Research Article

Structural divergence in Türkiye’s paper consumption: Category-specific evidence from an ARDL and ECM framework

Number: 12 June 23, 2026
TR EN

Structural divergence in Türkiye’s paper consumption: Category-specific evidence from an ARDL and ECM framework

Abstract

Background and Aims: This study examined the long-run evolution of paper consumption in Türkiye over 2000–2024 by distinguishing printing and writing papers from recovered paper. Methods: Annual data from FAOSTAT, the World Bank, and UN Comtrade were used to construct category-specific apparent-consumption series, and descriptive analysis, ADF, KPSS, Zivot–Andrews tests, ARDL bounds testing, and ECM estimation were applied. Results: Printing and writing paper consumption rose to about 1.25 million tonnes in the mid-2010s and then declined to about 0.87 million tonnes in 2024; over the same period, domestic production coverage fell from 0.53 to 0.29, while import dependence increased from 0.48 to 0.79. Recovered paper consumption increased from about 0.94 to 4.21 million tonnes, but its domestic production coverage weakened to 0.64 and import dependence rose to 0.37 by 2024. Cointegration was supported only for printing and writing papers; in the preferred model, the bounds F-statistic was 6.323 and the error-correction coefficient was -0.978 (p=0.001). Conclusion: Paper consumption in Türkiye did not operate as a single integrated market; instead, it followed category-specific demand paths and supply structures. Strengthening domestic collection, sorting, and recycling capacity was concluded to be essential for a more resilient paper economy.

Keywords

Thanks

The author expresses sincere gratitude to Kastamonu University for providing the supportive academic environment and facilities that enabled this study. Additionally, the author acknowledges the Council of Higher Education of Türkiye (CoHE) for its institutional support and commitment to advancing research and higher education.

References

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Details

Primary Language

English

Subjects

Forestry Sciences (Other)

Journal Section

Research Article

Publication Date

June 23, 2026

Submission Date

April 27, 2026

Acceptance Date

June 10, 2026

Published in Issue

Year 2026 Number: 12

APA
Aydoğan, H. (2026). Structural divergence in Türkiye’s paper consumption: Category-specific evidence from an ARDL and ECM framework. Anadolu Orman Araştırmaları Dergisi, 12, 1938877. https://doi.org/10.53516/ajfr.1938877
AMA
1.Aydoğan H. Structural divergence in Türkiye’s paper consumption: Category-specific evidence from an ARDL and ECM framework. AJFR. 2026;(12):1938877. doi:10.53516/ajfr.1938877
Chicago
Aydoğan, Hakan. 2026. “Structural Divergence in Türkiye’s Paper Consumption: Category-Specific Evidence from an ARDL and ECM Framework”. Anadolu Orman Araştırmaları Dergisi, nos. 12: 1938877. https://doi.org/10.53516/ajfr.1938877.
EndNote
Aydoğan H (June 1, 2026) Structural divergence in Türkiye’s paper consumption: Category-specific evidence from an ARDL and ECM framework. Anadolu Orman Araştırmaları Dergisi 12 1938877.
IEEE
[1]H. Aydoğan, “Structural divergence in Türkiye’s paper consumption: Category-specific evidence from an ARDL and ECM framework”, AJFR, no. 12, p. 1938877, June 2026, doi: 10.53516/ajfr.1938877.
ISNAD
Aydoğan, Hakan. “Structural Divergence in Türkiye’s Paper Consumption: Category-Specific Evidence from an ARDL and ECM Framework”. Anadolu Orman Araştırmaları Dergisi. 12 (June 1, 2026): 1938877. https://doi.org/10.53516/ajfr.1938877.
JAMA
1.Aydoğan H. Structural divergence in Türkiye’s paper consumption: Category-specific evidence from an ARDL and ECM framework. AJFR. 2026;:1938877.
MLA
Aydoğan, Hakan. “Structural Divergence in Türkiye’s Paper Consumption: Category-Specific Evidence from an ARDL and ECM Framework”. Anadolu Orman Araştırmaları Dergisi, no. 12, June 2026, p. 1938877, doi:10.53516/ajfr.1938877.
Vancouver
1.Hakan Aydoğan. Structural divergence in Türkiye’s paper consumption: Category-specific evidence from an ARDL and ECM framework. AJFR. 2026 Jun. 1;(12):1938877. doi:10.53516/ajfr.1938877