Araştırma Makalesi

Structural divergence in Türkiye’s paper consumption: Category-specific evidence from an ARDL and ECM framework

Sayı: 12 23 Haziran 2026
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Structural divergence in Türkiye’s paper consumption: Category-specific evidence from an ARDL and ECM framework

Öz

Background and Aims: This study examined the long-run evolution of paper consumption in Türkiye over 2000–2024 by distinguishing printing and writing papers from recovered paper. Methods: Annual data from FAOSTAT, the World Bank, and UN Comtrade were used to construct category-specific apparent-consumption series, and descriptive analysis, ADF, KPSS, Zivot–Andrews tests, ARDL bounds testing, and ECM estimation were applied. Results: Printing and writing paper consumption rose to about 1.25 million tonnes in the mid-2010s and then declined to about 0.87 million tonnes in 2024; over the same period, domestic production coverage fell from 0.53 to 0.29, while import dependence increased from 0.48 to 0.79. Recovered paper consumption increased from about 0.94 to 4.21 million tonnes, but its domestic production coverage weakened to 0.64 and import dependence rose to 0.37 by 2024. Cointegration was supported only for printing and writing papers; in the preferred model, the bounds F-statistic was 6.323 and the error-correction coefficient was -0.978 (p=0.001). Conclusion: Paper consumption in Türkiye did not operate as a single integrated market; instead, it followed category-specific demand paths and supply structures. Strengthening domestic collection, sorting, and recycling capacity was concluded to be essential for a more resilient paper economy.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Teşekkür

The author expresses sincere gratitude to Kastamonu University for providing the supportive academic environment and facilities that enabled this study. Additionally, the author acknowledges the Council of Higher Education of Türkiye (CoHE) for its institutional support and commitment to advancing research and higher education.

Kaynakça

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  2. Adeleye, N., Osabuohien, E., Bowale, E., Matthew, O., Oduntan, E., 2018. Financial reforms and credit growth in Nigeria: empirical insights from ARDL and ECM techniques. International Review of Applied Economics, 32(6), 807-820. https://doi.org/10.1080/02692171.2017.1375466.
  3. Aich, B. R., Tareque, M., Rahman, M. M., 2026. Testing the modeling relevance for growth, inflation, and unemployment: analysis using VAR, ARDL, and DOLS. Quality & Quantity, 1-28. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11135-025-02497-w.
  4. Aydin, M., Koc, P., Tumay, M., 2023. Investigating the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis with recovered paper consumption, human development index, urbanization, and forest footprint. International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology, 20(8), 9053-9064. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13762-023-05049-7.
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  6. Aydogan, H., 2026b. WSF-Bench: A regime-aware benchmarking framework for sustainable monitoring of wood-related production and trade systems. Journal of Cleaner Production, 571, 148778. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2026.148778.
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Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil

İngilizce

Konular

Ormancılık (Diğer)

Bölüm

Araştırma Makalesi

Yayımlanma Tarihi

23 Haziran 2026

Gönderilme Tarihi

27 Nisan 2026

Kabul Tarihi

10 Haziran 2026

Yayımlandığı Sayı

Yıl 2026 Sayı: 12

Kaynak Göster

APA
Aydoğan, H. (2026). Structural divergence in Türkiye’s paper consumption: Category-specific evidence from an ARDL and ECM framework. Anadolu Orman Araştırmaları Dergisi, 12, 1938877. https://doi.org/10.53516/ajfr.1938877
AMA
1.Aydoğan H. Structural divergence in Türkiye’s paper consumption: Category-specific evidence from an ARDL and ECM framework. AOAD. 2026;(12):1938877. doi:10.53516/ajfr.1938877
Chicago
Aydoğan, Hakan. 2026. “Structural divergence in Türkiye’s paper consumption: Category-specific evidence from an ARDL and ECM framework”. Anadolu Orman Araştırmaları Dergisi, sy 12: 1938877. https://doi.org/10.53516/ajfr.1938877.
EndNote
Aydoğan H (01 Haziran 2026) Structural divergence in Türkiye’s paper consumption: Category-specific evidence from an ARDL and ECM framework. Anadolu Orman Araştırmaları Dergisi 12 1938877.
IEEE
[1]H. Aydoğan, “Structural divergence in Türkiye’s paper consumption: Category-specific evidence from an ARDL and ECM framework”, AOAD, sy 12, s. 1938877, Haz. 2026, doi: 10.53516/ajfr.1938877.
ISNAD
Aydoğan, Hakan. “Structural divergence in Türkiye’s paper consumption: Category-specific evidence from an ARDL and ECM framework”. Anadolu Orman Araştırmaları Dergisi. 12 (01 Haziran 2026): 1938877. https://doi.org/10.53516/ajfr.1938877.
JAMA
1.Aydoğan H. Structural divergence in Türkiye’s paper consumption: Category-specific evidence from an ARDL and ECM framework. AOAD. 2026;:1938877.
MLA
Aydoğan, Hakan. “Structural divergence in Türkiye’s paper consumption: Category-specific evidence from an ARDL and ECM framework”. Anadolu Orman Araştırmaları Dergisi, sy 12, Haziran 2026, s. 1938877, doi:10.53516/ajfr.1938877.
Vancouver
1.Hakan Aydoğan. Structural divergence in Türkiye’s paper consumption: Category-specific evidence from an ARDL and ECM framework. AOAD. 01 Haziran 2026;(12):1938877. doi:10.53516/ajfr.1938877