Application of Monte Carlo Simulation Technique for Slopes Stabilized with Piles

Yesim Tuskan; Yusuf Erzin

doi:10.35414/akufemubid.1287644

Research Article

Kazıklarla Güçlendirilmiş Şevlerde Monte Carlo Simülasyon Yöntemi Uygulaması

Year 2024, , 117 - 125, 27.02.2024

Yesim Tuskan , Yusuf Erzin

https://doi.org/10.35414/akufemubid.1287644

Abstract

Bu çalışmada, kazıklarla güçlendirilmiş bir şevin simülasyon modeli geliştirilmiştir. Manisa-İzmir Devlet Yolu (Türkiye) doğu kesiminde yer alan hasar görmüş bir şevin güvenlik sayısının (FS) kemerlenme etkisi göz önüne alınarak değerlendirilmesi için iki boyutlu sonlu elemanlar yöntemi (2D-FEM) kullanılmıştır. Ek olarak, güvenilirliğe dayalı bir tasarım yöntemi olan Monte Carlo Simülasyonu (MCS), deprem sırasında güçlendirilmiş şevlerin stabilitesini ve güçlendirilmiş şevlerin kayma olasılığını doğru bir şekilde tahmin etmek için kullanılmıştır. Olasılık ve istatistiksel teori bilgisi, önerilen problemi çözmek ve herhangi bir fiziksel test olmaksızın sayısal çözümler üretmek için deterministik çalışmalarda kullanılmaktadır. Geliştirilen MCS ve FEM modellerinin tahmin kapasitesini değerlendirmek için güvenilirlik indeksi ve yenilme olasılığı hesaplanmıştır. Son olarak, hesaplanan indisler hem geliştirilmiş MCS'nin hem de FEM'in heyelanın FS değerlerini oldukça verimli bir şekilde tahmin edebildiğini açıkça ortaya koymaktadır.

Keywords

şev stabilitesi, monte carlo simülasyonu, Güvenirlik Değerlendirmesi, sonlu elemanlar yöntemi

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