression and Neural Network Analysis, Procedia Social and Behavioral Sciences, 148, 653-661.
  • Kumar, A., Luthra, S., Khandelwala, D. K., Mehta, R., Chaudharya, N., Bhatia, S. (2017). Measuring and Improving Customer Retention at Authorised Automobile Workshops after free Services, Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, 39, 93-102.
  • Lin, S., Ye, H. (2018). The International Credit Channel of U.S. Monetary Policy Transmission to Developing Countries: Evidence from Trade Data, Journal of Development Economics, 133, 33-41.
  • Lütkepohl, H. (2005). New Introduction to Multiple Time Series Analysis, Berlin: Springer.
  • Lütkepohl, H. (2007). Univariate Time Series Analysis, Lütkepohl, H., Krätzig, M., Applied Time Series Econometrics, (8-85), New York: Cambridge University Press.
  • MacKinnon, J. G. (1996). Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests, Journal of Applied Economics, 11(6), 601-618.
  • Le, V. P. M., Meenagh, D., Minford, P., Wickens, M. (2011). How much Nominal Rigidity is There in the US Economy? Testing a New Keynesian DSGE Model Using Indirect Inference, Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control, 35, 2078-2104.
  • Matousek, R., Sarantis, N. (2009). The Bank Lending Channel and Monetary Transmission in Central and Eastern European Countries, Journal of Comparative Economics, 37, 321-334.
  • Mavrotas, G., Kelly, R. (2001). Old Wine in New Bottles: Testing Causality Between Savings and Growth, The Manchester School, 69(1), 97-105.
  • Merola, R. (2015). The Role of Financial Frictions During the Crisis: An Estimated DSGE Model, Economic Modelling, 48, 70-82.
  • Mulalic, I., Rouwendal, J. (2015). The Impact of Fixed and Variable Cost on Automobile Demand: Evidence from Denmark, Economics of Transportation, 4, 227–240.
  • Pantula, S. G. (1989). Testing for Unit Roots in Time Series Data, Econometric Theory, 5(2), 256-271.
  • Rehman Khan, S. A., Zhang, Y., Anees, M., Golpîra, H., Lahmar, A., Qianli, D. (2018). Green Supply Chain Management, Economic Growth and Environment: A GMM Based Evidence, Journal of Cleaner Production, 185, 588-599.
  • Rychalovska, Y. (2016). The Implications of Financial Frictions and Imperfect Knowledge in the Estimated DSGE Model of the U.S. Economy, Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control, 73, 259-282.
  • Shafiei, E., Davidsdottir, B., Fazeli, R., Leaver, J., Stefansson, H., Asgeirsson, E. I. (2018). Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Incentives to Promote Electric Vehicles in Iceland: Implications for Government and Consumer Costs, Energy Policy, 114, 431-443.
  • Soderbery, A. (2015). Estimating Import Supply and Demand Elasticities: Analysis and Implications, Journal of International Economics, 96, 1-17.
  • Şafak, F. (2018). 1994 Ekonomik Krizi Sonrası Türk Otomotiv Sektörünün Gelişimi ve Analizi, İstanbul Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Teknoloji ve Sanayi İktisadı Bilim Dalı Basılmamış Yüksek Lisans Tezi, İstanbul.
  • Tansoy Yildirim, Y., Akar, C., Akar, S., Celik, C. (2012). The Relationship Between Automobile Loans and Automobile Production Amount as a Key Factor for Production Strategy, Procedia Social and Behavioral Sciences, 58, 1476-1481.
  • Tillmann, P. (2016). Unconventional Monetary Policy and the Spillovers to Emerging Markets, Journal of International Money and Finance, 66, 136-156.
  • Toda, H. Y., Yamamoto, T. (1995). Statistical Inference in Vector Autoregressions with Possibly Integrated Processes, Journal of Econometrics, 66(1-2), 225-250.
  • Torres, J. L. (2013). Introduction to Dynamic Macroeconomic General Equilibrium Models, Vernon Press: Malaga.
  • Vogelsang, T. J. (1993). Unpublished Computer Program.
  • Walks, A. (2018). Driving the Poor into Debt? Automobile Loans, Transport Disadvantage, and Automobile Dependence, Transport Policy, 65, 137–149.
There are 41 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Journal Section MAKALELER
Authors

Oğuzhan Özçelebi

Furkan Şafak This is me

Publication Date October 25, 2018
Submission Date May 7, 2018
Published in Issue Year 2018 Volume: 4 Issue: 2

Cite

APA Özçelebi, O., & Şafak, F. (2018). KREDİ HACMİ OTOMOBİL TALEBİ ETKİLEŞİMİ: NEDENSELLİK ANALİZİNDE KÜMÜLATİF TOPLAMLAR YAKLAŞIMI. Ağrı İbrahim Çeçen Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 4(2), 47-69. https://doi.org/10.31463/aicusbed.421590