KREDİ DERECELENDİRME VE ŞİRKET TEMETTÜ POLİTİKASI: TÜRKİYE PİYASASINDA HİSSE GERİ ALIM DAVRANIŞI

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 12 Sayı: 28, 24 - 51, 31.08.2025

Mustafa Çağrı Aykaç , Burak Pirgaip

https://doi.org/10.58884/akademik-hassasiyetler.1725252

Öz

Bu çalışma, 2016-2024 yılları arasında, kredi derecelendirme notlarının şirketlerin kâr payı dağıtım kararlarını sınırlayıp sınırlamadığını incelemekte ve özellikle Türkiye hisse senedi piyasasında pay geri alım davranışına odaklanmaktadır. Firma düzeyinde veriler kullanılarak yıl ve sektör sabit etkilerini içeren probit, logit ve OLS modelleri ile yapılan analizler, daha yüksek kredi notlarına sahip firmaların hisse geri alımı yapma olasılığının anlamlı şekilde daha düşük olduğunu ve bu firmaların geri alım yaptıklarında ise daha küçük tutarlarda işlem gerçekleştirdiklerini ortaya koymaktadır. Buna ek olarak bu bulgular, kredi notu koruma kaygılarının firmaların sermaye iade etme isteklerini sınırladığına işaret eden “derecelendirme kısıtı hipotezi”ni desteklemektedir. Ayrıca, kârlılık ve firma büyüklüğü önemli belirleyiciler olarak öne çıkarken, kaldıraç oranı ve nakit varlıkların etkisi daha zayıf görünmektedir. Özellikle, COVID sonrası dönemde kredi notlarının kısıtlayıcı etkisinin daha belirgin hâle geldiği görülmekte olup, bu durum, artan ekonomik belirsizlik ortamında yöneticilerin daha temkinli davranmalarıyla ilişkili olduğunu düşündürmektedir. Bulgular, dışsal kredi değerlendirmelerinin, özellikle kredi derecelendirme kapsamının arttığı gelişen piyasalarda, şirketlerin iç finansal kararlarını şekillendirmede oynadığı rolü vurgulamaktadır. Sonuçlar, kredi riski ile şirketlerin kâr dağıtım politikaları arasındaki etkileşimle ilgilenen sermaye sahipleri, yöneticiler, yatırımcılar ve politika yapıcılar için pratik çıkarımlar sunmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Kredi Derecelendirme , Pay Geri Alımları Türkiye , Temettü Politikası , Probit Analizi

CREDIT RATINGS AND CORPORATE PAYOUTS: SHARE REPURCHASE BEHAVIOR IN THE TURKISH MARKET

Öz

This study examines whether credit ratings constrain corporate payout decisions, focusing on share repurchase behavior in the Turkish stock market during the period 2016-2024. Using firm-level data and a series of probit, logit and OLS models, we find robust evidence which shows that firms with higher credit ratings are significantly less likely to engage in share repurchases and, when they do, they repurchase smaller amounts. These results support the rating constraint hypothesis, suggesting that concerns over preserving credit quality limit firms’ willingness to return capital to shareholders. Profitability and firm size also emerge as important drivers, while leverage and cash holdings appear less influential. Importantly, we show that the constraining effect of credit ratings is more pronounced in the post-COVID period, when economic uncertainty likely heightened managerial conservatism. Our findings highlight the role of external credit assessments in shaping internal financial decisions, particularly in emerging markets with growing credit rating coverage. The results carry practical implications for shareholders, managers, investors, and policymakers concerned with the interplay between credit risk and corporate payout policy.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Credit Ratings , Payout Policy , Probit Analysis , Share Repurchases Türkiye

Kaynakça

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